Disturbed weather in Yucatan,moves to SW GOM (Is Invest 95L)

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM moves the NW Caribbean disturbance over the Yucatan and then NW into the GOM where a broad low develops then heads north:

144 hours:

[ninel conde]

lots of convection gathering in the gom and west carib.

[TheStormExpert]

Are the models developing the area the NHC is currently mentioning or is it something else for next weekend, I'm confused?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is the convection over Florida and the Bahamas related to this?

[Hurricaneman]

If the 12zEuro came to pass this would be a big problem for areas that got hit by Sandy maybe even farther north, but as it is known that a 10 day model depiction is usually full of errors and need to be taken with a grain of salt, but with the possibility of a -AO and -NAO its a possible outcome

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[TheStormExpert]

Has there ever been a time when the mid-atlantic/northeast get hit with a Hurricane or TC three years in a row?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

These must be two different systems being talked about here in this one thread. The convection currently out there in the nw Carib is currently forecast to move west or WNW to the sw gulf early next week per the latest nhc discussion.

And the storm the models, gfs and euro, are currently showing develops in the same area of thr nw carib but immediately moves ene across the se gulf into the Atlantic.

Is there something the mods can do with this thread to clear things up?

[Blown Away]

I've been away for a few days, is this the area some of the long range models have moving out of the Caribbean near SFL and through the Bahamas?

[gatorcane]

These must be two different systems being talked about here in this one thread. The convection currently out there in the nw Carib is currently forecast to move west or WNW to the sw gulf early next week per the latest nhc discussion.

And the storm the models, gfs and euro, are currently showing develops in the same area of thr nw carib but immediately moves ene across the se gulf into the Atlantic.

Is there something the mods can do with this thread to clear things up?

Yeah technically there should be two threads:

1. Possible Development in the SW Gulf of Mexico This Week
2. Possible Development in the NW Caribbean This Coming Weekend or Early Next Week.

[cycloneye]

Note= About having two threads for different areas,is better to stick with this one and as things evolve during this week we will change the title accordingly to include where the area of interest will be as NHC updates the area to watch and the %. For example,if this area moves into the SW GOM,the title will include SW GOM.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This area of disturbed weather should interact with the monsoon circulation that Ingrid and Manuel are embedded in. The Bay of Campeche should become unstable in a few days and we may get yet another tropical cyclone in the region. The difference this time is that very pronounced troughing appears to be forecast over the central/eastern United States. This should draw whatever develops out of the southwestern Gulf and east-northeast towards Florida. It'll probably transition into an extratropical cyclone as it interacts with the mid-latitude feature, very similar to Josephine of 1996. The ECMWF is suggesting a Sandy-like pattern at the end of its run, with blocking over the Maritimes and a digging negatively-tilted trough over the Great Lakes with the hybrid a bit offshore the NC coastline.

I just want a nice-looking hurricane sometime soon. It is September 15 after all.

[LaBreeze]

These must be two different systems being talked about here in this one thread. The convection currently out there in the nw Carib is currently forecast to move west or WNW to the sw gulf early next week per the latest nhc discussion.

And the storm the models, gfs and euro, are currently showing develops in the same area of thr nw carib but immediately moves ene across the se gulf into the Atlantic.

Is there something the mods can do with this thread to clear things up?

[gatorcane]

The 00Z NAM has a broad low in the BOC at 84 hours that is stationary:

[ROCK]

that is either the guts of Ingrid or what is in the NW carib now....the ULL needs to move out of the way at some point...

[ronjon]

NWS Tampa Bay AFD this morning:

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND STALLS OUT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY. OF NOTE...THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TO DIFFERING DEGREES ALL SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THESE TRENDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

[Hurricane Alexis]

From the Miami AFD:

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS INTERESTING ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW AS
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD LOW OR TROUGH DEVELOPING. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS TOOK A LOW NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTH FL AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIED IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN SATES.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AMPLIFY
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MUCH AND LEAVE LOW PRESSURE OR A BROAD
TROUGH HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTH FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. IT IS
WAY TOO SOON TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN ONE SCENARIO, BUT IT`S
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THIS PATTERN WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE COPIOUS RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OR WITHOUT ANY
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

[cycloneye]

From the 8 am (Eastern) NHC tropical outlook:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Hurricane Alexis]

We've had big rain amounts here in south florida from this disturbance, and if you look at radar, a few more inches are on they're way.





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[floridasun78]

here by mia airport we got good rain round 5am

[jlauderdal]

This area of disturbed weather should interact with the monsoon circulation that Ingrid and Manuel are embedded in. The Bay of Campeche should become unstable in a few days and we may get yet another tropical cyclone in the region. The difference this time is that very pronounced troughing appears to be forecast over the central/eastern United States. This should draw whatever develops out of the southwestern Gulf and east-northeast towards Florida. It'll probably transition into an extratropical cyclone as it interacts with the mid-latitude feature, very similar to Josephine of 1996. The ECMWF is suggesting a Sandy-like pattern at the end of its run, with blocking over the Maritimes and a digging negatively-tilted trough over the Great Lakes with the hybrid a bit offshore the NC coastline.

I just want a nice-looking hurricane sometime soon. It is September 15 after all.

will send a nice looking hurricane your way..