2011 WPAC Season

[RobWESTPACWX]

Most defiantly, don't forget we did have 2 TD's already, but your right those were really nothing.

Also want to mention NGPS is blowing up something near Guam later in the week as well.

[StormingB81]

Whats the nogaps website again? guess typhoon season wants to start sooner this year...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Whats the nogaps website again? guess typhoon season wants to start sooner this year...

This is the site I use, https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html

[StormingB81]

thank you sir..however which do I click on?

[euro6208]

Tropicalstormrisk.com just release their May update. They forecast 28 Tropical Storm, 18 Typhoons of which 8 Becomes Intense typhoons of category 3-5.

[cycloneye]

WPAC has started to rack up rapidly ACE numbers thanks to the first typhoon of the season (Songda) that is a very strong one.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know the updated ACE numbers for the 2011 WPAC season so far after Typhoon Songda?

[StormingB81]

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/ has the western pacific at 27.29 through 29 May still checking though

[StormingB81]

Here are the numbers

Name Max Wind ACE
01W TD One 25 0.0
02W TD Two 30 0.0
03W Aere 50 2.8125
04W Songda 140 23.925

[P.K.]

Does anyone know the updated ACE numbers for the 2011 WPAC season so far after Typhoon Songda?

Click on the individual storms on http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/year/wnp/2011.html.en and it updates the ACE as events unfold during the year.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know the updated ACE numbers for the 2011 WPAC season so far after Typhoon Songda?

Click on the individual storms on http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/year/wnp/2011.html.en and it updates the ACE as events unfold during the year.

Thank you Peter! Is now bookmarked.

[StormingB81]

local paper today published Songda was a cat 3 when it hit us...pretty odd they would go against jtwc who said cat 1

[Chacor]

Heavy rain earlier this morning in Singapore caused the worst floods in 25 years. 65 mm of rain was recorded in 30 minutes from 10:30 to 11 am (rain rate of 5.12 inches per hour).

SINGAPORE: The extent of the floods caused by heavy and intensive rainfall on Sunday morning caught the authorities by surprise, as it was something which national water agency PUB had not seen in the last 25 years.

PUB explained that the flash floods were caused by two bouts of heavy rainfall.

The first started slightly past 6am, and second downpour, which was more intense, occurred at about 10.30am.

About 65mm of rainfall was recorded within 30 minutes.

This was worse than the one on June 16 last year, which had 100mm of rainfall within two hours.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 45/1/.html

[StormingB81]

Soooo....If it wasn't the fact it was so hot and muggy I would say it would be fall here...all the trees are so dead and leavless there is not 1 tree that is full of life and leaves...pretty crazy

[Chacor]

The JMA has issued the best track for TS1101 Aere today. Peak 40 kt, 992 hPa.

AXPQ20 RJTD 100700
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 1101 AERE (1101)
PERIOD FROM MAY0612UTC TO MAY1506UTC
0612 11.9N 128.2E 1004HPA //KT 0618 12.0N 127.4E 1000HPA //KT
0700 12.5N 126.7E 1000HPA //KT 0706 12.9N 126.0E 998HPA //KT
0712 13.3N 125.4E 996HPA 35KT 0718 13.5N 124.7E 996HPA 35KT
0800 14.0N 124.2E 996HPA 35KT 0806 14.5N 123.7E 994HPA 35KT
0812 15.1N 123.1E 992HPA 40KT 0818 15.6N 122.9E 992HPA 40KT
0900 16.3N 122.5E 992HPA 40KT 0906 17.2N 122.3E 996HPA 35KT
0912 18.0N 122.3E 996HPA 35KT 0918 19.2N 122.2E 996HPA 35KT
1000 20.3N 122.3E 996HPA 35KT 1006 21.2N 123.1E 996HPA 35KT
1012 22.4N 124.2E 996HPA 35KT 1018 23.5N 125.0E 996HPA 35KT
1100 25.1N 126.2E 996HPA 35KT 1106 26.6N 127.8E 996HPA 35KT
1112 28.4N 129.6E 996HPA 35KT 1118 30.1N 132.0E 998HPA //KT
1200 31.2N 134.4E 998HPA //KT 1206 32.7N 137.2E 996HPA //KT
1212 34.5N 140.7E 996HPA //KT 1218 36.4N 143.3E 990HPA //KT
1300 37.9N 145.8E 988HPA //KT 1306 39.2N 148.1E 986HPA //KT
1312 41.1N 150.7E 986HPA //KT 1318 43.2N 154.3E 984HPA //KT
1400 45.0N 157.7E 984HPA //KT 1406 46.6N 161.3E 980HPA //KT
1412 48.1N 165.1E 980HPA //KT 1418 49.6N 169.2E 978HPA //KT
1500 51.3N 174.5E 978HPA //KT 1506 52.6N 179.5W 978HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT MAY0612UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT MAY0712UTC
FROM TS TO TD AT MAY1118UTC
FROM TD TO L AT MAY1218UTC
OUT OF AREA AT MAY1506UTC=

[Chacor]

For the record, three names were retired from the name list last season: Morakot, Ketsana, and Parma. Replacing them are Atsani, Champi and In-fa respectively.

[cycloneye]

A question for anyone familiar with the WPAC stats. How is this 2011 season doing in terms of named storms (3 so far) as we are almost on mid June?

[supercane]

Depends on whose numbers you use.
JMA Western Pacific cumulative tropical cyclone incidence (1951-2008) (from Digital Typhoon)

Using JMA's numbers we would say the season is close to average.

And from JTWC (source: 2009 ATCR p. 9) (note typhoons in earlier era totals to 16.4 annually, not 24.4):

Average cumulative TS+TY/TY through May: 3.3/1.7 (2011 actual 2/1)
Average cumulative TS+TY/TY at end of June: 4.9/2.8 (2011 year to date 3/1)
Using JTWC numbers this season may be slightly less active than average in terms of named storms and typhoons than would be expected at this point in the season, although not dramatically so.

[StormingB81]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

ECMWF is trying to hint at something around the 21rst of June

[StormingB81]

This is intresting..could make for a busy couple of weeks: