Tropical Wave with low in East Atlantic (Is invest 91L)

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Dont' get me wrong here...I'm not predicting this..it's just a scenario.

[cycloneye]

What I gather from the 12z runs by GFS and ECMWF.

The Euro moves toward the West-Northwest and then to the Northwest and then recurving completely before 48W. The GFS recurves it in the vicinity of 60W. The Euro in 120 hours has it at 19N-42W. Let's see which will be right when the real thing develops and the other factors behave to move it one way or another.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Not attacking JB, but I bet he calls for another East Coast storm.

[blp]

What I gather from the 12z runs by GFS and ECMWF.

The Euro moves toward the West-Northwest and then to the Northwest and then recurving completely before 48W. The GFS already recurves it in the vicinity of 60W. The Euro in 120 hours has it at 19N-42W. Let's see which will be right when the real thing develops and the other factors behave to move it one way or another.

I see it. I think the difference is that the Euro ramps this up quickly and has a TS in 72hrs while the GFS does not start to ramp this up until 144hrs.

12Z GFS 144hr
http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/3589/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltrop.gif

12Z Euro 72hr
http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/2365/12zeurotropical500mbslpv.gif

[Floridaman]

Why do a lot of these storms keep curving out into the Atlantic? This is something that's been happening a lot the past few years.

[tolakram]

Why do a lot of these storms keep curving out into the Atlantic? This is something that's been happening a lot the past few years.

Most Cape Verde storms recurve. There's a lot of Atlantic to cover and almost always a trough (break in the ridge) that allows the storm to escape to the north.

[Hurricaneman]

The track of this is going to IMO be dependant on how Leslie moves the next few days, if Leslie moves out quicker causing the trough to possibly lift, the ridge has a chance to build blocking this from moving out to sea and possibly making it a long term threat, but that has IMO a 5% chance of happening

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[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO at 10%

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N16W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW AT
15N17W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER INDICATING THE
WAVES PRESENCE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 18W-20W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 15W-21W.

[ConvergenceZone]

Why do a lot of these storms keep curving out into the Atlantic? This is something that's been happening a lot the past few years.

Most Cape Verde storms recurve. There's a lot of Atlantic to cover and almost always a trough (break in the ridge) that allows the storm to escape to the north.

I agree, as long as tropical storms/hurricane have been tracked, you'll find that most of them do recurve out to sea. By recurving, they aren't doing anything different than they normally do. On the contrary, it's rare for them NOT to recurve when they have to traverse across the entire Atlantic...

[Fego]

Why do a lot of these storms keep curving out into the Atlantic? This is something that's been happening a lot the past few years.

Most Cape Verde storms recurve. There's a lot of Atlantic to cover and almost always a trough (break in the ridge) that allows the storm to escape to the north.

I agree, as long as tropical storms/hurricane have been tracked, you'll find that most of them do recurve out to sea. By recurving, they aren't doing anything different than they normally do. On the contrary, it's rare for them NOT to recurve when they have to traverse across the entire Atlantic...

I suppose is in their nature to look (move) to the north, unless something (a ridge) block them.

[cycloneye]

Saved image at 03:15 UTC.

[Sanibel]

It's exited Africa at a recurve latitude.

[cycloneye]

2 AM TWO up to 20%

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO up to 30%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

This is now invest 91L. Go to active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions.

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