2011 Steering Pattern/Early indicators

[CrazyC83]

I agree, fewer storms than in 2010, but much closer to the CONUS. Highest risk I think will be the Gulf and Florida coasts. The northern GOM was inhospitable for tropical activity in 2010 (except for Hermine in a small sweet spot) but I can't see the same happening in 2011, unfortunately.

[Ptarmigan]

Season that occur in transition seem to be more active I have noticed. I don't think this season will be as active as 2010, but it will be active. I think a good analog season are 1961, 1969, 1989, and 2008.

[StormClouds63]

Season that occur in transition seem to be more active I have noticed. I don't think this season will be as active as 2010, but it will be active. I think a good analog season are 1961, 1969, 1989, and 2008.

Unfortunately, all those analog years included a very "significant" landfalling hurricane:

1961=Carla
1969=Camille
1989=Hugo
2008=Ike

I think that 2011 will be closer to 1990, 1996, or 2001 ... but I'm only guessing. I do believe the early portion of the season will be a bit more active than normal.

[vbhoutex]

Season that occur in transition seem to be more active I have noticed. I don't think this season will be as active as 2010, but it will be active. I think a good analog season are 1961, 1969, 1989, and 2008.

I don't like your analogs!!! 2 of those feature Hurricanes that had SIGNIFICANT effects on SE TX. Please change your analogs.

[somethingfunny]

So the thinking is we'll have a Bermuda High strong enough to not allow a storm like Earl to recurve, but not strong enough to keep storms suppressed into the lower latitudes like Dean and Felix?

[wxman57]

So the thinking is we'll have a Bermuda High strong enough to not allow a storm like Earl to recurve, but not strong enough to keep storms suppressed into the lower latitudes like Dean and Felix?

Correct - no extensive ridge over the south-central U.S. acting to block recurvature into the Gulf or toward the East U.S. Coast this season.

[OuterBanker]

Sneak peak into mondays Accuweather pro forcast for the hurricane season shows Tx, S Fl and Carolinas as highest risk areas.
Tx early season, Fl and Carolinas mid to late. Not as active as last year, but much more chance for US hits.

Interesting that they are going ahead without JB. I wonder if he had any influence?

Me, I'm just wondering if the water will ever get warm enough. It's been a rough winter and spring still hasn't shown up here

[xironman]

Looks to me once the colder close to shore water warms up there won't be a problem with the gulf stream cooking along

[barometerJane61]

Even without early indicators,it seems the law of averages says more systems will be going into the GOM/east coast than past 5 or 6 years.US coast has not experienced hits from hurricanes but only one yeAr since Katrina. Good that we have not suffered significant damage and loss of lives but on the other hand,such conditions tend to make people complacent and more likely to try and ride out a big one

[StormClouds63]

Even without early indicators,it seems the law of averages says more systems will be going into the GOM/east coast than past 5 or 6 years.US coast has not experienced hits from hurricanes but only one yeAr since Katrina. Good that we have not suffered significant damage and loss of lives but on the other hand,such conditions tend to make people complacent and more likely to try and ride out a big one

I believe Irene (1999) to Lili (2002) is the longest period of non-U.S. landfalls. However, TS Allison in 2001 caused more misery than many "major" hurricanes.

[Fego]

So the thinking is we'll have a Bermuda High strong enough to not allow a storm like Earl to recurve, but not strong enough to keep storms suppressed into the lower latitudes like Dean and Felix?

Correct - no extensive ridge over the south-central U.S. acting to block recurvature into the Gulf or toward the East U.S. Coast this season.

Interesting observation. Is there a link about ridges patterns or a page that analyze that topic? Thanks.

[tolakram]

Can we tell anything using the TPW loops?

Reviewing last year we already had numerous lows wandering around in the Atlantic, none this year around the same time.

2010

Animated: ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/pub/mimic_tpw/a ... anim72.gif

2011

[Ivanhater]

That is very interesting. I know that is just a snapshot of last year and this year but that would indicate a more robust bermuda high in control over the Atlantic.

[Ivanhater]

I don't know how well we can correlate what has been a persistent theme for the past few weeks and see if that will be the pattern during hurricane season. However, we have had a persistent SE ridge recently, that would help funnel storms toward the U.S coast and particularly Gulf coast.

[Ev1948]

Please, keep all this info coming. I have been in FL 3 years and reading on this site since we moved here, just joined last year, I don't really know anything about weather, but I have been learning, this site is so informative and educational..

[OuterBanker]

LOL, Geeze Louise. Looked and opened all the hurricanes from the analog years from CSU's April forecast (1955, 96 and 99 alone are bad enough).

Maybe it's time to sell

Btw, our wind pool jumped 35% this year here. Bad news in this economy.

Hope the insurance companies don't realize it or they won't write here.

Looks like a sure bet for geeting a strike here this year.

Almost as sure of a bet as Duke winning the national championship

[somethingfunny]

Even without early indicators,it seems the law of averages says more systems will be going into the GOM/east coast than past 5 or 6 years.US coast has not experienced hits from hurricanes but only one yeAr since Katrina. Good that we have not suffered significant damage and loss of lives but on the other hand,such conditions tend to make people complacent and more likely to try and ride out a big one

I believe Irene (1999) to Lili (2002) is the longest period of non-U.S. landfalls. However, TS Allison in 2001 caused more misery than many "major" hurricanes.

Irene (10/99) to Lili (10/02) was the longest period of no hurricane landfalls for the U.S.
Bret (8/99) to Charley (8/04) was our longest streak of no major hurricane landfalls.

We haven't had a hurricane strike the US since Ike (9/08) and no majors since Wilma (10/05) now, so at least on the majors we're in a record quiet period right now. Though 2004-2005 sure balanced out the averages for the decade, and as storms like Ike and Allison showed us, nobody should care if it's a major hurricane or not!

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see how the ENSO, thats going to be key I feel in the evolution of the season, I've got a sneaky feeling we may get a weak El Nino try and form during the late summer, not sure whether it'll make it but there is enough going for it to suggests its a real possiblity.

[wxman57]

I was looking at TS and hurricane impacts for Klotzbach's analog years (1955, 1996, 1999 and 2008). He listed 2006 as a spring analog, but 2006 went El Nino during the season so he doesn't think 2006 will be a good analog for 2011.

What I plotted below is all hurricane landfalls for 1955, 1996, 1999 and 2008. Some storms made multiple landfalls, so each is indicated. Note the lack of landfalls in Florida, with the exception of Irene in 1999. Even when I plotted TS impacts, there were very few in Florida in the analog years.



An examination of the data reveals a general track pattern that is common in the analog years. The pattern appears to be one path that moves across the NE Caribbean then heads for the Bahamas and the Carolinas. The second path is similar to start with, but continues westward toward the Yucatan Channel then WNW toward either Mexico or south Texas.

The pattern is suggestive of a high pressure area over the central U.S. with a trof in the eastern U.S. It's actually somewhat close to the 2010 pattern, but with a weaker ridge over the U.S. and a stronger Bermuda High. The effect would be to increase the risk of a landfall in the NE Caribbean, the Carolinas, and the western Gulf, as indicated in my graphic below. I don't see the heightened risk to Florida indicated in any of the analog years - UNLESS the Bermuda high is even stronger. Think 1999's Floyd turning north a few hundred miles farther west.

[Ivanhater]

Great analysis Wxman. Really puts the steering pattern of those analog years into perspective.

As you stated, any slight adjustment in the Conus High or Bermuda ridge and landfall risk areas would change. One thing is for sure, the U.S coast is at a much higher risk this year.