Weak Surface Low in Western GOM - Yellow-20% (Is 94L)

[floridasun78]

rainy 4 for northern gulf

[wxman57]

I notice that NHC has switched their discussion from one disturbance (Bay of Campeche) to the other (western Caribbean) in the past few outlooks. The first disturbance should zip up the front and into the mid Gulf coast tomorrow. The second in the BoC might be a development risk by Sat PM/Sun as it moves northward into the NW Gulf.

Most likely, neither disturbance will develop. Perhaps some much-needed rainfall for SE TX this weekend.

[CrazyC83]

This is just a major flash flood threat for the entire eastern US more than anything.

[lrak]

I notice that NHC has switched their discussion from one disturbance (Bay of Campeche) to the other (western Caribbean) in the past few outlooks. The first disturbance should zip up the front and into the mid Gulf coast tomorrow. The second in the BoC might be a development risk by Sat PM/Sun as it moves northward into the NW Gulf.

Most likely, neither disturbance will develop. Perhaps some much-needed rainfall for SE TX this weekend.

Any hope for deep S. Tex Sir? Maybe a little swell action as well?

[vbhoutex]

I notice that NHC has switched their discussion from one disturbance (Bay of Campeche) to the other (western Caribbean) in the past few outlooks. The first disturbance should zip up the front and into the mid Gulf coast tomorrow. The second in the BoC might be a development risk by Sat PM/Sun as it moves northward into the NW Gulf.

Most likely, neither disturbance will develop. Perhaps some much-needed rainfall for SE TX this weekend.

Why the thought that we will have rain from this? At this point I don't see anything indicating that the stuff in the BOC will come N or NW and it appears the system in the E GOM is destined to go north at least in the short term. Please tell me what I am missing as I know I am missing something besides what the models are saying.

[Ntxw]

Why the thought that we will have rain from this? At this point I don't see anything indicating that the stuff in the BOC will come N or NW and it appears the system in the E GOM is destined to go north at least in the short term. Please tell me what I am missing as I know I am missing something besides what the models are saying.

Bermuda high split and retrogrades. Everything gets shunted around it so the eastern gulf clears while the mass shifts to the western gulf. Assuming whatever down there gets going at all.

[Extratropical94]

10%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[tailgater]

This wave/trough, North of the Yucatan channel looks like it's starting to get it's act together...............abiet the shear. Buoy 40023 has 25 knot winds ATM, pressures aren't dropping yet but I think they will soon if the convection continues.
850 vorticy

convergence

Divergence

[NDG]

GFS continues to show that the area to watch out for is the area down in the southern BOC as it tracks northward towards the NW GOM this weekend.
It should become in an invest by Friday by the look of things, IMO.

[Rgv20]

Things are sure looking interesting in the near future..

21zSREF Ensemble 48hrs forecast for Tropical Cyclone Development..

[HouTXmetro]

Any other models picking up on this?

[NDG]

Any other models picking up on this?

Yes, NAVGEM and CMC/GEM.
The ECMWF is not showing anything but is not like it does that great to begin with in the western GOM, for some reason.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE COULD
PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[gatorcane]

Upper-level winds are not conducive for development with strong S to SW shear due to the powerful ULL located off to the NW (looks more like a winter-time setup across the GOM). I don't see development out of this.

[wxman57]

I can't find any predicted low in the 00Z Canadian run. GFS has a 1010mb low moving into SW LA on Sunday afternoon. NHC's 10% area was another feature. 10% is VERY generous given the high shear across the central and eastern Gulf. Development chances through 48 hrs about 0.00000001%. Just some rain for the Gulf Coast along/ahead of that weak frontal boundary. With luck, the other feature will move out of the BoC tomorrow and possibly bring some rain to SE TX.

[NDG]

The first weak low pressure is pushing onshore near Pensacola, clearly seen on surface reports the weak circulation, the high shear is pushing everything eastward from the weak surface low.



The weak surface low has a pressure of near 1013mb, because of the pressure gradient, with Jacksonville reporting a pressure of 1021mb, fairly strong winds are being reported on the east side of the low pressure gusting close to tropical force winds.

Conditions at: KAAF observed 04 July 2013 14:09 UTC
Temperature: 24.0°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 22.0°C (72°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.06 inches Hg (1018.0 mb)
Winds: from the S (170 degrees) at 26 MPH (23 knots; 12.0 m/s)
gusting to 36 MPH (31 knots; 16.1 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 3100 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1200 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 2300 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 3100 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

[NDG]

I think the second feature coming out of the Yucatan Peninsula may have a chance at development if it gets a break from the shear.
The GFS is still fairly persistent in building a ridge close to the surface vorticity on Sunday and get located between two upper level lows creating an excellent outflow, if this happens the second system may have a chance to develop further before making landfall in the upper TX or LA coast, but as we know upper level conditions are very hard to forecast by models past a 48hr period so it may not happen at all. Something to watch out for right now.

[Dean4Storms]

Insane rain here at my house just east of Destin, FL. We're pushing 8 inches so far today already. Winds are gusting 20-25mph range.

[tolakram]

Gulf flow all the way up to Ohio, feels like we're on the beach up here. Flash flood watches from Gulf Shores all the way north to central Ohio. IMO This giant system has to clear out of here before any Gulf development is possible.



live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[LaBreeze]

Gulf flow all the way up to Ohio, feels like we're on the beach up here. Flash flood watches from Gulf Shores all the way north to central Ohio. IMO This giant system has to clear out of here before any Gulf development is possible.

http://imageshack.us/a/img69/183/db54.jpg

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Tolakram, how long do you see this current system hanging around before it clears out? Is it going to move more to the west, north, or east before clearing out? Thanks in advance.