Convection in Yucatan

[Nimbus]

The area of convection near 80w seen last night and this morning went poof so there must not have been much of any low pressure at the surface causing the lift. The eastern Caribbean is bone dry and the gulf is all torn up by shear at the moment. I think this area should have a 1% circle over it if we get more bursts tonight.

[StarmanHDB]

The area of convection near 80w seen last night and this morning went poof so there must not have been much of any low pressure at the surface causing the lift. The eastern Caribbean is bone dry and the gulf is all torn up by shear at the moment. I think this area should have a 1% circle over it if we get more bursts tonight.

Whatever it is, an outer "band" (pardon my lack of technical terminology) swung around and dumped a nice amount of rain in the NW Broward suburbs a few hours ago.

[HurricaneJoe22]

I got wet getting out of my car and running into the house in the downpour in Coral Springs!

[StarmanHDB]

I got wet getting out of my car and running into the house in the downpour in Coral Springs!

LOL! I got drenched at The Walk!

[Nimbus]

The area of convection near 80w seen last night and this morning went poof so there must not have been much of any low pressure at the surface causing the lift. The eastern Caribbean is bone dry and the gulf is all torn up by shear at the moment. I think this area should have a 1% circle over it if we get more bursts tonight.

Whatever it is, an outer "band" (pardon my lack of technical terminology) swung around and dumped a nice amount of rain in the NW Broward suburbs a few hours ago.

Just the upper level low stirring up the moist air mass. Same thing happening off the Yucatan this morning.

[KWT]

Yeah it seems like a good percentage of the convection over the pasty few weeks down there has been either caused or enhanced by the upper flow.

[tolakram]

This the same general area, now moving near the gulf?

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Not the Upper Low, which is still claiming the Gulf as it's own, but the convection down south.

[Sanibel]

Too close to the shear border but looks like it is trying to make a run at formation:

[Nimbus]

Maybe the northern tip of Belize? Seriously what storm2K needs is a realtime map of surface pressures.
I know not in the budget.

[HURAKAN]

Pressures high



Strong winds

[HURAKAN]

Shear doesn't look all that bad in the gulf



Strongest vorticity is further south

[Vortmax1]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010


THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF EAST OF 90W INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 26N85W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CONVECTION AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[cperez1594]

You can see a spin just near the Mexican coast of the Yuctan. Hmmm intresting we just have to wait and see when it gets back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico

[lrak]

I can't believe this, pressures are high but it really looks like something is coming together down there...ACK. Enough for July!

[ROCK]

You can see a low level eddy being spun off in the BOC moving NW....Mid level circulation is down around the stronger convection....the complex to the north is warming and you can see the spin of a dying complex....With no model support, over land for at least a day, and when exiting less water time....this might get an invest and thats about it...IMO...

[Tropics Guy]

May have a chance at development in the southern BOC after it crosses the Yucatan..............another upper coast Mex system? seems like that is the pattern this year.

TG

[Weatherfreak000]

Definitely looks impressive. This stresses the importance of day to day tropical forecasting. You can wake up the next day and the situation can be entirely different. July 4th was crazy.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Looks like a mid-level circulation

[HURAKAN]

Need to be watched when it gets into the BOC

[BigA]

Definitely a mid level low, but the 850 (1 mile) vorticity is pretty impressive for a mid-level circulation, suggesting to me that it is pretty low in the atmosphere. If I recall, TD2 formed from a similar setup, and I wouldn't discount the possibility of a short-lived BOC tropical cyclone, a la Bret, Gert, and Jose from 2005. Still, I think development unlikely.