Developing Low -Heavy Rain/Gale Force Winds- Is invest 93L

[Vortex]

Rain, lightning and thunder coming down at this hour along fort lauderdale beach. IMO, 4-8" flooding and power outages as winds gust 30-40 tonight appear a good bet.

[Vortex]

6Z GFS shifts west and develops low over eastern Gulf....When all is said and done there are going to be places in south/central FL especially along the coast that end up with localized 10-15" of rain...Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out either...


6z GFS H+48


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal048.gif

[jlauderdal]

Rain, lightning and thunder coming down at this hour along fort lauderdale beach. IMO, 4-8" flooding and power outages as winds gust 30-40 tonight appear a good bet.

im going to take a stroll over to anglins pier this afternoon when things get going and see if i can get out there, i have no idea what their threshold is but we will find out later

[Vortex]

Rain, lightning and thunder coming down at this hour along fort lauderdale beach. IMO, 4-8" flooding and power outages as winds gust 30-40 tonight appear a good bet.

im going to take a stroll over to anglins pier this afternoon when things get going and see if i can get out there, i have no idea what their threshold is but we will find out later

Might see ya down there ...High tide tonight 630-7 as well. With the persistant easterly flow and develping NE swell per NWS miami might make for an interesting evening...

[Vortex]

Given the fact it likely will be hybrid, but nonetheless I think the focal point by Sunday morning will be over the FL straights or just SW of Key west in terms of lowest pressures...

[CDO62]

NHC now has the area highlighted with development chances at 20%

[cycloneye]

NHC now has the area highlighted with development chances at 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 865 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...OR
ABOUT 1350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH
OF CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALL OF THE BAHAMAS.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Dean4Storms]

06Z GFS gets this low as far west in longitude as Mobile, AL, this changes things IMO. If this occurs then I think a possible transition to purely tropical stands a chance, more time over water and those waters still near 83-84F.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[dwsqos2]

Considering that every single reliable global model now shows a weak solution, I think chances of development of a classifiable entity are plunging. Blah, it's probably for the best; these kinds of systems usually just lead to criticism of the NHC anyway.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Gale warnings up now for coastal waters from Sebastian Inlet to Volusia County.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
824 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-101000-
/O.UPG.KMLB.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-111009T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.GL.W.0001.111008T1224Z-111010T1000Z/
/O.UPG.KMLB.GL.A.0001.111009T0800Z-111010T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
824 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY.

* WINDS AND SEAS: EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 15 FEET
IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS BETWEEN 34 AND 47 KNOTS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS
REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

[SFLcane]

Considering that every single reliable global model now shows a weak solution, I think chances of development of a classifiable entity are plunging. Blah, it's probably for the best; these kinds of systems usually just lead to criticism of the NHC anyway.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Classification in not important here as this disturbance is bringing and will continue to bring a deluge of rain to the state.

[ronjon]

Hats off to the Euro again. At this time, not one model predicts development of the low pressure off the east coast of FL as even the stubborn 06Z GFS has finally trended west. Consenus is now for development off the NW coast of Cuba heading generally north in the eastern GOM - essentially the picture the ECM has painted the last 4-5 days. All models are showing a weaker solution with a rather broad circulation in the 1000-1004 mb range. Being so broad, it's unlikely to consolidate to a true tropical warm cored system in time before it crosses the big bend region of FL. The good news is that it'll be a huge rain maker for FL and parts of south Ga that have really be stricken by a long term drought as summer rainfall has been much below normal along the FL east coast and north FL.

[NDG]

Check out some of the winds 20 miles offshore, 14' waves now being reported by buoy 41009

Conditions at 41009 as of
(9:20 am EDT)
1320 GMT on 10/08/2011:

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 42.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 14.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.10 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 70.7 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

[ronjon]

Surface pressure has dropped 3 mb over western and central Cuba over the last 24 hrs. Lowest pressures reported at several Cuban stations including Havana are now 29.88 in.

[NDG]

Urban flood advisory up now for most of eastern central FL counties through the afternoon.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1011 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FLC009-069-095-097-117-127-082000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0064.111008T1411Z-111008T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-LAKE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD-
1011 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

* AT 1010 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN IN RAIN SQUALLS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ACROSS COASTAL VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES AND MOVING INTO
INTERIOR AREAS FROM NORTHEAST LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE AND NORTHEAST
OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SQUALLS CONTINUING TO MOVE
ONSHORE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER A WIDE AREA WITH LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ROADWAYS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RAINFALL REPORTS OF OVER FIVE INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN
THE MELBOURNE AREA SINCE LAST EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE
CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL IS CAUSING PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AND RURAL AREAS AND WILL ELEVATE RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS. MINOR
FLOODING MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY LANE OR ROAD CLOSURES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 20advisory

[N2FSU]

Joe Bastardi tweet: "ship at 29.0 north and 79.3 west has sustained winds of 44 kts with seas near 15 feet"

[Sanibel]

Hope that rain parks over us, we could use it.


Looks like a dry scattered monsoon trough at the moment with unseasonably early diving trough in the Gulf.

[Vortex]

Just reported 47mph wind gust with intense squall moving in off the ocean on fort lauderdale beach. Small branches, palm fronts all over the yard.

[Vortex]

This is some event continues sustained 30-40 with gusts near 50. 1-2 inches per hour!!!

[SFLcane]

This is some event continues sustained 30-40 with gusts near 50. 1-2 inches per hour!!!

Ridiculous heavy rainfall across dade county with this most recent squall...Looked like a TS! I can imagine there has to be flooding in many areas across sfl. More to come through the day with winds increasing & gusting to 30-35mph later this afternoon with stronger gusts in T-storms.