2012 TCR's

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2419
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#41 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jan 09, 2013 5:54 pm

Kristy came out earlier today. No change as far as I can tell.

I just realized Paul came out as well. Reports coming out fast!
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jan 09, 2013 7:22 pm

Yep they probably worked on a lot of them over the holidays.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jan 09, 2013 7:25 pm

I also overheard that the Sandy TCR should be out around the end of January. Discussions at the AMS meeting suggest that it was a Cat 3 at Cuban landfall, but was definitely extratropical by the time it made landfall in New Jersey. There is some merit in a subtropical classification for a while from October 27 to near or at landfall though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:
Contact Hurricane_Luis

#44 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Jan 11, 2013 2:36 pm

Hurricane Ernesto up to a Catagory 2, 100 mph (85 Knots)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Jed
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 545
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:36 pm
Location: Cen Tex

#45 Postby Hurricane Jed » Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:43 pm

The report on Hurricane Sandy is in preparation, with a target release of early February. Per the NHC page on FB.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:28 am

I would say 105 kt was Sandy's peak intensity. I also think Sandy may have been a Cat 2 briefly on approach at 1200Z October 29, since there were 83 kt SFMR winds measured, although it weakened (and likely lost tropical characteristics) before landfall, which I estimate was at 70 kt (highest surface winds were around 60-65 kt adjusting for sustaining periods on land, and the strongest winds were over water).
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#47 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:16 pm

Patty and Rafael now out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

#48 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:10 pm

The TCR's for hurricanes Ileana, Gordon, and Miriam are out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145366
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2012 TCR's

#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:13 pm

:uarrow: No upgrade to major for Gordon.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:18 pm

Nope, basically no change at all for Gordon. The ADT supported 110 kt and the standard Dvorak supported 90 kt - I guess they felt the boundary layer didn't mix enough for an upgrade given the higher latitude?
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#51 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:22 pm

Remaining TCR's:

Atlantic - H Chris, H Isaac, H Leslie, H Sandy, TS Tony

EPAC - H Ileana, H Lane
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:26 pm

Ileana is a draft version:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092012_Ileana.pdf

It appears they are withdrawing it for further updates?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5313
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re:

#53 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Nope, basically no change at all for Gordon. The ADT supported 110 kt and the standard Dvorak supported 90 kt - I guess they felt the boundary layer didn't mix enough for an upgrade given the higher latitude?


Surprised that Gordon was not upgraded to a major hurricane. Expected Gordon to be upgraded.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Jed
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 545
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:36 pm
Location: Cen Tex

#54 Postby Hurricane Jed » Wed Jan 23, 2013 2:01 pm

With most northerly major hurricanes they always seem to be a little conservative.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2419
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#55 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jan 23, 2013 4:13 pm

Ileana is out again for good this time probably. One more left for the EPAC.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Jed
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 545
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:36 pm
Location: Cen Tex

#56 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:53 am

Tony is out
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#57 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:30 pm

Still awaiting Chris, Isaac, Leslie, Sandy and Lane.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

Re:

#58 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Still awaiting Chris, Isaac, Leslie, Sandy and Lane.

The TCR for Hurricane Isaac is scheduled to be released this week, with Sandy's scheduled for next week. That is not to say they may not come out a week or so late.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2419
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#59 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:41 pm

IMO I think Tony was a little stronger than they were saying due to impressive satellite that looked like it developed an eye on microwave.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Top
User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:
Contact Hurricane_Luis

Re: 2012 TCR's

#60 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:01 pm

No mention of the storm in early august (23rd July - 2nd August). I think i have an image of it, if i can find it i will post it.

EDIT: Found it :darrow: :darrow:

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 869MB, ElectricStorm, Lizzytiz1, USTropics and 47 guests