Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

12z Canadian joins the models showing this system, although as a weak reflection over the Lesser Antilles.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[srainhoutx]

The consistency we are seeing in guidance certainly raises an eyebrow. It is becoming clear that a feature heading E at lower latitudes in the works. Time to start paying attention. This well may be the long tracker that we have been expecting at some point this season.

[BigA]

The consistency we are seeing in guidance certainly raises an eyebrow. It is becoming clear that a feature heading E at lower latitudes in the works. Time to start paying attention. This well may be the long tracker that we have been expecting at some point this season.

It would be strange to go through such an active year without a hurricane landfall in the U.S.

We can't know exactly where this will go, but 5 days of runs of the GFS showing the same thing, but moving it closer in time, is a pretty strong indicator that something is going to happen.

[ROCK]

if Mathew develops at the islands and goes over some of the hottest ssts in the basin he is going to bomb IMO....major in the making...

[KWT]

Without a doubt Rock, the one caveat for now is Karl was forecasted to develop like this but took its time...

However the sinking air is progged to pretty much be gone by the time this gets into the Caribbean...threat is very broad with this one, no obvious easy call!

[Ivanhater]

The flopping as far as landfall is not that large really. The Gulf coast has consistently been the target. Many more runs though.

[ROCK]

The flopping as far as landfall is not that large really. The Gulf coast has consistently been the target. Many more runs though.

agreed....I think Brownsville to Miami...at this point....I would not go as far as say NGOM to EGOM is more at risk though....

[Ivanhater]

The flopping as far as landfall is not that large really. The Gulf coast has consistently been the target. Many more runs though.

agreed....I think Brownsville to Miami...at this point....I would not go as far as say NGOM to EGOM is more at risk though....

See that Houston landfall on the 06 GFS?

[Vortex]

IMO, this has the making to be a big ticket item...With the strong consistency of the GFS for 5 days in a row, I think there is little doubt that we will be dealing with a storm in the Caribbean in 7-10m days. How strong it gets and where it goes are obviously important questions that can’t be answered at this point. However, given the time of year and expected track I think it’s reasonable to expect the potential of a significant cyclone near the Cayman Islands in about 10 days…Everyone from Texas to Florida should pay close attention and those island residents across the Caribbean should remain vigilant.

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro from last night...Reflection showing up stronger in the NW Caribbean

[hurricaneCW]

So the Euro shows another Mexican storm and a Cape Verde storm that is likely to recurve, sounds like the way this pattern has been thus far, could continue although I think both the gfs and euro are showing off their biases. Euro with the stronger ridging and the gfs with the strong troughiness, so something in the middle would probably make more sense.

[Ivanhater]

So the Euro shows another Mexican storm and a Cape Verde storm that is likely to recurve, sounds like the way this pattern has been thus far, could continue although I think both the gfs and euro are showing off their biases. Euro with the stronger ridging and the gfs with the strong troughiness, so something in the middle would probably make more sense.

Euro doesn't develop much and the ridge is displaced on the Euro. Not sure where you are getting a Mexico storm on the Euro. This is all 24 hours out, so it's not that important.

[ConvergenceZone]

So the Euro shows another Mexican storm and a Cape Verde storm that is likely to recurve, sounds like the way this pattern has been thus far, could continue although I think both the gfs and euro are showing off their biases. Euro with the stronger ridging and the gfs with the strong troughiness, so something in the middle would probably make more sense.

mexico storm? recurve? Hmmm, I don't think so...

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF on Julias run shows this system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

NHC experimental

[HURAKAN]

HWRF

[Stormcenter]

Then again this may turn out to be a phantom storm.
It's not like the GFS and other models have never had any
those.

Anyway you can't ignore the time of season as to where
the eventual landfall of this possible event would be.
Cold fronts (troughs) will come into play.....no doubt about it.
I would say anywhere east of 90 would be an area of
concern if in fact this were to pan out. All of this is just my opinion.

So the Euro shows another Mexican storm and a Cape Verde storm that is likely to recurve, sounds like the way this pattern has been thus far, could continue although I think both the gfs and euro are showing off their biases. Euro with the stronger ridging and the gfs with the strong troughiness, so something in the middle would probably make more sense.

mexico storm? recurve? Hmmm, I don't think so...

[Portastorm]

Then again this may turn out to be a phantom storm.
It's not like the GFS and other models have never had any
those.

Anyway you can't ignore the time of season as to where
the eventual landfall of this possible event would be.
Cold fronts (troughs) will come into play.....no doubt about it.
I would say anywhere east of 90 would be an area of
concern if in fact this were to pan out. All of this is just my opinion.

This would probably be true in another season but certainly not this year. The westerlies are far from being in control in the southern US, especially Texas and Louisiana. Until those westerlies take charge and we see fronts dipping into the Gulf ... areas west of 90 are totally in play. You may have forgotten that several respected tropical meteorologists on this board have expressed deep concern for the Gulf throughout September into early October.

[Vortex]

8N/40W appears to be the suspect area on the vis....There appears to be some cyclonic turning as well...I think this will ultimately be the area that spawns the carribean storm...





http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

[Stormcenter]

Correct me if I'm wrong but we've already had several fronts dip into the GOM so far this season.
As I stated before the fronts are only going to get stronger as we get closer to the Fall and Winter seasons.
They will come into play if and when this predicted system is in the area. I guess what I'm trying to say
is I have to see it to believe it. IMO

Then again this may turn out to be a phantom storm.
It's not like the GFS and other models have never had any
those.

Anyway you can't ignore the time of season as to where
the eventual landfall of this possible event would be.
Cold fronts (troughs) will come into play.....no doubt about it.
I would say anywhere east of 90 would be an area of
concern if in fact this were to pan out. All of this is just my opinion.

This would probably be true in another season but certainly not this year. The westerlies are far from being in control in the southern US, especially Texas and Louisiana. Until those westerlies take charge and we see fronts dipping into the Gulf ... areas west of 90 are totally in play. You may have forgotten that several respected tropical meteorologists on this board have expressed deep concern for the Gulf throughout September into early October.