Pouch PGI51L : East of the Windwards (Is part of invest 97L)

[northjaxpro]

18Z NAM moves it west to a position SE of PR in 3 days....200mb has a ridge N and NW of PR which would allow the system to track wnw...

H84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... nam_slp_08


Interesting indeed Vortex. Should this come to fruition, a building ridge at this point in time on that run would take whatever developed near PR in the vicinity of the Bahamas by early -mid part part of next week. The next couple of days will tell us a lot about if this system will evolve.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM moves it west to a position SE of PR in 3 days....200mb has a ridge N and NW of PR which would allow the system to track wnw...



H84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... nam_slp_08


Interesting indeed Vortex. Should this come to fruition, a building ridge at this point in time on that run would take whatever developed near PR in the vicinity of the Bahamas by early -mid part part of next week. The next couple of days will tell us a lot about if this system will evolve.

Euro had it in the bahamas yesterday

[northjaxpro]

18Z NAM moves it west to a position SE of PR in 3 days....200mb has a ridge N and NW of PR which would allow the system to track wnw...



H84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... nam_slp_08


Interesting indeed Vortex. Should this come to fruition, a building ridge at this point in time on that run would take whatever developed near PR in the vicinity of the Bahamas by early -mid part part of next week. The next couple of days will tell us a lot about if this system will evolve.

Euro had it in the bahamas yesterday

I now remember looking at that model run from Euro on yesterday Vortex. Well, this is just something else we will keep an eye on in the coming days. It does look like a candidate for our next invest to me if the convection continues to persist.

[Vortex]

NWS San Juan this afternoon:

A PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLIES NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 54 W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND REACH OUR LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...VERY LIGHT WINDS...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET END
OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

[Vortex]

TWD 205pm:

EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR...CONVECTION DUE TO NICOLE TO MOVE N...WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH.

[Vortex]

H84 NAM 200mb...looks very favorable...very light winds aloft..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[Gustywind]

[northjaxpro]

Look at how much in size this sytem has become in the past 24 hours. I can't grasp why NHC has not tagged this as an invest yet, which I stated earlier on the page. I look for this to get tagged as an invest very soon.

[Gustywind]

[rog]

looks better than Nicole ever did.

[northjaxpro]

looks better than Nicole ever did.

If NHC had this at 10% earlier today, I would suspect that based on satelitte presentation alone that this should get at least bumped to 20% on the next TWO update at 8 p.m. this evening.

IMO, I think it should garner at least 30% because it looks that an anticyclone is beginning to move over this system and I think conditions are becoming more favorable for development as time progresses as it moves westward.

[pavelbure224]

What are the models showing today?

[Vortex]

18Z GFS H72 low near leewards...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[Vortex]

H96 Low just NE of leewards


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[Vortex]

H114 N or PR


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[Blown Away]

H96 Low just NE of leewards


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

What is the system SE of Florida?

[Vortex]

H150

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[Vortex]

H96 Low just NE of leewards


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

What is the system SE of Florida?

The spin-up from the western carribean that heads NE towards the bahamas and gets pushed back to the west...GFS has been on this for days...

[Vortex]

H174 just N of DR...looks like GFS may try to merge both lows...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[northjaxpro]

H96 Low just NE of leewards


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

What is the system SE of Florida?

The spin-up from the western carribean that heads NE towards the bahamas and gets pushed back to the west...GFS has been on this for days...

That is correct Vortex. That is the Low Pressure area from the monsoonal trough moving NE out of the Caribbean.