Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Pouch PO9L)

[ozonepete]

Btw, hey King A, good to see you back for hurricane season 2013. I just needed to clarify that, of course, if there's enough dust, which has a lot of mass, it probably could slow down spin in a closed circulation that comes off the African coast, but it seems that in most cases it is mainly prohibitive in allowing convection to develop as opposed to preventing vorticity.

[Kingarabian]

Btw, hey King A, good to see you back for hurricane season 2013. I just needed to clarify that, of course, if there's enough dust, which has a lot of mass, it probably could slow down spin in a closed circulation that comes off the African coast, but it seems that in most cases it is mainly prohibitive in allowing convection to develop as opposed to preventing vorticity.

Good to see you Pete. I'm always here year round. But yeah, learned something new. So if it beats the SAL, then all it has to do is beat the shear then, right?

[cycloneye]

8 AM EDT discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
19N42W TO 08N47W AND MOVING W-SW NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES
WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS ENGULFED BY SAL DRY AIR WITH SOME OF IT
SPREADING OVER THE ITS ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION.

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N48W TO 9N51W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 15N.

[ozonepete]

Btw, hey King A, good to see you back for hurricane season 2013. I just needed to clarify that, of course, if there's enough dust, which has a lot of mass, it probably could slow down spin in a closed circulation that comes off the African coast, but it seems that in most cases it is mainly prohibitive in allowing convection to develop as opposed to preventing vorticity.

Good to see you Pete. I'm always here year round. But yeah, learned something new. So if it beats the SAL, then all it has to do is beat the shear then, right?

Yeah, I'm the one who's not here year round, at least not yet. It looks like the wave is about to leave the SAL behind but I don't see how it can beat the shear. There is punishing shear just ahead of it. But shear of course can be great for creating strong thunderstorms/convection, just not the tall unsheared thunderstorms needed for tropical cyclone formation or maintenance. So I still expect convection will start to blow up tomorrow as the shear increases and the SAL influence wanes. Luckily (hopefully) it looks like most of the thunderstorms will stay north of the islands this time. The main point is I can't see this developing into a tropical cyclone in any way.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N53W TO 13N58W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 53W-56W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
THE WAVE AND 60W.

[Gustywind]

Right now we have numerous lightnings and moderate thunderstorms in Guadeloupe. The situation is deteriorating quickly but we "sing in the rain"...

[ozonepete]

I see it on the satellite loops. A big burst right over you. Wish I was there.

[ozonepete]

Of course we hope there won't be much over P.R. They've had too much rain from the last wave.

[cycloneye]

Of course we hope there won't be much over P.R. They've had too much rain from the last wave.

This was a 50 year historic event that the wave brought in less than 6 hours. Below is when it was at peak drenching the island. Hopefully,this upcoming wave does not bring excesive rains.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=rainfallrecord_0718

[cycloneye]

8 AM Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A
TILTED AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 13N64W AND MOVING NEAR 10
KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE LYING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND GRENADA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REDUCED TO
RAINSHOWERS COINCIDING WITH THE REGIONS OF HIGHER MOISTURE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GRENADA. A SAL OUTBREAK SPREADS ACROSS
THE ATLC TO JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING FURTHER CONVECTION AT THE
TIME.

[Gustywind]

I can tell you that last night was very electric in Guadeloupe. Impressive lightnings were making a nasty show! This twave was pretty similar to previous one on Wednesday, surely a little more stronger convectively. No reports of damages here, that's the good news

Given Meteo-France 6AM weather forecast, during the last 12 hours, the most important rainfall reached 50 to 60 millemeters on the north part of the island in Grande-Terre and in localities like Lametin, Sainte Rose and Deshaies.
Hopefully things calm down today and the is back and trying already to shine in spite of light haze.

Gustywind