Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[South Texas Storms]

wx warrior how strong of a system is that making landfall?

[Wx_Warrior]

I'd be lying if I told you....looks 1004mb. I'm no good at strengths.

I would wait a few more EUROs to see if this verifies. But that's too close for comfort. About right tho with the start of HS football next weekend.

[South Texas Storms]

would that classify to be a tropical storm? im just curious because that comes crashing into my home state if that euro run comes to verify...

[Wx_Warrior]

Best guess would be TD.

[South Texas Storms]

thanks...another thing to keep an eye on.

[KWT]

Good ole ECM shows yet another attempt at the same evolution we've seen several times in the last few weeks with a frontal development that gets trapped in the Gulf for a few days...its like the synoptics are just stuck in place.

ECM looks like a TS to me.

[ronjon]

NAM and CMC want to develop soemthing in the eastern GOM.

[rockyman]

Here's the 850 vorticity loop of the Canadian...looks like something forming in the eastern Gulf on the tail end, then accelerating NE into Florida's Big Bend area.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS has a similar solution:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[caneman]

Well, that is 3 models now so pretty decent agreement. Any idea how strong?

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

THE 00Z/21 ECMWF DEVELOPED A NEW SFC LOW WITHIN THE PERSISTENT
SHEAR ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SO WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE IF THIS HAS CONTINUITY IN LATER RUNS. THE OTHER 00Z MODELS
ARE WEAKER WITH AN OPEN WAVE APPROACHING TEXAS NEXT SAT 28
AUG...THUS THE BLENDED SOLUTION WAS APPLIED HERE AS WELL.

[flwxwatcher]

The EURO and the CMC has been hinting really the last several days of a gulf development. a couple days ago the EURO had a system forming right off the coast of Tampa and since then has been hinting at some kind of homebrew development in the gulf. Something to watch for sure.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmmmm.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

Could see something from this it does need watching, though given we've seen several attempts at this exact same evolution already I'm not sure it'd amount to much.

[poof121]

Hmmmmmmmm.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Looks shear generated to me...

[rockyman]

12z Euro:

[poof121]

Okay, what is this?

[ColinDelia]

Okay, what is this?

http://weatherroanoke.com/tropics.png

I can't make anything out at the surface

[poof121]

Okay, what is this?

http://weatherroanoke.com/tropics.png

I can't make anything out at the surface

Me neither, just the vorticity popped up over the last three hours.

[poof121]

Never mind, GFS predicted this...

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes


whats going on here, there are west winds and a little rotation beginning?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

or here

NOLA long range http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes


seems like lots of inflow based on radar and satellite.