Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET back on Thu. depicted this broad area of low pressure quite well.

Saved image from that run below:

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N25W TO 13N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE BASE OF THE WAVE HAS AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 13N27W. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM
08N-22N BETWEEN 15W-26W. CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N-
22N BETWEEN 13W-30W TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

[cycloneye]

Wave has maintained the circulation for more than 24 hours as you saw in last nights pass but convection is not plenty at this time. Tonight's OSCAT pass was made at 9:40 PM EDT.

[Hurricaneman]

with the current organization trend I would not be surprised if they 10% lemon it tomorrow morning

as for further development this could develop more than modeled especially if it keeps the anticyclone it has moving in tandem with it which I do expect but I can't give any track details due to it being really far out but I have a feeling that this is going to be a close call especially with the ridging and it does indeed need to be monitored in case

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[cycloneye]

8 AM discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
12N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N33W 16N41W 10N42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
26W AND 40W.

[CrazyC83]

I think this is more of a SAL-cleaner than anything. Anything behind it would have a free alley to develop...

But yes, that circulation looks good. Just needs convection.

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 18N31W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N32W.
IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALSO EXTENDS ALONG
32W NORTHWARD TO NEAR 20N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 07N-19N BETWEEN 24W-35W.
CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 28W-38W.

[colbroe]

Looks like it is trying to get its act together,with shower activity on the increase

[hurricanehunter69]

Looks like it is trying to get its act together,with shower activity on the increase

Yep, looks like an increase in shower activity to me too. Question is, will it continue? The system seems to be drawing up convection from the ITCZ. It's a good sized circulation and I'd bet on it having a shot down the road. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

[beoumont]

2 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 18N31W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N32W.
IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALSO EXTENDS ALONG
32W NORTHWARD TO NEAR 20N. .

That pretty much describes what we have, a slowly turning mostly mid-level cloud mass; what I have always called a SWIRLAROO... They look "potent" because of the massive turning, but almost never develop, and just slowly unwind.

Once in a great while they do develop, though. The one that stands out in my mind is Elena, 1985. It was one of these Swirlatoos, that moved 30+ mph out of Africa and across the Atlantic at that speed, then finally started to convect over Hispaniola, and became a major hurricane in the Gulf; making final landfall in a place that rarely sees hurricanes; Gulfport / Biloxi, MS.

Can anyone recall and point out any other Swirlaroos that developed eventually.

[cycloneye]

None of the models develop this but you never know as is August.

[CrazyC83]

It reminds me of a few out-of-nowhere storms last year - Michael most notably, had NO model support, the NHC and most of us wrote it off yet became a major hurricane...

[ozonepete]

Actually, the 12Z Navgem now keeps it through next week, albeit not very strong and it moves really slowly. But since it's starting to pop some convection and conditions aren't that bad out there, I'm now a little more interested. Let's see if the 00Z GFS stasts doing something with it...

[abajan]

Is the convection, indicated below, part of 20L? It seems to be growing:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Is the convection, indicated below, part of 20L? It seems to be growing:

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/635/l42h.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Yes,is part of the big wave envelope.Let's see if it get more thunderstorms.

[abajan]

... Can anyone recall and point out any other Swirlaroos that developed eventually.

Would Flora qualify as having developed from a swirlaroo?

[SFLcane]

development possible across the eastern atl during the next week or two.

[Gustywind]

8 PM discussion.



A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 19N33W TO 11N33W WHICH
IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW
THAT FOR THE MOST PART THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...METEOSAT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
MINIMAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN
27W-36W.

[ninel conde]

8 PM discussion.



A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 19N33W TO 11N33W WHICH
IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW
THAT FOR THE MOST PART THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...METEOSAT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
MINIMAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN
27W-36W.

yea, there appears to be alot of dry air for it to deal with.

[gatorcane]

Some convection is popping tonight but overall the environmental conditions are just not there for this system.

The 18Z GFS doesn't think the conditions will improve for Cape Verde development for quite sometime, may need to wait until towards the end of this month now, so could see a slow start to the Cape Verde season.