Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[Hurricane Alexis]

I would like some pro-met insight on this to see how organized it is and the conditions out ahead of it.

[jlauderdal]

GFS at 216 hours. Possibly another Isaac?

ridge looks locked down, decent chance of making it across

Making it across the GOM or the caribbean?

across the atlantic to at least the islands

[jlauderdal]

GFS at 216 hours. Possibly another Isaac?

ridge looks locked down, decent chance of making it across

Can you post a pic or a site that can be referred to, to explain what your'e saying please I don't want to take all my shutters down if I don't have to ...thx...ST

checkout this post in the thread... Mon Aug 27, 2012 6:43 pm..make sure you have plenty of escape routes in your residence if you leave shutters up, it can be very dangerous leaving them up..that said, i put mine up for floyd and left them up another 6 weeks but made sure there were plenty of places to exit if needed

[jlauderdal]

Well the since the model thread in Isaac is pointless now, unless one of em just goes off the reservation... Time to watch another long tracker...

I saw this pop up in the GFS when I was looking at Isaac's remnants raking Greenland..... So if anyone wants to freak out the already wound up N-GOMers

Tell em the GFS sends this in 2 weeks

that gfs run is kind of naked looking for this time of year...gfs usually has multiple systems on deck in late august, lets see how it pans out

[Hurricane Alexis]

Well the since the model thread in Isaac is pointless now, unless one of em just goes off the reservation... Time to watch another long tracker...

I saw this pop up in the GFS when I was looking at Isaac's remnants raking Greenland..... So if anyone wants to freak out the already wound up N-GOMers

Tell em the GFS sends this in 2 weeks

http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/2903 ... mb324o.gif

that gfs run is kind of naked looking for this time of year...gfs usually has multiple systems on deck in late august, lets see how it pans out

Must be the bad conditions in the atlantic the whole year causing the GFS not showing many storms at once.

[Kohlecane]

Uhhh eyyy wait this is gonna be my Big one

[cycloneye]

This is a saved loop. Wave has plenty of work to do to be a well organized system. Maybe some competition from wave behind going on.

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There are some intriguing congruencies among 1928, 1972, and 2004. 1972 and 2004, and perhaps 1928 as well, featured a similarly west-based evolution of El Niño in the Pacific--that is, El Niño developed in NINO 3, 3.4, and 4. 1972 and 2004 are also notable in that their first TC developed off the Carolinas and either moved NE (Alex 2004 was like Alberto 2012) or WSW (Alpha 1972 was like Beryl 2012). Also, 1928 and 2004 featured similarly westward-oriented tracks toward FL/Southeast of systems that originated in the deep tropics. Examine the following track maps and compare them to that of 2012:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1928/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1972/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2012/track.gif

Some people theorize that, under given environmental, seasonal conditions, the tracks in the early portion of a season may indicate a persistent pattern. As 2012 appears on track to have at least fifteen named storms, its relevance to an active year like 2004 may be enhanced in regard to heightened landfall probabilities. Based upon the evidence, and in accordance with the theory, the Southeast U.S., particularly South FL, would face an increased risk of landfalls over the next few weeks. As the GFS ensembles have consistently brought the current system near the Southeast, and as the ECMWF ensembles also show development, could they verify?

[wzrgirl1]

When do you think this will be declared as an invest?

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

[bonjourno]

So uh, here's what the 06z GFS did with our little friend.

[HurricaneFan]

[quote="bonjourno"]So uh, here's what the 06z GFS did with our little friend.

But where does it go before it reaches there?

[bonjourno]

From where it is now, kinda goes due west until it hits 55W, when at around 120 hours it starts turning NW (missing the Lesser Antilles and PR to the north), then begins to turn N around 70W (about 192 hours out) and kinda does a recurve, misses the US coast and ends up there.

[JPmia]

Based on the development pattern so far this year .. the trend appears to not support close in development.. more development is appearing in the MDR and East Atlantic.. that is different than what was forecasted I believe.. interesting:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Ntxw]

Based on the development pattern so far this year .. the trend appears to not support close in development.. more development is appearing in the MDR and East Atlantic.. that is different than what was forecasted I believe.. interesting:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I think the term close in development it's getting confused. It means systems don't develop until they get nearer to land i.e. Western Carib, Gulf, and just off east coast. Not necessarily that they are born in there. Gordon and Chris were in Mid-latitudes so not exactly MDR. The cape verdes area have killed off a lot of big African waves either splitting or choking them until further west.

[cycloneye]

Here is the discussion of this wave by Dr Jeff Masters.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving west at 15 mph. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The disturbance could begin to affect the Northern Lesser Antilles as early as Saturday night, though our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict the center of the disturbance will pass a few hundred miles north of the islands. The disturbance could be a long-range threat to Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS looks stronger than past runs and because of the intensity,it misses the islands.

114 hours.



132 hours.

[cycloneye]

After a close call with the Northern Leewards,it recurves going very close to Bermuda.

[Jevo]

Ah well.. Was hoping for a long tracker... 12zeez are curving it out to the Flemish Cap..... Because thats where the fish are... Euro coming up here soon

[MJS1]

I can't remember the last time I saw a CV invest/TC prognosticated to track all the way to the islands...all models I've seen have a re-curve bias..