Models show low pressure forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico

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baygirl_1
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#41 Postby baygirl_1 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:00 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I wonder if TC Development like the HWRF and GFDL suggest could potentially churn the oil away from land, and be something of a saving grace?


What's the possibility of this? It never actually shows the system going inland...

Generally what they've told us in Mobile is that the worst case scenario for us is a storm hitting west of our area (MS/LA) as it would bring South or Southwest winds-- driving the oil to our coastline. Another concern we've been told is that a storm could aerosolize the oil-- oil droplets could be carried on the wind and be deposited on houses, trees, etc.
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#42 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:09 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:I wonder if TC Development like the HWRF and GFDL suggest could potentially churn the oil away from land, and be something of a saving grace?


What's the possibility of this? It never actually shows the system going inland...

Generally what they've told us in Mobile is that the worst case scenario for us is a storm hitting west of our area (MS/LA) as it would bring South or Southwest winds-- driving the oil to our coastline. Another concern we've been told is that a storm could aerosolize the oil-- oil droplets could be carried on the wind and be deposited on houses, trees, etc.



I really hope all the storms manage to avoid the N GOM this year.. though I am not sure that is very likely
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#43 Postby bob rulz » Wed Jun 30, 2010 7:25 pm

I swear the latest visible frame shows something trying to develop some curvature in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It could just be a trick of the clouds though.
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 30, 2010 8:23 pm

A cold front coming all the way down to the Gulf coast needs to be watched for possible development at this time of the year.
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#45 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 30, 2010 8:25 pm

Yeah without a doubt Hurakan because with sea surface temps running well above normal even if the unsettled conditions from Alex, and shear decreasing as soon as Alex drives inland conditions probably could be condusive if a system can take its time and have a few days down there.
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#46 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 30, 2010 8:45 pm

CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010063012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#47 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Jun 30, 2010 8:58 pm

Our chief meteorologist at 6 mentioned it as well. Again showed it just south of Tallahassee in the gulf early friday morning then moving a bit offshore then due west towards se la for the weekend. Nothing strong just a possible big rain maker not currently forecast by the nws.
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Re:

#48 Postby lonelymike » Wed Jun 30, 2010 9:13 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah without a doubt Hurakan because with sea surface temps running well above normal even if the unsettled conditions from Alex, and shear decreasing as soon as Alex drives inland conditions probably could be condusive if a system can take its time and have a few days down there.


Temps were running at 81 degrees in Pensacola yesterday. Not too terribly horrible.
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#49 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 30, 2010 10:07 pm

Image

Image

HWRF and GFDL showing something
Last edited by HURAKAN on Thu Jul 01, 2010 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#50 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Jun 30, 2010 10:26 pm

Once again talked about this possible low here at 10. Said we could be in for a soggy weekend IF this actually develops. Did sound a little more optimistic that a surface low could form around the florida panhandle, move southwest in the gulf, and then slowly move westward towards LA. Will be interesting to see if some other models start to show this in the next day or two.
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#51 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Jul 01, 2010 12:58 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Once again talked about this possible low here at 10. Said we could be in for a soggy weekend IF this actually develops. Did sound a little more optimistic that a surface low could form around the florida panhandle, move southwest in the gulf, and then slowly move westward towards LA. Will be interesting to see if some other models start to show this in the next day or two.


Heard the same report from local met in Lafayette. He said that's why we are keeping the rain chances above average for the rest of the week and into the weekend. We're waterlogged already from all of the tropical rains swung up by Alex here along the coast.
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#52 Postby BigA » Thu Jul 01, 2010 1:10 am

CFS, CMC and WRF show a weak surface low developing in the northern Gulf as of the 00 runs. None make it very strong.
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#53 Postby ronjon » Thu Jul 01, 2010 5:36 am

Vorticity plot from 00Z GFS:

Image
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#54 Postby ronjon » Thu Jul 01, 2010 5:47 am

Looks like a surface trough of heavy convection is left over from Alex along the northen GOM. Add a decaying front to the mix. Something to watch for home grown development.

Image
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#55 Postby Cryomaniac » Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:58 am

Where are the "Bears watching" pictures :lol:
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Re:

#56 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:12 am

Cryomaniac wrote:Where are the "Bears watching" pictures :lol:


Here are some Bears watching:
Image
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#57 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:18 am

Not a picture, but more of a nice "bears watching" discussion from our BTR/MSY office...

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB FORMING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LOCATION HAS SHIFTED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. THE 00Z RUN
TODAY SHOWS THE LOW FORMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...THEN THE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHILE THE 00Z
CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AS THE GFS BUT SLOWER. AM
FAVORING THE WEAKER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THIS MEANS
THERE SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH DRY AIR PULLED SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND MAV GUIDANCE.
THERE WILL BE DRIER/HOTTER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CLOSE TO OUR
NORTHERN BORDER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL
HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
MID SOUTH AREA.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTING WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF ANY SURFACE LOW OR WAVE THAT
MOVES WEST NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE GFS IS SHOWING
A STRENGTHENING AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW /TROPICAL?/ MOVING
RIGHT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEAVY RAIN RETURNING TO AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...AM FAVORING THE WEAKER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
SHOWING EITHER A WEAKER LOW OR WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
AT A FASTER SPEED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES ON THE HIGH
SIDE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

Sounds like quite a few eyes will be glued to the gulf once again this this weekend. Are UL conditions favorable for some suprise strengthening to maybe a weak, coast hugging Bonnie?
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:46 am

Image

Bertha in 2002 had a similar development.
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Re: GFDL shows low forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

#59 Postby Roxy » Thu Jul 01, 2010 8:31 am

I'll take a little more clouds and rain, being 7 months pregnant it's nice to have the lower temps and rain!

ETA: didn't Allison spin up about that area too???
Last edited by Roxy on Thu Jul 01, 2010 8:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#60 Postby rockyman » Thu Jul 01, 2010 8:31 am

Probably an optical illlusion, but there does appear to be a very slow spin well south of Mobile:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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