Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

A 1012 MB LOW IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N26W MOVING
W 15-20 KT. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
Begins to deepen this wave near PR, but gets torn apart b/c it travels over PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba. The wave continues into the GOM.

00z Euro: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Begins to deepen as it approaches the islands, then moves over PR and DR then turns NW develops into a storm and recurves offshore of the CONUS.

Conditions seem to improve as this wave nears PR and if this wave stays away from the big mountains it may have a shot. Can't believe only a few are talking about this!

Of course this is all just my opinion!!

[cycloneye]

Here is the San Juan NWS discussion about wave.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST THU JUL 26 2012


.DISCUSSION...VERY FEW SHOWERS APPEARED ON RADAR OVERNIGHT AND
THESE WERE QUITE LIGHT. FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS HAS TURNED TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH
COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY. FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
BUT CHANCES INCREASE A LITTLE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH STRONGER
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT GUSTY WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS MUCH IN THE
FORECAST. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THE LIFTED INDEX DROPPING BELOW MINUS
4 ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING BETWEEN MINUS 4 AND MINUS 6 THROUGH 4
AUGUST. VERY STABLE INDICES...FOR OUR AREA...OF GREATER THAN MINUS
1 ARE INDICATED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW. ALL CLOSED LOWS LEAVING AFRICA BECOME OPEN WAVES
IN THE 26/00Z GFS RUN BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA NOW THROUGH
4 AUGUST. SYSTEMS ALSO APPEAR WEAKER IN THE ECMWF.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

A 1012 MB LOW IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N29W MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW OVER THE NE
SEMICIRCLE.

[wxman57]

It's just a convectionless low-level swirl today. Development chances near zero over the next 5 days, though it could bring some rain the the NE Caribbean next Mon/Tue.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

we'll probably see more traffic by next wed if it still looks like there is a good chance of development then. right now, it is literally just "off the radar" of concern.

[Sanibel]

This one held together. It shouldn't be long even though the rest of the west basin is really negative.

[Blown Away]

GFS/EURO have been consistently showing better organization of this wave as it nears the NE Caribbean, hard to discount this potential. This wave is flying across the Atlantic at near 23 mph, so it will get to the NE Caribbean faster than normal at this pace.

and JB in tweeting about this wave!!

[Aric Dunn]

it reminds me of franklin in 2005. it started out as a very large dry and broad circ and eventually started organizing north of the islands and into the bahamas.
this should have a decent shot as it moves over warmer water and a more unstable environment in a couple days. by then we will likely start to see some convection starting to increase, first as popcorn type then slowly become more sustained.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... %282005%29

[cycloneye]

TAFB at the 12z Surface Analysis stripped the low from Wave.

[floridasun78]

it look like this other wave that wont gave us next name models could be wrong making area into system

[Aric Dunn]

well the gfs is very similar as before but just a little more organized initially. the nogaps come back to development.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Blown Away]

12z GFS still wants to deepen this wave as it nears the NE Caribbean, but continues running over PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba and gets destroyed moving the wave energy into the GOM. If the GFS runs this wave just N of the islands I bet it will develop it! Wait and see!! JMHO...
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012


TROPICAL WAVE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ERN TRPCL ATLC ANALYZED FROM
18N30W TO 10N32W. THIS SYSTEM WAS LABELED AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON PREVIOUS SURFACE MAPS. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER UNFAVORABLE REGIONS OF DEVELOPMENT...IT'S LOW LEVEL CENTER
HAS WEAKENED EXPOSING ONLY A WAVE AXIS. THIS SCENARIO WAS
CONCLUDED THIS MORNING AS AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WENT OVER
THIS REGION INDICATING THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS...WHICH IS FOUND WEST OF A REGION OF DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOME MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS ON THE
CLOUD PATTERN ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY.
THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MOSTLY S OF THE WAVE
AXIS WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro trending farther south with the wave now south of PR. closer to GFS

[cycloneye]

Aric,not bad at all. This pass was made at 10:00 AM EDT.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah it has a large but broad circ. if any convection developed would not take long to organize...


euro now in the SE bahamas and looks like its starting to develop.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif


then does nothing as it moves through the bahamas and towards the SE.

[mzcocoapuf]

Is this going to curve out into the atlantic? Looks awful close to the east coast if it develops. Making me a lil nervous....

[Nimbus]

So Aric are you saying it's time for Florida mobile homeowners to buy insurance? Lot of people got caught back in 2004 and 2005, I think the insurance companies require you have coverage before a storm develops or they won't pay for damages.

[Aric Dunn]

well If I had a mobile home I would have insurance regardless.