Colorado State University 2012 forecasts

[cycloneye]

Note= The peeps dont have to look for the forecast thru the posts as the easy way is going to the first post of thread where you can find all the forecasts as they are issued,thank you.

[psyclone]

I agree with their outlook for a much more tranquil season and am looking forward to it

[xironman]

This year the CFSv2 has proven itself much better that v1, here is what it has for SST during the season, will be a shootout with the Euro.

[HurrMark]

Keep in mind that a "slow" season could be just as devastating, if not more, than an active one. The last two seasons, which had 38 storms combined, only mustered up one US hurricane landfall (and there is some slight debate over whether it was a hurricane at landfall), one moderate TS, one TS by the skin of its teeth, and one depression. So, yes, there was a lot of activity, but since so many of those storms formed well out to sea, and the steering patterns were favorable for recurve (lower pressure throughout the Atlantic), you got a lot more bark than bite. This year, with higher pressures, anything that does form, even if it's fewer in quantity, would probably be more likely to move westward and closer to land. So definitely do not let your guard down...

I will say that I do think that there is probably some long term (decadal or multi-decadal in nature) feature out there that has resulted in less US landfall activity than you would expect. With the exceptions of 2004 and 2005, and to a lesser extent 2003 and 2008, the last 10-12 years have been remarkably quiet for US concerns, despite the active and hyperactive activity that has been seen during this time throughout the Atlantic. When Canada is getting more tropical action than the US some years, something is up...

[Ptarmigan]

Keep in mind that a "slow" season could be just as devastating, if not more, than an active one. The last two seasons, which had 38 storms combined, only mustered up one US hurricane landfall (and there is some slight debate over whether it was a hurricane at landfall), one moderate TS, one TS by the skin of its teeth, and one depression. So, yes, there was a lot of activity, but since so many of those storms formed well out to sea, and the steering patterns were favorable for recurve (lower pressure throughout the Atlantic), you got a lot more bark than bite. This year, with higher pressures, anything that does form, even if it's fewer in quantity, would probably be more likely to move westward and closer to land. So definitely do not let your guard down...

I will say that I do think that there is probably some long term (decadal or multi-decadal in nature) feature out there that has resulted in less US landfall activity than you would expect. With the exceptions of 2004 and 2005, and to a lesser extent 2003 and 2008, the last 10-12 years have been remarkably quiet for US concerns, despite the active and hyperactive activity that has been seen during this time throughout the Atlantic. When Canada is getting more tropical action than the US some years, something is up...

1985 and 1989 were less active as compared to more recent season as they were in a cooler phase. Yet, those seasons had many storms make landfall on America. I think slow seasons are more dangerous as it makes people complacent. Not sure about 1900 as there were no satellites back than, but that season was also a slow season (7/5/2). It was the year of the Great Galveston Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

IMO,the June 1rst forecast will be the most important one as it will have much more advanced data by the ENSO models and also, on how the sst's are doing in the Atlantic.

[Frank2]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2012/apr2012/apr2012.pdf

Interesting that they mention El Nino, because the strong Gulf of Mexico low over the weekend was very much like those seen during an El Nino event...

My own guess - beware when the experts say it's going to be quiet - similar to 2006 when they all said it would be a continuation of 2005 - but was just the opposite, due to an earlier-than-expected arrival of El Nino...

Frank2

[wxman57]

It's a combination of factors, all pointing toward less named storms this season:

1. Weak to moderate El Nino
2. Cooler AMO (normal to below normal SSTs in MDR)
3. Quite high MSL pressure anomaly projected by the Euro across the Gulf/Caribbean/MDR this year (more sinking air, less tstms)
4. Strong trade winds in MDR (due to stronger Bermuda High and +NAO) causing low-level shear and upwelling of cooler water.
5. Quite low MSLP anomaly in the East Pac, resulting in increased tstms, more rising air there (and sinking air in Gulf/Caribbean). Very active East Pac season likely.

All signals are pointing to reduced activity this season. Maybe even <10 for a change.

[Frank2]

Thanks for that information - sounds like Florida will see more northwesterly or northerly winds this summer if the high is going to be to our west, so that could mean hot (high 90s) weather for South Florida - ugh...

[Cyclenall]

All signals are pointing to reduced activity this season. Maybe even <10 for a change.

2009 Atlantic Season had 9 named storms so been there done that.

5. Quite low MSLP anomaly in the East Pac, resulting in increased tstms, more rising air there (and sinking air in Gulf/Caribbean). Very active East Pac season likely.

Do you think NOAA will finally forecast an above average season for the Epac? Year in and year out its the same thing, below average activity in the Epac even during the 2006 and 2009 seasons!

[NDG]

The CSU group will be updating their seasonal forecast today.
It will be interesting to see what their updated numbers will look like. I am sure that they will up their forecast by 1 or 2 named storms since we already had 2 named storms, but I am interested to see if they will up their numbers of hurricanes based on recent state of the NAO during the last 60 days, current Atlantic's MDR SSTs and that Nino 3.4 Region is taking its sweet time to warm up during the past month.

[cycloneye]

Here is the June 1rst forecast that increase by three the number of named storms from the April report.


http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2012.pdf

Part of the Abstract:

We foresee slightly below-average activity for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. We
have increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty
in both the phase of ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. We anticipate a
slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane
landfall.

The landfall probabilities in their June forecast.

[NDG]

Wow, they raised the total number of storms by more than I thought they were going to.

[cycloneye]

Here are the four analog years that they mention in the June forecast:

1953



1968



2001



2009

[Stormcenter]

We have 2 early season storms so the raise their prediction by 3 to be "safe"......you gotta love it. That should not be a surpise to anyone. Folks like I said many times before it's quality and NOT quanity that matters the most during hurricane season.

[hurricanetrack]

Gotta totally agree with you on that one Stormcenter. It's all about where and how strong, if at all. If none, then so be it. The clock is ticking now.

[NDG]

We have 2 early season storms so the raise their prediction by 3 to be "safe"......you gotta love it. That should not be a surpise to anyone. Folks like I said many times before it's quality and NOT quanity that matters the most during hurricane season.

They raised it because I think it also had to do with that the Atlantic conditions have been "marginal" during the last couple of months, liked they mentioned. In another words, good chance that they will not be horrible for development during the season.
But I agree with you, is not about quantity is about quality.

[JPmia]

FSU released their forecast today too.


"This year's forecast calls for a 70 percent probability of 10 to 16 named storms and 5 to 9 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy (ACE; a measure of the strength and duration of storms) of 122"
http://coaps.fsu.edu/hurricanes

[pricetag56]

large amounts of uncertainty? in other words they have no idea how the hurricane seaosn will play out.

[SFLcane]

Here are the four analog years that they mention in the June forecast:

1953

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_ar ... at1953.gif

1968

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_ar ... at1968.gif

2001

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_ar ... at2001.gif

2009

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_ar ... at2009.gif

Those analog years look fairly active for Florida expect for 2009.