2011 TCRs

[hurricanetrack]

No way Irene is done this early. Gotta be something else. We'll see.

[bg1]

I'm most interested in the report for Katia, and how far east it was an extratropical storm.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Irene report

Very interesting to read the 45 pages it has. It was a hurricane over Puerto Rico and peak intensity was 105kts. CrazyC83,landfall in Long Island was at 55kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092011_Irene.pdf

[brunota2003]

That definitely was an interesting read. I can understand why they kept the intensity up at 65 knots while operational, but am glad they dropped the winds to 60/55 knots in the post report, which is exactly where I pegged it for those time periods.

[CrazyC83]

Those intensities seem reasonable, although I would have knocked the peak intensity down from 105 to 100 kt, since the SFMR never came close to 105 (highest was 96). I'd have held Irene at 60 kt up to the NYC landfall based on the surface data including the ship report of 56 kt at 1200Z (sustaining period is 10-min there?). However, agreed it weakened to that before NJ landfall - the last data to support hurricane intensity clearly was 8 hours earlier (0000Z intensity should be 70 kt, as well as 1800Z, based on that), and even a slow weakening trend would bring it down to 60. The NC landfall of 75 kt could either be seen as correct or a tad low, but makes most sense as a compromise based on disregarding the Cedar Island Ferry report of 80 kt sustained.

Also the Puerto Rico landfall I would have raised it to 65 kt and hurricane status. I doubt it strengthened overland immediately after landfall. SFMR there was 63 about 2 hours before landfall.

[CrazyC83]

Philippe now out - Peak intensity 80 kt.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL172011_Philippe.pdf

No longer holds record for longest to hurricane I don't think, they bumped it to 65 kt for a while on October 4 (and even that might be a bit low IMO based on ADT numbers). Interesting case made re: the ASCAT pass suggesting it might have hit hurricane intensity even earlier, but the Dvorak estimates supported much, much less.

I'd have bumped the peak intensity up to 85 kt (pressure 970mb) as one agency supported 90 kt plus the ADT was 85 kt.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Twelve-E report is up. Plenty of rain for Central America. Interesting sentence about the wave that formed this system.

Analysis of satellite imagery suggests that Tropical Depression Twelve-E developed from
the same tropical wave that produced Atlantic Hurricane Philippe.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122011_Twelve-E.pdf

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Ten report is up. Nothing outstanding here.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102011_Ten.pdf

Tropical Storm Jose report is up. Peak intensity was 40kts on this short lived storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112011_Jose.pdf

[lester]

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Another couple of Tropical Cyclone Reports have been completed and are available at the attached link - the latest two on Tropical Depression Ten and Tropical Storm Jose. These two cyclones combined lasted about as long as it took you to read this post.

http://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.Nationa ... 6135468375

[CrazyC83]

Ahhh, Irene's little brother and aborted fetus. Those two storms were always in her shadow.

[Macrocane]

Well ther radar image at least looks like a tropical cyclone but in visible and IR Jose was one of the worse looking tropical cyclone I've ever seen.

[CrazyC83]

Well ther radar image at least looks like a tropical cyclone but in visible and IR Jose was one of the worse looking tropical cyclone I've ever seen.

That looks like a hurricane on radar, yet on satellite it looked worse than many thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Emily post-season report. Peak intensity was 45kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052011_Emily.pdf

Hurricane Maria post-season report. Peak intensity was 70kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142011_Maria.pdf

Tropical Storm Sean post-season report.Peak intensity was 55kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL192011_Sean.pdf

[bg1]

Tropical Storm Emily post-season report. Peak intensity was 45kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052011_Emily.pdf

Hurricane Maria post-season report. Peak intensity was 70kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142011_Maria.pdf

Tropical Storm Sean post-season report.Peak intensity was 55kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL192011_Sean.pdf

The NHC did every storm except the one I wanted- Katia. All I want to know how far east it traveled!

I did see that they said on Facebook it should be done by the end of the month.

[CrazyC83]

Notice the 2nd stint in Emily was upgraded to a TS (not a TD as operationally). Also Maria made landfall in Newfoundland as a 60 kt TS, not a 65 kt cane.

[HURAKAN]

"Katia was a long-track, classical Cape Verde-type hurricane that attained category 4
status (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), but remained over the open Atlantic Ocean
throughout its lifetime as a tropical cyclone. However, as a large and powerful extratropical
cyclone, Katia produced hurricane-force wind gusts over much of the northern British Isles,
which caused some damage and loss of life."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122011_Katia.pdf

[CrazyC83]

Notice how long Katia was kept at 65 kt early on, I wonder if that was just because they didn't want to fluctuate it purely on Dvorak? Operationally it bumped up and down between storm and cane.

Also all three of the majors - and 5 of the 7 canes - peaked above 25N latitude. Tells you how horrible the conditions were in the deep tropics in 2011.

Only Rina remains in the Atlantic. 4th major in post-analysis? I doubt it personally. There is no data that I know of that supports Rina as a major hurricane.

[Florida1118]

Of the Atlantic storms, only Rina remains, and that report should be posted by the end of the week.

From NHC Facebook

[CrazyC83]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182011_Rina.pdf

Final numbers: 19/7/4. Upgraded to Cat 3 - 100 kt. Did not expect that upgrade but I see the basis - SFMR of 103 kt (which actually supports a 105 kt intensity if taken at face value).

[Macrocane]

That's a nice surprise, fortunately Central America dodge that bullet. Four major hurricanes doesn't sound like a "boring" season does it?