Strong Wave East of Windward Islands-(Is Invest 97L)

[Aric Dunn]

yeah if strong enough low level convergence develops. It could over come the stable environment.

[Aric Dunn]

TPW showing the rotation very nicely.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

I think its best chance will be in about a day or so when it moves over 27c + sst's if the circ it has now can maintain over even become just a little more organized then it might have a shot. right now its sitting over barely 26C sst's but from here on out increase.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Gustywind]

Aric, now what do the models before reaching the Lesser Antilles? Any idea? Thanks for your greats and interresting comments as usual.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, now what do the models before reaching the Lesser Antilles? Any idea? Thanks for your greats and interresting comments as usual.

none of them develop anything substantial and the gfs has backed off a little, but its a small system and most models wont pick up it right away. just looks like rain unless it develops.

[Gustywind]

Aric, now what do the models before reaching the Lesser Antilles? Any idea? Thanks for your greats and interresting comments as usual.

none of them develop anything substantial and the gfs has backed off a little, but its a small system and most models wont pick up it right away. just looks like rain unless it develops.

Ok thanks for your input,i appreciate .

[cycloneye]

Gusty,as you know, we need rain badly in the NE Caribbean and that is what we are going to get by next Sunday/Monday and that is why I am cheering for this wave to not weaken with the dust around.

[Aric Dunn]

I do believe that a couple days ago the GFS had a much more aggressive system coming into the NE carrib ?

[cycloneye]

I do believe that a couple days ago the GFS had a much more aggressive system coming into the NE carrib ?

Yes,that is correct. But we take whatever rain the wave brings at this point because is very dry here.

[Gustywind]

Gusty,as you know that we need rain badly in the NE Caribbean and that is what we are going to get by next Sunday/Monday and that is why I am cheering for this wave to not weaken with the dust around.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif

badly you said... is an euphemisma! Just today, the journalists were taking about an emergency plan given the lack of water. We could not wait for another dry and hot week in Guadeloupe. So as you i hope sincerely that this twave bring nice showers on most of the EC carib islands included la isla del encanto Queremos un salsa con agua, agua, agua, oye lo bien

[drezee]

hwrf tries to develop it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

interesting look at the 12z cmc

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ATCcane]

Seems to be some limited off and on model support. Will provide an area of interest to watch for the rest of this week into the weekend anyway. Nice ridge to for it to follow it seems.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=ir

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Most of the models show a pretty strong ridge...this area of weather should move into the Caribbean and bring
rains to the islands...after that depending on the strength of the ridge we can determine if it gets into the
GOM or if it goes into MX... but that is too far out to predict

One thing for sure though, the current pattern shows a very strong ridge unlike the trough situation
we had this past week. The ridge does not want to budge.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting to see some liking from some of the models.

[Kingarabian]

Really sexy rotation.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is that an LLC I C...errr....see?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Aric Dunn]

Is that an LLC I C...errr....see?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

possibly. its mat not be all the way to the surface but if some deeper convection builds it could

[pricetag56]

You can clearly see the LL swirl taking shape now interesting?