Complex in Northeast GOM

[wxman57]

West and northwest winds north of the thunderstorms - general anticyclonic flow at the surface across the eastern Gulf. Development potential remains slim.

[Stormcenter]

Thunderstorms complex give the illusion of a spin (circulation).

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[christchurchguy]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

some N-NE wind vectors on the coast of florida near the thunderstorms at 1615 UTC

[northjaxpro]

I've seen this too often with this system the past couple of days. Convection will flare-up, but die out and go poof after sunset. Dry air has been the chief inhibitor of this system. Bottom line, convection has to sustain itself for this system to have any enhanced probabilities of trying to develop. It is sitting in some of the warmest sea surface temps in the Atlantic basin currently. That reason alone gives it a slight chance to develop if the atmosphere surrounding the system can moisten up a bit more and shear stays at least near marginally conducive levels.

[tolakram]

Speed up for full effect.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Doesn't look like anything is under that convection.

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[Aric Dunn]

Speed up for full effect.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Doesn't look like anything is under that convection.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

no but just off shore the big bend there is. weak and elongated over florida. not likely to do anything though

[Stormcenter]

It's really the only thing of interest to look at right now.
Convection is still maintaining.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmmmmm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[tolakram]

Closer look, live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

hmmm2

nearby buoy (live chart)

[Dean4Storms]

Just don't have any indication yet that a surface circulation has materialized, although if this deep convection continues that won't be a question much longer!

[Dean4Storms]

One thing I have noticed today is the lack of an outflow racing away. We did have one yesterday race eastward.

[TexasF6]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF WV SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS. AT THE
BOTTOM OF THIS TROUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN MEXICO. STEERING FLOW IN THIS REGION IS VERY LIGHT AND
THE STORMS ARE NEARLY STATTIONARY. MODELS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION
COULD SPREAD TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR THE EVENING.
IN THE GULF...THERE IS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL SPREAD TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THU EVENING. FRI THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND BRING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT EXTREME.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

There's the outflow boundary, poofation in progress.

[Dean4Storms]

Not necessarily Mark, lets wait to see if convection re-fires this evening. It sure has a nice rotation on radar and a big line of convection now racing toward it from the Cape San Blas to Appalachicola area, it might enhance it this evening.

[Dean4Storms]

Convection firing out there once again.......

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[MGC]

Mid level circulation clearly evident on NW Florida long range radar loop. This thing refuses to die.....the longer it festers out over that warm water the greater the chances of it spinning up.......MGC

[Dean4Storms]

Mid level circulation clearly evident on NW Florida long range radar loop. This thing refuses to die.....the longer it festers out over that warm water the greater the chances of it spinning up.......MGC

NWS Mobile mentioned that in their Discussion this afternoon that the latent heat releases of the convection, if they continue could produce a low at the surface, needs monitoring overnight. If it is there in the morning still going we may have a player!

[MGC]

Good bit of convection now scattered about the circulation center....whats going on down there????...>>>MGC

[NDG]

No evidence of a surface circulation underneath the convection that I can tell.

[tolakram]

Some re-firing after completely poofing last night.