excerpts from NHC Report on Katrina in 2005:
The complex genesis of Katrina involved the interaction of a tropical wave, the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten, and an upper tropospheric trough. This trough, located over the western Atlantic and the Bahamas, produced strong westerly shear across Tropical Depression Ten, causing it to degenerate on 14 August approximately 825 n mi east of Barbados. A tropical wave, which departed the west coast of Africa on 11 August, moved through the Leeward Islands and merged with the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on 19 August and produced a large area of showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico. This activity continued to move slowly northwestward, passing north of Hispaniola and then consolidating just east of the Turks and Caicos during the afternoon of 22 August. The upper tropospheric trough weakened as it moved westward toward Florida, and the shear relaxed enough to allow the system to develop into a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 23 August over the southeastern Bahamas about 175 n mi southeast of Nassau.
excerpts from NHC Report on Rita in 2005:
Rita originated from a complex interaction between a tropical wave and the remnants of a cold front. The tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on 7 September. It failed to produce much deep convection as it traversed the tropical Atlantic during 8-12 September. Convection briefly consolidated along the axis of the tropical wave late on 13 September about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, but it soon diminished again. Accompanied by very limited convection, the tropical wave moved westward across the Leeward Islands on 16 September and then merged with the surface trough north of Puerto Rico early on 17 September.A continued gradual increase in organization was aided by just enough relaxation of vertical shear, as a middle- to upper-tropospheric low that had been positioned over the western Atlantic shifted westward over Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A tropical depression is estimated to have formed by 0000 UTC 18 September approximately 70 n mi east of Grand Turk in the Turks and Caicos.
ROCK wrote:I would be careful what we wish for...the SAL can work to shut down long trackers but the waves themselves could develope closer to home. That's what I am concerned with as we get into August more....
We could appreciate the early stage of developpement of each potential twave.
