Tropical Wave (Pouch 12L) E Atlantic - (Is Invest 98L)

[NDG]

Here is the tropical wave in Africa that the GFS and Canadian models develop in a few days south or SW of the CV Islands.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... e4de12.jpg

The cluster behind looks better than what you circled. IMO,that one may be it.

At first I thought so also, but when you watch the GFS link below it clearly shows the tropical wave that I circled being the one that starts developing and or getting better organized as early as Tuesday south of the CV Islands, the other tropical wave that you mentioned by then it is still well inland in Africa.

Loop this link

[cycloneye]

What Dr Jeff Masters said this Saturday morning about this.

Saturday morning's 06Z run of the GFS model predicted that a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Monday will develop later in the week. None of the other reliable models develop this wave, though the unreliable Canadian (CMC) model also suggests that the wave could develop.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

I see that thee GFS is showing a possible system next week (06z)

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the 12zGFS shows some development of this by Monday morning

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[cycloneye]

Maybe a little overdone but here is 12z GFS at 66 hours.I will put the timeframes in this post to not make one post for every hour.



90 hours.



120 hours.



132 hours.



138 hours.



162 hours.



174 hours.



192 hours. Over Puerto Rico,yeah

[Alyono]

smacks right into Hispañiola this run

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,that is it for me until 192 hours. Hispaniola pretty much kills it this run.

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow: Ok folks,that is it for me until 192 hours. Hispaniola pretty much kills it this run.

Nope, ends up in the Gulf

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Ok folks,that is it for me until 192 hours. Hispaniola pretty much kills it this run.

Nope, ends up in the Gulf

Yeah,I saw the long range and comes alive again.

['CaneFreak]

If there were any questions about the potential strength of the ridging in the West Atlantic late in the period, those were answered in this run...sheesh

[Alyono]

flipped from New England to the US/Mexico Border

[gatorcane]

How about how the 12Z shows a completely different long-wave pattern over the subtropical northern Atlantic and North America this run sending this system very far west through the Caribbean islands and then into the Gulf.

The 00Z CMC also shows this system getting far west also. The 12Z CMC is rolling so let's see what it does with this.

MiamiensisWx - good call on creating this thread several days ago. it certainly seems like a system may be materializing especially since the GFS shows the low near the Cape Verde islands in only a few days from now.

[Stormlover2012]

Gfs has south texas/Mexico lol

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC shows the low but not nearly as bullish as the 00Z CMC or 12Z GFS. Here we are at 138 hours from now with a sharp wave signature shown east of the islands. Let's see what the rest of the run does with this wave:

[cycloneye]

Here is what Dr Masters said about CMC-GEM.

Saturday morning's 06Z run of the GFS model predicted that a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Monday will develop later in the week. None of the other reliable models develop this wave, though the unreliable Canadian (CMC) model also suggests that the wave could develop.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC shows the African wave as a weak low passing through NE Leewards:

[Alyono]

12Z CMC shows nothing

I wonder if the GFS is having parameterization issues. Something this close to developing should also be seen by the CMC if it were real.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC shows nothing

I wonder if the GFS is having parameterization issues. Something this close to developing should also be seen by the CMC if it were real.

Not exactly nothing, there is a weak low there / strong tropical wave but not nearly as organized as the GFS shows.

[Alyono]

I'd say Masters needs to look at the GFS skill as of late before calling it a reliable model.

It has been developing several CV systems this month. Of course, none formed. The one that formed was NOT forecast to develop by the GFS

[Riptide]

I'd say Masters needs to look at the GFS skill as of late before calling it a reliable model.

It has been developing several CV systems this month. Of course, none formed. The one that formed was NOT forecast to develop by the GFS

I don't recall as much development, GFS has not showed a classic long-tracking Cape Verde TC since last year and Chantal surprised the euro. It's the only game in town and appears to have modest possibilities.