Tropical Wave in BOC (Is Invest 99L)

[Pearl River]

Thanks NDG and ninel. Much appreciated.

[SFLcane]

ull's all over the place i just dont see how this would develope into anything significant.

Chaotic WV loop..

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

THE TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EAST PACIFIC WITH A 1009 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16N102W.
REMNANT CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 93W.

[NDG]

Though not shown on the UW/CIMSS site I see a nice mid level vorticity east of Cozumel but nothing reflected at the surface yet, nothing but SE winds underneath it, pressures are still somewhat high but falling slowly.

[ROCK]

I wouldnt be to sure about a wnw past into MX with this. the suspect MLC is near Cozumel but when you have small / slow organizing systems center relocations are the norm. The 6Z NAVGEM pulls this north out of the BOC.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cycloneye]

Tentative recon for Thursday.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20.0N 94.5W AT 05/1730Z.

[Rgv20]

Definitely some good spin near Cozumel NDG

[Alyono]

the wave itself appears over the central Yucatan. makes sense due to the shear currently affecting it

[MGC]

Looks to me that the convection is due to the wave interacting with the ULL. Might get something spin up once it moves away from the Yucatan.....MGC

[PTrackerLA]

Will we get any moisture from this on the northern gulf coast? I've only had about 1 decent rainfall in the past 3-4 weeks here.

[Dean4Storms]

MLC shows up nicely east of the Yucatan moving NW.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMStu04312.jpg

[Dean4Storms]

Something like this in that area in another few weeks and it would likely be north or NE bound with the deeper CONUS troughs getting active.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS seems splits the vorticity.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ROCK]

MLC now over the northern tip of Yucatan...moving NW into GOM. I guess because models dont see it this will never be an invest. Sure looks decent right now for a non-invest...

[wxman57]

MLC shows up nicely east of the Yucatan moving NW.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMStu04312.jpg

I was going to point out the nice rotation near Cozumel/Cancun. Don't see anything in the Bay of Campeche.

[JtSmarts]

If the rotation near Cancun was to develop, do we have any idea of where it would move? I'm guessing mid-coast of Mexico??

[perk]

MLC shows up nicely east of the Yucatan moving NW.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMStu04312.jpg

I was going to point out the nice rotation near Cozumel/Cancun. Don't see anything in the Bay of Campeche.

Wxman57 where might this system end up going if it develops

[caneman]

Why is this system not an invest?

[ninel conde]

rather shocked its not an invest. rapid development possible the further south it stays.