Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[chzzdekr81]

I see three consecutive posts about a possible GOM system,including a post from a Moderator.
Am I in the wrong thread?

Here you go: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108970

[KWT]

Well there is strong signals for something getting going, I've been saying that the 20th is the rampup period for what feels like a bit of an age.

As for the pattern down the line, this one emerges reasonably high according to the models, I'd imagine a recurve would be more likely then a hit if only because of where it develops thats the overwhelming outcome...

However equally I wouldn't be surprised if this one does end up coming way too close for comfort to the east coast....but thats a heck of a long way off yet!

[hurricaneCW]

Perhaps will see an actual system after all. At this time I would guess a Bertha/Bill type of track, but that's way too far out to be sure. I hope it develops, I've been waiting for over a month to track something decent. I don't care if it's an early recurve, just give me something.

[cycloneye]

Here is a full disk view with a drawing of where the wave is located.

[HURAKAN]

If that's the size of the wave, it will take ages for it to develop, lol

[KWT]

Yeah it'll probably be quite large, the ECM has a pretty large area of low pressure with this, so the outer circulation maybe quite chunky.

Notice the wave in front has the same presentation as well...

[Ivanhater]

Both the GFS and Euro have support from their Ensembles. Also note the high over the North east. Not a pattern supportive of a recurve.

[KWT]

True but note the dip down at about 60-70W...there is a weakness progged to be there and if its anything like that it won't matter is there was the strongest high ever in the NE N.America, any system would be gone before it got there...

That being said thats not the solution I think will come to pass but just worth mentioning.

[ConvergenceZone]

True but note the dip down at about 60-70W...there is a weakness progged to be there and if its anything like that it won't matter is there was the strongest high ever in the NE N.America, any system would be gone before it got there...

That being said thats not the solution I think will come to pass but just worth mentioning.

good points KWT, but since the wave appears to be so massive, it might
take awhile for this to get going, which will keep it chugging along
in a westerly direction more than likely....

[Ivanhater]

Well KWT, it is also being hinted that weakness may not be there. We will probably see the models flip flop giving the pattern. The pattern is changing.

[Ivanhater]

UKMET as well

[KWT]

Oh I do agree Ivanhater there is going to be something of a pattern flip, I just feel the models maybe a little progressive bringing it in at the moment, so whilst this one may well get far enough to be a threat to the east coast, its the stuff that may come off 5-10 days later that have my real concern right now...but alas things are getting ready to ramp up!

[Ivanhater]

GFS still on it

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

GFS develops it quite strongly, this far east anything that develops that strongly under what is still a fairly standard looking ridge will probably recurve...the pattern does look like changing but I'd imagine it gains enough latitude before that to get tugged up even by small weaknesses. Any such pattern though would make it a very nervous period for the E.coast...

Long ole way to go but the models slowly getting more keen on a developing system out in the CV region...here we go!

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, looks to recurve this run, but this could be our first major.

[KWT]

Yep and it'll likely leave a big weakness behind, probably would lead to no threat for the US unless we get some sort of home brew till 5-10th September if that happened.

Looking like everything from the CV region will recurve this year.

[cycloneye]

Here is where the 18z run ends.

[KWT]

Probably would be a decently strong hurricane on that run, I think it recurves it out too quickly and I don't think it'll develop as rapidly as the GFS thinks either...though I think odds are it does develop given the good model support.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep and it'll likely leave a big weakness behind, probably would lead to no threat for the US unless we get some sort of home brew till 5-10th September if that happened.

Looking like everything from the CV region will recurve this year.

Yea I agree, looks like the year of the recurves for any CV storm based upon the pattern setting up...At least we will have something to track anyway....