Small swirl south of Florida Panhandle

[ROCK]

with no model support its hard to support developement...that said the models are not always right either. I have been watching the NOGAPS for fun but I did see it picked up on this feature a few days ago....blind squirrel maybe...but it still needs to get a LLC for it to verify.

Well, initially NHC had analyzed a 1012 mb Low at 12Z. They changed that to now be a weaker 1015 mb surface reflection at 15Z just south of Panama City.

I agree with Aric. If the convective complex continues to persists, there is a decent chance a stronger low-level surface reflection can form closer to that area. I have been closely watching this small system ever since it emerged off shore of Mobile on Wednesday night and it definitely has improved in the past 48 hours.

This system is getting over 85 degree sea surface temps and the environment is gradually becoming conducive for development. Not only did NOGAPS indicate a surface feature in this region the past couple of days, but so did NAM as well. I remember that 96 hour NAM run which actually closed off this feature as it moved westward valid Sunday 6-17. We will see.

Yeah, I was leaving the NAM posting to IVANHATER since he loves that model.... but good for the NAM it doesnt get much run on tropical features but it handles CONUS weather well....

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD LATER
TODAY...AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[ROCK]

at least they mentioned it....

[northjaxpro]

Well, at least NHC mentioned this area in the TWO. I was not surprised by that. They are watching it closely like the rest of us.

[ROCK]

Well, at least NHC mentioned this area in the TWO. I was not surprised by that. They are watching it closely like the rest of us.

lol...great minds think alike....

[MGC]

Thankfully shear above the GOM is pretty strong right now......MGC

[northjaxpro]

Checked the shear values and there has been a small drop off in the area where this small system is currently. Shear is still around 25-30 knots or so in the region currently, but it is slowly decreasing to the point where conditions could become marginally conducive as time progresses if this trend continues.

[northjaxpro]

TWD excerpt from NHC at 2:00 p.m. Interesting that NHC notes the short term models are suggesting this system to dissipate by Sunday.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT THAT COVERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD IS
SUPPORTING A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE GULF CLOSE
TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA NEAR 29N86W.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
83W-88W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER INDICATED GUSTY
ESE WINDS UP TO 25 KT. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK SSE OVER TH NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING WESTWARD AND DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

[Dean4Storms]

I'll say one thing...... The rotation on this has become much more defined on radar. Think we might have to watch this one closely.

It has produced and nice easterly breeze here in Destin today!!

[northjaxpro]

I am with you Dean. The 12Z Euro showed this system in tact as a strong vorticity max approaching the SW Louisiana coast during the day on Sunday. NHC states that the models are suggesting dissipation of this system this afternoon, but I don't think this system is going to completely fizzle out. It remains to be se seen if it can become a bit more organized of course. Conditions at the moment are not favorable, but the latest shear forecast are calling for values to decrease in the Northern Gulf area in the next few days where conditions could become at least marginally conducive. Also, with 85 degree SSTs out there in the GOM, I don't see this just fizzling out. I'll eat crow if it turns out I am wrong with this, something I am accustomed of doing in my past at times

[tailgater]

I'm looking at the latest visible loop and I don't see anything that looks remotely like it could develop, it barely looks like a trough anymore. but I guess if it sits out over the GOM long enough.

[Stormcenter]

I don't see anything either. It's having a hard time dealing with shear. IMO

I'm looking at the latest visible loop and I don't see anything that looks remotely like it could develop, it barely looks like a trough anymore. but I guess if it sits out over the GOM long enough.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, the shear and prolly the dry air to it's north really killed it.

[northjaxpro]

I won't pronounced it dead just yet. Still a weak surface 1014 mb Low in the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N 85W.

Still a decent chance convection can fire up again overnight, but the environment still not conducive for development until shear decreases. This weak Low will start to move westward shortly as ridging is building down from the Mid Atlantic.

[vbhoutex]

I won't pronounced it dead just yet. Still a weak surface 1014 mb Low in the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N 85W.

Still a decent chance convection can fire up again overnight, but the environment still not conducive for development until shear decreases. This weak Low will start to move westward shortly as ridging is building down from the Mid Atlantic.

I don't mind the moving Westward as long as all it does is bring us some rain here in SE TX. But with everything else the models are showing for next week, I may reverse my stance on this.