The storms seem to be struggling from shear and dry air. The shear seems abnormally high for a neutral ENSO year which we were forecasted to be in. Not definite, but if this troughing remains over the East Coast we may see any Cape Verde storms, which can survive the SAL, turn out to sea.
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So far...
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Re: So far...
Notice that the shear that has been affecting the systems in the western Atlantinc has been more of the north and east, especially the closer they get to the heat ridge. Typical that La Nina pattern is more in control than a neutral one.
Overall all shear has been near or below average over the basin as a whole.
Overall all shear has been near or below average over the basin as a whole.
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Re: So far...
Dry pattern and the Saharan airmass seems to be lingering and pushing down into the ITCZ more than usual.
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psyclone wrote:so far it has definitely been quantity over quality but the junk appetizers have probably about run their course...and things are likely to get alot more dicey soon.
That's what a lot of us thought late last week with all of the activity in the atlantic
more bark than bite I guess. Lets hope we get a big fish storm soon before people start bursting nerves 
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CrazyC83 wrote:All this weak activity could just be setting the stage once something develops closer to home...the atmosphere is prime for a homebrew monster, especially near Florida. Maybe something like 2004?
That's what I am thinking too.
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StormClouds63
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Re: So far...
Harvey is running out of time (and water) to intensify into a hurricane ... if it stays a TS, that's 8 for 8 this season. If CSU prediction of 17/9/5 for the Atlantic season is to verify, that leaves 9/9/5.
97L (future Irene) should become a hurricane, but at this point nothing is certain.
A very strange season indeed.
97L (future Irene) should become a hurricane, but at this point nothing is certain.
A very strange season indeed.
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Climatology would dictate we would be at 3/1/0 (ts/hurricanes/majors) by Aug 20 (see NHC link below)....we are at 8/0/0...could be 9/0/0 by the end of the weekend.
According to Dr. Jeff Masters, we are on track for breaking out the Greek alphabet this season...
From Dr. Jeff Masters blog today:
"It's been a strangely hyperactive season for weak storms in the Atlantic so far this year. Tropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm this year, and its formation date of August 19 marks the 4th earliest date on record for the Atlantic's 8th storm. Only 2005, 1933, and 1936 had the 8th storm of the season form earlier.
All eight storms this year have stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in yesterday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date.
With 97L looking like it will become a named storm in the next few days, at our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, we are using the 2005 list of names this year, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing a hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1887
Compared to NHC Climatology stats for the 1966-2009 seasons, in a typical year, by August 20 we would have seen 3 Named Storms, 1 Hurricane, and 0 Major Hurricanes
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
According to Dr. Jeff Masters, we are on track for breaking out the Greek alphabet this season...
From Dr. Jeff Masters blog today:
"It's been a strangely hyperactive season for weak storms in the Atlantic so far this year. Tropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm this year, and its formation date of August 19 marks the 4th earliest date on record for the Atlantic's 8th storm. Only 2005, 1933, and 1936 had the 8th storm of the season form earlier.
All eight storms this year have stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in yesterday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date.
With 97L looking like it will become a named storm in the next few days, at our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, we are using the 2005 list of names this year, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing a hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1887
Compared to NHC Climatology stats for the 1966-2009 seasons, in a typical year, by August 20 we would have seen 3 Named Storms, 1 Hurricane, and 0 Major Hurricanes
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
KBBOCA wrote:Can someone remind me where I can find the chart with named storms for this season in comparison with 1933, 2005, and historical average?
I thought I had it bookmarked, but I'm not finding it.
Thanks.
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KBBOCA
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Ah, a bit more searching through my bookmarks, and I found the chart I wanted. It compares 2011 with 2010, 2005, and the historical average for both named storms and a second chart for hurricanes. I guess it was back in 2005 that we were comparing the season to 1933...
Here's the link:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/ ... c-2011.htm
Here's the link:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/ ... c-2011.htm
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Great link! Thanks for posting.
KBBOCA wrote:Ah, a bit more searching through my bookmarks, and I found the chart I wanted. It compares 2011 with 2010, 2005, and the historical average for both named storms and a second chart for hurricanes. I guess it was back in 2005 that we were comparing the season to 1933...
Here's the link:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/ ... c-2011.htm
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gatorcane
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This season so far looks to be following on the heels of 2010 with a very weak Bermuda High feature and a strong East Coast of US trough. Conditions are quite favorable across the Atlantic for development, which is pumping out storm after storm.
Seems similar to 1995 actually, especially when you look at the Cape Verde tracks. In that year, the Leewards and Puerto Rico took a good beating like this year (though not with something as strong as Marilyn yet).....and the East Coast of the United States and Florida were spared:
Question now becomes will this pattern allow Western Caribbean systems to sneak up into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida areas as we start to head later into the season where development is more likely in the Caribbean and Gulf.
Seems similar to 1995 actually, especially when you look at the Cape Verde tracks. In that year, the Leewards and Puerto Rico took a good beating like this year (though not with something as strong as Marilyn yet).....and the East Coast of the United States and Florida were spared:
Question now becomes will this pattern allow Western Caribbean systems to sneak up into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida areas as we start to head later into the season where development is more likely in the Caribbean and Gulf.
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I don't see why this season is compared with 1995 and 2010?
This year has been hostile for CV formation, Katia and TD 10 were struggling far east and even the future Maria is forecast to stay weak until the lesser antilles which is contrary to what happened in 1995 and 2010 which had Major long-trackers that strengthened far east.
A good number of weak storms formed above 27 degrees N which was hardly ever in 1995 and 2010.
There have been 12 names used already, but only 2 became hurricanes.
I will not be surprised if this season end up with a record of the most names used but unproportional to the total ACE.
The way I see it, this season is comparable to 2005 (minus the monstrous cat 5s), which was also unfriendly for cape verde development, and many weak storms forming in the GOM and higher latitudes.
This year has been hostile for CV formation, Katia and TD 10 were struggling far east and even the future Maria is forecast to stay weak until the lesser antilles which is contrary to what happened in 1995 and 2010 which had Major long-trackers that strengthened far east.
A good number of weak storms formed above 27 degrees N which was hardly ever in 1995 and 2010.
There have been 12 names used already, but only 2 became hurricanes.
I will not be surprised if this season end up with a record of the most names used but unproportional to the total ACE.
The way I see it, this season is comparable to 2005 (minus the monstrous cat 5s), which was also unfriendly for cape verde development, and many weak storms forming in the GOM and higher latitudes.
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bg1 wrote:I'm starting to think the ACE for this season may not ever reach the "above average" mark at this rate.
Isn't it above average at the moment? We currently have three ACE building systems in the Atlantic and we are only just reaching the peak of the season IMO this season will have above average ACE and maybe even go greek.
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gatorcane
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This NHC discussion snippet on Maria sums up the 2011 Cape Verde season so far.
Shall we go for four? Anybody?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2040.shtml
Shall we go for four? Anybody?
IT IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN WITH THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO OBSERVED DURING THE TWO
OR THREE PREVIOUS RECURVING CYCLONES THIS SEASON. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...
SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND HWRF TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD AND THE ECMWF AND UK PROLONGING THE EVENTUAL
NORTHWARD TURN A LITTLE LONGER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS...AS USUAL...
A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2040.shtml
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westwind wrote:bg1 wrote:I'm starting to think the ACE for this season may not ever reach the "above average" mark at this rate.
Isn't it above average at the moment? We currently have three ACE building systems in the Atlantic and we are only just reaching the peak of the season IMO this season will have above average ACE and maybe even go greek.
I meant when the season was over, and I was referring to all the weak storms so far. But I checked the criteria for an "above average" season for ACE (103) and the current ACE and if it only doubles (makes sense since half the season is climatologically over) it looks like that will be achieved.
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