SW Caribbean Storm? - (Is Invest 94L)

[GCANE]

FIM is staying pretty consistant with a mid Cuba landfall.

[GCANE]

Floater up on GOES


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[GCANE]

The hot-tower may have precipitated the development of an anti-cyclone.

Shear appears to be quickly dropping.

[ronjon]

Looks like we have the convective "seedling" for development. Gotta hand it to the models for sniffing this one out several days ago.

[HURAKAN]

3 days

[GCANE]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 121430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST FRI 12 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-164

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.5N 79.0W AT 15/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Sanibel]

Well, it burst. We'll see if the Caribbean can still support it.

[GCANE]

Colombia obs are showing west or SW winds.

Panama MSLP steady and falling thru Columbia.

Rotation becoming more evident.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

[dwsqos2]

Current guidance is relatively unenthusiastic; I remain pessimistic. It's probably going to be more or less under the periphery of an anticyclone, and that would expose it to somewhat unfavorable upper-level winds. It's ironic that another disturbance will likely struggle with easterly shear.

[Florida1118]

Current guidance is relatively unenthusiastic; I remain pessimistic. It's probably going to be more or less under the periphery of an anticyclone, and that would expose it to somewhat unfavorable upper-level winds. It's ironic that another disturbance will likely struggle with easterly shear.

To me and from what I understand others, think this has a good shot a development. The shear is dropping. I don't see much to stop it, other than land. I don't see the irony either. But oh well. Perhaps 30% at 1?

[wxman57]

Here's a current satellite and surface analysis. Not much evidence of rotation in Colombian obs. That one light WNW wind could be a sea breeze wind. Pressures aren't particularly low, and convection is weak. Prime area for late-season development, so something to keep an eye on. I think any development might not occur for 2-3 days. Sunday afternoon at the earliest, more likely Monday. Track west to CA or Belize most likely with a big Canadian front dropping into the Gulf next week. GFS doesn't show the front well yet.

[Florida1118]

Called it! Can someone else post the GTWO, I can't upload the image right now.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Should be Invest 94L very soon. Floater already says Invest, just no numbering.

[tolakram]

94L

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