Is the 2010 season still on track towards 18+ or not?

[KWT]

FWIW an even better example, 1969:

.............

Yep thats it for the moment in 1969, we've still got another 2 and a bit weeks before anything got going in 1969 and the final numbers?

18/11/5...including one of the strongest US landfalling storms of all time.

[HURAKAN]

It really makes me laugh to read that people are downcasting this season because by JULY 8 we only have a Category 2 hurricane and a tropical depression. LOL

Lets remember that the peak of the hurricane season is 2 MONTHS AWAY!!!

[KWT]

I think its only because there seems to be a belief that you must have a very busy start to get 16-18NS or more...it certainly helps but even if 2005 had 0 storms for June and July, that would still leave 21NS between August and the end and there is no reason why we can't get say 15-17NS in that timeframe this time round.

[cycloneye]

A reminder that the poll closes next Monday, July 12th at 2:17 PM EDT so those who still have not voted ,dont forget to do so.

[HURAKAN]

to show the opposite, look at 1968.

1 Hurricane ABBY 1-13 JUN 65 965 1
2 Hurricane BRENDA 17-26 JUN 65 990 1
3 Tropical Storm CANDY 22-26 JUN 60 999 -

by this time, they had 3 named systems, including 2 hurricanes.

At the end, 7 names systems and 1 subtropical storm!!! lol

[KWT]

I'm guessing 1968 had a similar profile to 1997 aloft where the upper level lows that kept cutting off actually allowed decent early season development...

FWIW I actually was one of the 'no' votes for 18+ storms, I do think we will get 16-18NS and a very busy spell where we may well have 3-4 systems active at the same time but I think 18+ is an ask, but it can be done as 69 and 05's numbers after mid July show nicely.

[Macrocane]

I forecasted this year 17 named storms, but I voted yes in the poll because I think that there could be a couple of storms more (or less) but the fact that we have had only one named storm doesn't mean that the season couldn't go crazy from August to October.

[Ptarmigan]

I think 2010 could have at least 18 storms this season. 1969 had 18/11/5 and it started in July! Some of the most active seasons started late, like 2004.

[cycloneye]

I think 2010 could have at least 18 storms this season. 1969 had 18/11/5 and it started in July! Some of the most active seasons started late, like 2004.

Agree on that and also I see a late season as La Nina tends to cause developments in the ladder part of the season.

[xcool22]

What the current pattern on the ECMWF shows is...Yucatan and Mexico. USA looks protected by a strong Atlantic high....similar to 2007 ?

[Frank2]

Then there's 2005 (July 11 being a little more than 24 hours away):

1. Tropical Storm ARLENE 8-14 JUN 60 990
2. Tropical Storm BRET 28-30 JUN 35 1005
3. Hurricane CINDY 3-11 JUL 65 992 (1)
4. Hurricane DENNIS 4-18 JUL 130 930 (4)
5. Hurricane EMILY 11-21 JUL 140 929 (5)

As far as this year is concerned, I wouldn't debate Alex for a minute, but TD2 was just about the poorest-looking TD I've ever seen, so to say it was "just 4 mph from a TS" is really questionable - I'd discard TD2 and just say that we've only had Alex so far, so quite a difference from 2005, and no doubt that's why the NHC said the season could either be "slightly above average or exceptionally above average" (though that's called "playing it down the middle" - lol)...

Still, 2004 was without a named storm until the end of July and we certainly made up for a lack of activity after that, so, we'll have to wait and see, though I'd have to agree with the last poster that at this point there are similarities to 2007...

Frank

[KWT]

I'm very worried actually about that upper high because as the QBO signal begins to flip it tends to encourage the upper high to contract northwards and the whole pattern lifts northwards, with that and a combo of a +ve NAO it utterly screams multiple US threats. Sure there would be fishes as well in that pattern but in that set-up a good 50-60% would get through in some form and threaten land.

Also Frank as much as I agree TD2 looked like cack, recon found winds that could probably justify a TS yet alone 30kts...the NHC didn't upgrade because of the presentation, they even said that recon found winds that would usually justify an upgrade.

ps, they said slightly above average TO exceptionally busy I believe, the range from NOAA was 14-23NS which fits that range very nicely.

2005 is obviously beyond us, but other exceptional seasons are within reach if we have any burst of storms at any point in the next 20-30 days.

[cycloneye]

IMO,July will not yield four named systems as JB said in his last update of his forecast. I think two systems is more realistic but is only my opinion.

[ConvergenceZone]

The only way I will lower my numbers for the year is if we don't get another couple of storms by the time July ends, about 2 and 1/2 weeks.

[ConvergenceZone]

It really makes me laugh to read that people are downcasting this season because by JULY 8 we only have a Category 2 hurricane and a tropical depression. LOL

Lets remember that the peak of the hurricane season is 2 MONTHS AWAY!!!

I agree Hurakan. I still think it will be an active season no doubt. I just don't think it will be the hyper active season that JB is forecasting unless we do get a couple more additional storms by the end of July.

[KWT]

IMO,July will not yield four named systems as JB said in his last update of his forecast. I think two systems is more realistic but is only my opinion.

I agree cycloneye, I think 2-3 storms is realistic and would really set us up for a 16-18NS finishing point...but we shall see, I see no reason at all things don't just explode by the 15th of August, though I think it may get going earlier then that this time round.

[funster]

If we get a lot of fish storms in August, September and October it could inflate the numbers quite a bit. Could still reach 18 even if July only turns out 1 storm.

[HurricaneJoe22]

I say we see one more July storm and then a ramp up in August and a wild September with four to five very potent hurricanes during that two-month period. And then an above-average October and November to push the storm total to the upper teens, maybe reaching 20.

[jinftl]

18 named storms is at least as likely...if not more...than when the season started June 1.

[KWT]

Whilst stats aren't everything jinftl, I think the fact is we are now falling behind the curve of 16NS+ already, most seasons bar 1969 (which is a big outlier!) had 2-3+ storms by this point...

However on the flip side, 95L was probably close and TD2 actually did have TS winds but the presentation really was awful enough to make the NHC doubt the wind estimates so we could in thoery of also had 2-3NS by now.

I feel perfectly content with 16-18NS right now...to get 18+ you normally require July to chip in with 3-4 storms which doesn't appear likely to happen at this stage and really then requires a big ramp-up beyond what we normally see in a top 8 August-November period...

Worth noting though we are in La Nina, which does make a busy back end more than possible as well...

I suppose I'm pretty 50-50 about reaching 18 or above, its certainly possible, but no way IMO is it more likely then it would have been at the start of the season, I think odds of a massive season like that have slightly decreased with the combo of falling behind the curve of the top-8 and also the shear hanging just a little below average for the time of the year in the basin still.