Tropical wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N50W TO INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA
NEAR 8N61W MOVING W 15-10 KT. A LARGE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 8N.

AFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

Latest

[KWT]

Looks to me that the region to watch is the southern region of the wave up through towards the middle section where the deepest region of convection is right now. Certainly could end up being an invest down the line.

[Weatherfreak000]

Vorticity increasing. Strong candidate for 97L

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been requiered for Guadeloupe, Martinica and the Northern Leewards due to the proximity of the strong twave that should bring strong showers and tstorms tonight but especially tommorow.
http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Yeah I agree this probably has got a strong chance of becoming Invest 97L. The Caribbean sure is popping off invests and systems recently, as you'd expect as the most favourable part of the MJO phase comes along.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[ConvergenceZone]

Boy you ain't kidding KWT.....Friday i was thinking we were going to enter a lull for about 3 to 4 weeks, which is typical this time of year. Then today, invests(and potential invests) are spitting out like crazy.....

[Ivanhater]

Wow..they just keep rolling down the pike. Still quite early in the season and looks like after Alex, there will be no slowdown anytime soon.

This one will likely slow down and start wrapping up in the Western Caribbean as well. Just my opinion...

[KWT]

Boy you ain't kidding KWT.....Friday i was thinking we were going to enter a lull for about 3 to 4 weeks, which is typical this time of year. Then today, invests(and potential invests) are spitting out like crazy.....

To be honest I think my own personally call of 3/1/1 is going to bust too low, if I had to make a new call now I'd go with 4/2/1 instead...but there ya go!

I agree Ivanhater, I think this is future 97L but for now it looks too linear and spread out, though I'm seeing subtle signs of change.

[bvigal]

This is the wave we were remarking about a week ago Saturday in
Large Wave Rolling Off Africa! thread.
Here is the 06z surface maps since Monday.

[cycloneye]

Here is where it started with that great circulation.

[BigA]

I think this is the wave that the Canadian moves north of the islands and develops into a significant storm. I need more than the CMC before I say yay on development, but its a start, and upper levels look fairly favorable between 62 west and the Bahamas.

[Gustywind]

Continues to burst just east of Guadeloupe... has never give up since this morning. This twave continue to improve its sat pic appearence tonight.

[KWT]

I think the southern side has a better chance of forming as I think conditions aloft down there are a little more favourable.

Probably will be 97L at some point soon...

[Cyclenall]

Looks great today with clustered convection building and lower wind shear. I think it will become Invest 97L sometime tonight and code yellow (10-20%) by the NHC minutes from now.

Boy you ain't kidding KWT.....Friday i was thinking we were going to enter a lull for about 3 to 4 weeks, which is typical this time of year. Then today, invests(and potential invests) are spitting out like crazy.....

Yeah I was wondering why you posted that since this is not going to be a typical year. I was going to say maybe a lull of 3-4 days instead of weeks this time .

Here is the layout of the western Atlantic's activity currently:

[Hugo1989]

began the show in Atlantic

[cycloneye]

20 %

KNHC 042335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART