NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[nashrobertsx]

NEW ORLEANS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM MONDAY MORNING. SECOND TIME THEY REFERENCED A CLOSED LOW IN THE LAST TWO DAYS

.MARINE...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE A
COASTAL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUNDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR A FEW HOURS EACH NIGHT...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 3 FEET.
THIS PHENOMENON WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A MORE GENERAL 10
TO 15 KNOT WIND EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY THIS NOCTURNAL COASTAL JET...WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST COMPONENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS.
HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF STRONG COLD OR DRY AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 2 FEET. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF
TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD PUSH
SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS BY SATURDAY OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO AROUND 3 TO 4
FEET. 32

[wxman57]

I see no mention of a "closed low" in the discussion, just low pressure in the Gulf along the decaying frontal boundary. Nothing in the Gulf tropical-wise this week.

[Aric Dunn]

Would be closely watching the BOC the next couple days. looks like we have some low level turning developing today.

[thundercam96]

Models In The Long Range Have This System Moving Into The Northern Or Western Gulf Of Mexico According To Rob Lightbown Of Crown Weather. He Has Development Around The 15th Of This Month.

[thundercam96]

Here Is The Tropical Weather Discussion By Rob Lightbown Of Crown Weather:

Full Article (With Pictures For Reference): http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7004


The main weather story this morning in the tropical Atlantic is a deep fetch of tropical moisture that stretches from the southeastern Bahamas westward across Cuba into the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America. One area of much deeper convection has developed over eastern Belize this morning. Some increase in vorticity has been noted in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, however, there is little or no low-level convergence or vorticity in the area. So, my take is that this is a piece of mid-level energy that is tracking through. Additionally, shear values across the area are running between 20 and 30 knots with shear values as high as 50 knots in the Gulf of Mexico.

Based on everything I have looked at this morning, I think the chances of tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean or anywhere else in the tropical Atlantic is very low this week.

Things may change, however, once we get into next week. The entire forecast pattern for next week continues to point towards the potential for tropical development in either the northwestern Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico right around June 15th. The entire pattern is expected to evolve into a upper level ridge of high pressure building westward from the northeastern United States into the northern Great Lakes and northern Plains states between June 11th and June 14th. This rising of barometric pressures will in turn lead to a lowering of barometric pressures in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico by about the middle of June and thus potentially lead to the development of a tropical cyclone right around June 15th.

The GFS model guidance continues to insist that a tropical cyclone will develop near Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula on June 15th and track into the southern Gulf of Mexico by June 17th. From there, the GFS model guidance forecasts that this tropical system may affect either the northern or western Gulf states by June 18th or 19th.

If this isn’t enough evidence: The day 8 and day 11 forecast analogs for the 500 millibar pattern shows some very curious dates. One being June of 1957, another being June of 2001 and yet another being June of 1953. Why are these three years important and lend to the support for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico by mid-June?

So, needless to say this will be something that will need to be watched for extremely closely as we get closer to June 15th. I think there is enough evidence out there to support a fairly good chance of a tropical system, whether it be a tropical storm or a hurricane developing in the northwestern Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico right around June 15th.

[Portastorm]

FWIW, Larry Cosgrove and Joe Bastardi have been suggesting the same thing around the same time.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z gfs showing a whole lot of moisture and convection but does not organize anything. although the gfs has always had a tendency to have a weak reflection even with a ongoing tropical system.

[Aric Dunn]

vorticity slowly increasing in the BOC.

[Cyclenall]

Here Is The Tropical Weather Discussion By Rob Lightbown Of Crown Weather:

Full Article (With Pictures For Reference): http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7004

*Cut*

If this isn’t enough evidence: The day 8 and day 11 forecast analogs for the 500 millibar pattern shows some very curious dates. One being June of 1957, another being June of 2001 and yet another being June of 1953. Why are these three years important and lend to the support for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico by mid-June?

I have never heard of this "day 8 and day 11 forecast analogs for the 500 millibar pattern" before. I'm interested in these analog pattern recognition tools. June 1957 perks my attention, another Hurricane Audrey scenario being suggested? That year is also mentioned a few times as an analog to the season as a whole and with the Gulf warming up rapidly (TCHP/SST maps show dramatic warming and warm eddies spinning off into the western area), your imagination starts up. That would also fit in with my prediction of everything from here on out will be a major hurricane (all or nothing).

This is Audrey's start: 06/25/06Z - 60 knots - TROPICAL STORM -- Seems like it was most likely a TS and TD a while before this so maybe 2 days (23) was when it became a TD. If you believe the energy was there long before this which I think was, then 7 days of development would mean very first origins could be the 16th of June. If anyone has further information on early origins of Audrey or info on the Gulf in June 1957, I would be interested to see if any further comparisons could be drawn.

[CrazyC83]

Here Is The Tropical Weather Discussion By Rob Lightbown Of Crown Weather:

Full Article (With Pictures For Reference): http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7004

*Cut*

If this isn’t enough evidence: The day 8 and day 11 forecast analogs for the 500 millibar pattern shows some very curious dates. One being June of 1957, another being June of 2001 and yet another being June of 1953. Why are these three years important and lend to the support for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico by mid-June?

I have never heard of this "day 8 and day 11 forecast analogs for the 500 millibar pattern" before. I'm interested in these analog pattern recognition tools. June 1957 perks my attention, another Hurricane Audrey scenario being suggested? That year is also mentioned a few times as an analog to the season as a whole and with the Gulf warming up rapidly (TCHP/SST maps show dramatic warming and warm eddies spinning off into the western area), your imagination starts up. That would also fit in with my prediction of everything from here on out will be a major hurricane (all or nothing).

This is Audrey's start: 06/25/06Z - 60 knots - TROPICAL STORM -- Seems like it was most likely a TS and TD a while before this so maybe 2 days (23) was when it became a TD. If you believe the energy was there long before this which I think was, then 7 days of development would mean very first origins could be the 16th of June. If anyone has further information on early origins of Audrey or info on the Gulf in June 1957, I would be interested to see if any further comparisons could be drawn.

Another thing about Audrey: it was almost certainly not a Category 4 at landfall, in fact it was probably only a Category 1 or 2. That should tell people that lower-category hurricanes can still be very devastating.

[Cyclenall]

Another thing about Audrey: it was almost certainly not a Category 4 at landfall, in fact it was probably only a Category 1 or 2. That should tell people that lower-category hurricanes can still be very devastating.

Do you know anything about the early origins of Audrey though? The re-analysis project isn't up there I suppose but I know it was detected late because of the starting strength.

[djones65]

Cycle,
If you google the Monthly Weather Review article on "Audrey" you will ind a very detailed article regarding its embryonic stages. Including the first observations confirming a closed circulation from Carmen, MX on June 24th. It describes an easterly wave propogating westward thru the Caribbean, but was difficult to track due to sparsity of data observations from June 20th through 24th. I believe the info you are desiring may be inclusive with that article. It is a good read in my opinion.

[tailgater]

Hum.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN
a 3.4 mb drop in the last 24 hrs., it is rising at 10: 50 pm but that's a pretty good drop, something might be festering, let's see what the next couple days bring.

[Cyclenall]

Cycle,
If you google the Monthly Weather Review article on "Audrey" you will ind a very detailed article regarding its embryonic stages. Including the first observations confirming a closed circulation from Carmen, MX on June 24th. It describes an easterly wave propogating westward thru the Caribbean, but was difficult to track due to sparsity of data observations from June 20th through 24th. I believe the info you are desiring may be inclusive with that article. It is a good read in my opinion.

Thank you for that, I read the section and it was excellent for Audrey as a whole and had some information on the origins but not the general pattern. I guess that's as much as there is because this was before the satellite era. A lot of information about how it became extratropical and its devastating effects in Canada (I didn't know it was a bad windstorm when it merged with another low).

Near the start of the document, it talks about an ill-defined wave so it must have added the potency to get something going. The PDF is here.

[Hurricanehink]

Completely unofficial and probably wrong, but it looks like something is trying to get going between Yucatan and Louisiana. At least, an area of convection has been persisting there and actually increasing.

[tailgater]

This the Buoy in the BOC
Conditions at 42055 as of
(6:50 am CDT)
1150 GMT on 06/05/2012:

Wind Direction (WDIR):

SE ( 140 deg true )



Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):

1007.4 mb





Pressure Tendency (PTDY):

+0.0 mb ( Steady

That's a 4.5 mb drop. over this time yesterday. also the NAM is hinting at a weak low forming in central GOM tomorrow and washing out on the the 8th.

[NDG]

Completely unofficial and probably wrong, but it looks like something is trying to get going between Yucatan and Louisiana. At least, an area of convection has been persisting there and actually increasing.

I don't see any evidence of a well defined surface circulation trying to get going, shear is very high across the GOM, doubt anything will try to get going with such conditions.

[northjaxpro]

Completely unofficial and probably wrong, but it looks like something is trying to get going between Yucatan and Louisiana. At least, an area of convection has been persisting there and actually increasing.

I don't see any evidence of a well defined surface circulation trying to get going, shear is very high across the GOM, doubt anything will try to get going with such conditions.

Yep, too much shear for anything to develop in the GOM in the short term.

[psyclone]

I am interested in this not so much from a tropical development potential but rather a heavy rain event for still parched areas of florida, especially on the west coast from west central fl up through the big bend region. if this moisture gets tangled up with a dying front from the north, there could be some very heavy rain totals, maybe even a decisive drought buster. let's hope.

[northjaxpro]

I am interested in this not so much from a tropical development potential but rather a heavy rain event for still parched areas of florida, especially on the west coast from west central fl up through the big bend region. if this moisture gets tangled up with a dying front from the north, there could be some very heavy rain totals, maybe even a decisive drought buster. let's hope.

Yes, that would be a great thing to happen for these areas of the peninsula no doubt. It is actually forecast to happen the next couple of days as the front sags south and becomes stationary along the northern Gulf Coast area and the convective area down in the south central GOM should converge upon the peninsula. Strong to possibly severe storms are possible late this afternoon into this evening across the northern and central Florida peninsula.