2010 WPAC Season

[KWT]

So tis possible this Atlantic season ends up with higher numbers than the WPAC season this year...wonder whether it can top the ACE though, bet that hasn't happened very often if ever...

[Aslkahuna]

1998 was a post Niño season in WPAC like this year and post Niño seasons are notoriously slow to start and end up active but with lower than average numbers usually. I believe the ATL beat out WPAC in terms of activity in 2005.

Steve

[cycloneye]

When was the last time the WPAC did not have a cyclone for over 3 months as the first storm formed by mid March? We all know that the basin is active almost all year around,but this year only a few invests have popped but not have lasted past a couple of days.

[KWT]

Yeah there have been a decent number of invests but just nothing seem to be able to develop out there...

Surely can't be long now before something pops...

[Chacor]

When was the last time the WPAC did not have a cyclone for over 3 months as the first storm formed by mid March? We all know that the basin is active almost all year around,but this year only a few invests have popped but not have lasted past a couple of days.

Unless someone has the time and beats me to it, I'll have a look at the JMA records and have an answer by Sunday my time as I won't be around tomorrow).

[Chacor]

Using JMA (10-min winds) data going back to 1977,

The last time a TC formed by mid March and we did not have the next storm for exactly three months or more was in 1993, when 9301 Severe Tropical Storm Irma became a TS on March 13, 1993; 9302 Typhoon Koryn only became a TS on June 21. 1993 ended with 28 tropical storms according to JMA data.

Before that, the last time it happened was 1990; 9001 Severe Tropical Storm Koryn became a TS on January 13 and the next storm 9002 Tropical Storm Lewis became a TS on April 29; there were 29 tropical storms that year. It also happened in 1989 (32 storms), 1988 (31 storms), 1987 (23 storms), 1979 (24 storms) and 1978 (30 storms).

Code: Select all

Years when first TC formed on or before Mar 23 and second TC formed exactly 3 months or more later

YEAR   FIRST TC (TS)   SECOND TC (TS)   FINAL TOTAL
2010   MARCH 23 (24)
1993   MARCH 09 (13)   JUNE   15 (21)   28 STORMS
1990   JANRY 12 (13)   APRIL  28 (29)   29 STORMS
1989   JANRY 15 (18)   APRIL  17 (18)   32 STORMS
1988   JANRY 07 (08)   MAY    28 (30)   31 STORMS
1987   JANRY 07 (09)   APRIL  09 (11)   23 STORMS
1979   DECMB 31 (02)   MARCH  19 (21)   24 STORMS
1978   JANRY 06 (10)   APRIL  17 (18)   30 STORMS

[KWT]

Still pretty slow in the WPAC, now only real comparable season at the moment is 1998, which interestingly enough is a good match with regards to the development of the La Nina.

[cycloneye]

Finnaly, after almost four months after the first storm, it looks like the WPAC will wake up with a system that may develop into the second storm of the season.

[KWT]

Yep, I'd be a little surprised if this season is as slow as 1998 but unless it gets a big ramp up now things should stay a little surpressed I feel for most of the season.

[Chacor]

We finally have Tropical Storm 1002 Conson on July 12. It is the latest-forming second storm since 1998 (August 3).

[cycloneye]

The folks of TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) released it's July forecast for the WPAC=23/14/7

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[Chacor]

I don't believe, or particularly care about, what TSR says. They're not yet a respected forecasting organisation and are really just another commercial enterprise, imo.

Conson's looking good to become our first typhoon of the year.

[KWT]

To be honest though it looks reasonable enough, I'm personally been thinking something around that figure myself. Indeed could be a little lower given the current set-up globally is VERY close to 1998 but I can't imagine it being quite that slow.

[cycloneye]

This question is for those who know a lot more about the stats of the WPAC than me.

How is the season running so far in terms of the averages, above, normal or below?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... index.html

[StormingB81]

From what I have read and looked into...It is below average but not unusual for a post nino season

[Typhoon10]

I really think we are in for a very active August and September!

[KWT]

Its caught itself up somewhat cycloneye though its probably still a little below average. The most noteable thing though is how every system has not been able to get too strong, by now most seasons would have had a big un (3-4-5) I believe.

[Typhoon Hunter]

The average number of storms to have formed by 29th July in Wpac is 8.2, so this season is just over 5 storms behind average. SSTs are above average across a large swathe of the Wpac so I do expect storms to keep popping up late into the season but for overall activity to be below average.

In terms of numbers of named storms the average in the Wpac is just over 26. Last season above average was in 2004. EURO hinting at development next week around Philippines and S China Sea.

[Typhoon10]

Another invest pops up, 94W. Do we think the conditions for August will be productive for systems?

[StormingB81]

With all them storms in the WPAC something has to develop right?