2014 hurricane season forecasts

[wxman57]

I'm going with 10/4/1.

That matches my thinking. My coworker is pointing to 1982 (6/2/1), 1986 (6/4/0), 1991 (8/4/2) and 2002 (12/4/2) as analogs, with 2002 the best analog. Everything I see points to a more hostile environment than normal this season.

[Ntxw]

I'm going with 10/4/1.

That matches my thinking. My coworker is pointing to 1982 (6/2/1), 1986 (6/4/0), 1991 (8/4/2) and 2002 (12/4/2) as analogs, with 2002 the best analog. Everything I see points to a more hostile environment than normal this season.

Is this the long range guy you speak of often in winter? His analogs are all moderate to strong El Ninos.

[wxman57]

I'm going with 10/4/1.

That matches my thinking. My coworker is pointing to 1982 (6/2/1), 1986 (6/4/0), 1991 (8/4/2) and 2002 (12/4/2) as analogs, with 2002 the best analog. Everything I see points to a more hostile environment than normal this season.

Is this the long range guy you speak of often in winter? His analogs are all moderate to strong El Ninos.

Yes. El Nino at -.7 to -1.1 for this season. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (cool Arabian Sea/near Somalia). Higher-than-normal pressures in deep tropics. Cooler SSTs in MDR. All signals point to diminished activity over normal. That doesn't mean no impacts, however. Seasons like 1957, 1965, 1983 and 1992 had well below normal activity (Audrey, Betsy, Alicia and Andrew). Bottom line is that you should prepare for each season the same, no matter what is forecast.

[stephen23]

My thinking is this. The only seasons since 1950 that have been El Nino PDO+ AMO+ during hurricane season were 1953 (14-6-4), 1957 (8-3-2), 1997 (8-3-1), 2004 (15-9-6). 2002 was a little of both. It started out the hurricane season as El Nino PDO- AMO- through end of July. There was only one named storm up until end of July. By August 2002 had changed to El Nino PDO+ AMO+ and all other storms formed during this time between August-Sept. So in this phase it went 11-4-2. Also something to note is all the years that have had El Nino PDO+ AMO+ have all had a hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast. My predictions are the average of all years listed above at 11-5-3. Will go further and predict a hurricane making landfall on the gulf coast. If we were to stay in neutral ENSO with PDO+ AMO+ then the average of named storms goes up to 14-7-4.

[Ntxw]

My thinking is this. The only seasons since 1950 that have been El Nino PDO+ AMO+ during hurricane season were 1953 (14-6-4), 1957 (8-3-2), 1997 (8-3-1), 2004 (15-9-6). 2002 was a little of both. It started out the hurricane season as El Nino PDO- AMO- through end of July. There was only one named storm up until end of July. By August 2002 had changed to El Nino PDO+ AMO+ and all other storms formed during this time between August-Sept. So in this phase it went 11-4-2. Also something to note is all the years that have had El Nino PDO+ AMO+ have all had a hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast. My predictions are the average of all years listed above at 11-5-3. Will go further and predict a hurricane making landfall on the gulf coast. If we were to stay in neutral ENSO with PDO+ AMO+ then the average of named storms goes up to 14-7-4.

One question, why are you using +PDO/+AMO? A couple of positive does not claim a +PDO period as that is a multi-year index. If you are assuming the recent 2 +PDO readings then you should also assume the -AMO readings (likely two months as well as Feb pretty much repeated January). Unless this is all your assumption the +AMO will return and +PDO will remain due to a strong Nino (which it will take to keep the +PDO) as even the 1972 super Nino barely kept it positive during -PDO era as we are in.

Which If I had to pick, I would definitely take 1972 as fit for this season. But that is my personal opinion.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's interesting to note the CFS' depiction of below-average wind shear across most of the Atlantic during the year despite the El Nino.

[Ntxw]

Ran into this information while searching through ENSO re-analysis. I need some people who have knowledge on this clarify because if this is true, there has been a lot of incorrect information regarding the matter. Sorry if it's derailing the thread, but I need some input.

Here's something shocking that no one apparently has said anything about. Everyone says 1992 (Andrew) was during El Nino so I looked at the sub-surface then ONI. This is not correct, at least during the Hurricane season. JJA was neutral reading all the way to 1994 and there was NO sub-surface warm pool!!! In fact the only reasoning is that the El Nino of 1991-1992 was so strong it extended into spring of 1992 but by June it ended. There was no El Nino during hurricane Andrew!

Per ONI 1992: JJA = 0.3C, JAS = 0.0C

And during heart of the season ASO = -0.2C!

To be declared an El Nino there must be 5 consecutive trimonthlies overlapped with no disruptions, clearly there was not during Andrew 1992.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It'll be interesting to see how much activity we get in the eastern Atlantic this season. An El Nino (higher shear) would argue for less activity, but it looks like we'll see a negative IOD and cool Gulf of Guinea once again this season--both promote a healthy wave train. Several TS Oscar 13s in store? As an added note, even if the waves don't develop far out, it's always possible they form closer to the coast.

[Alyono]

It's interesting to note the CFS' depiction of below-average wind shear across most of the Atlantic during the year despite the El Nino.

that's well above average shear south of 15N. That pattern would kill any waves that come across, only allowing for mid lat development

[stephen23]

It does appear that the CFS is forecasting average to below average wind shear for most of the Caribbean, GOM, and East coast. Is this normal for Nino Years? The reason I ask is if you look back at past El Nino years back to 1950, while total number of named storms are below average during El Nino years, there also seems to be an increase in landfall Gulf coast hurricanes. Looking back at all years there were El Nino conditions for hurricane season, 80% of all years with El Nino values during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf coast hurricane. The only years without one were 1951, 1982, and 2009. That is a lot higher odds then years that were La Nina or neutral. Now looking at the CFS forecasting PDO+ readings through hurricane season then the odds go up a little more. Without taking in consideration AMO, years with El Nino/PDO+ readings during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 83% of the time. Out of those years with landfall hurricane 50% of those years had a Maj landfall hurricane in the US. Years with El Nino/PDO- reading during hurricane have only had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 67% of the time and a major hurricane landfall 33% of the time. Looking more at the CFS it looks like the CFS is also predicting the Atlantic to warm back up to average and above average sst in all the Atlantic except for at the equator. This would put us back into AMO+ readings by hurricane season. So more looking into this years that were El Nino/PDO+/AMO+ during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 86% of the time. Years with El Nino/PDO+/AMO- reading during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 80% of the time. Years with El Nino/PDO-/AMO+ readings during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 0% of the time. This set up has only happened on time in 1951. Years with El Nino/PDO-/AMO- have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 100% of the time. This set up has only happened two times in 1963, and 1969.

So, what I am asking is. Even though we all know that El Nino years produce fewer named storms for the most part, could El Nino years actually increase the chance of a Gulf Coast strike? If so, could it be due to where the shear is located actually decreasing the shear in Caribbean, GOM, and East Coast regions?

[stephen23]

It does appear that the CFS is forecasting average to below average wind shear for most of the Caribbean, GOM, and East coast. Is this normal for Nino Years? The reason I ask is if you look back at past El Nino years back to 1950, while total number of named storms are below average during El Nino years, there also seems to be an increase in landfall Gulf coast hurricanes. Looking back at all years there were El Nino conditions for hurricane season, 80% of all years with El Nino values during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf coast hurricane. The only years without one were 1951, 1982, and 2009. That is a lot higher odds then years that were La Nina or neutral. Now looking at the CFS forecasting PDO+ readings through hurricane season then the odds go up a little more. Without taking in consideration AMO, years with El Nino/PDO+ readings during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 83% of the time. Out of those years with landfall hurricane 50% of those years had a Maj landfall hurricane in the US. Years with El Nino/PDO- reading during hurricane have only had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 67% of the time and a major hurricane landfall 33% of the time. Looking more at the CFS it looks like the CFS is also predicting the Atlantic to warm back up to average and above average sst in all the Atlantic except for at the equator. This would put us back into AMO+ readings by hurricane season. So more looking into this years that were El Nino/PDO+/AMO+ during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 86% of the time. Years with El Nino/PDO+/AMO- reading during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 80% of the time. Years with El Nino/PDO-/AMO+ readings during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 0% of the time. This set up has only happened on time in 1951. Years with El Nino/PDO-/AMO- have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 100% of the time. This set up has only happened two times in 1963, and 1969.

So, what I am asking is. Even though we all know that El Nino years produce fewer named storms for the most part, could El Nino years actually increase the chance of a Gulf Coast strike? If so, could it be due to where the shear is located actually decreasing the shear in Caribbean, GOM, and East Coast regions?

Just to show how many more times we have a landfall Gulf Coast hurricanes during El Nino years...

% of years with landfall Gulf Coast landfall with ENSO values during hurricane season:
El Nino= 80%
La Nina=56%
Neutral=48%

Completely opposite for east Coast Landfall hurricanes

% of years with landfall East Coast landfall with ENSO values during hurricane season:
El Nino=47%
La Nina=50%
Neutral=52%

And then combined U.S. landfall with ENSO values during hurricane season:
El Nino=80%
La Nina=69%
Neutral=71%

[Alyono]

It does appear that the CFS is forecasting average to below average wind shear for most of the Caribbean, GOM, and East coast. Is this normal for Nino Years? The reason I ask is if you look back at past El Nino years back to 1950, while total number of named storms are below average during El Nino years, there also seems to be an increase in landfall Gulf coast hurricanes. Looking back at all years there were El Nino conditions for hurricane season, 80% of all years with El Nino values during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf coast hurricane. The only years without one were 1951, 1982, and 2009. That is a lot higher odds then years that were La Nina or neutral. Now looking at the CFS forecasting PDO+ readings through hurricane season then the odds go up a little more. Without taking in consideration AMO, years with El Nino/PDO+ readings during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 83% of the time. Out of those years with landfall hurricane 50% of those years had a Maj landfall hurricane in the US. Years with El Nino/PDO- reading during hurricane have only had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 67% of the time and a major hurricane landfall 33% of the time. Looking more at the CFS it looks like the CFS is also predicting the Atlantic to warm back up to average and above average sst in all the Atlantic except for at the equator. This would put us back into AMO+ readings by hurricane season. So more looking into this years that were El Nino/PDO+/AMO+ during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 86% of the time. Years with El Nino/PDO+/AMO- reading during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 80% of the time. Years with El Nino/PDO-/AMO+ readings during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 0% of the time. This set up has only happened on time in 1951. Years with El Nino/PDO-/AMO- have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 100% of the time. This set up has only happened two times in 1963, and 1969.

So, what I am asking is. Even though we all know that El Nino years produce fewer named storms for the most part, could El Nino years actually increase the chance of a Gulf Coast strike? If so, could it be due to where the shear is located actually decreasing the shear in Caribbean, GOM, and East Coast regions?

The CFS is showing HIGHER shear for the Caribbean. The reds are higher and they cover the entire Caribbean. It is the SUBTROPICS that have lower shear, not the deep tropics, except maybe for the area immediately west of the Coast of Africa

[stephen23]

It does appear that the CFS is forecasting average to below average wind shear for most of the Caribbean, GOM, and East coast. Is this normal for Nino Years? The reason I ask is if you look back at past El Nino years back to 1950, while total number of named storms are below average during El Nino years, there also seems to be an increase in landfall Gulf coast hurricanes. Looking back at all years there were El Nino conditions for hurricane season, 80% of all years with El Nino values during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf coast hurricane. The only years without one were 1951, 1982, and 2009. That is a lot higher odds then years that were La Nina or neutral. Now looking at the CFS forecasting PDO+ readings through hurricane season then the odds go up a little more. Without taking in consideration AMO, years with El Nino/PDO+ readings during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 83% of the time. Out of those years with landfall hurricane 50% of those years had a Maj landfall hurricane in the US. Years with El Nino/PDO- reading during hurricane have only had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 67% of the time and a major hurricane landfall 33% of the time. Looking more at the CFS it looks like the CFS is also predicting the Atlantic to warm back up to average and above average sst in all the Atlantic except for at the equator. This would put us back into AMO+ readings by hurricane season. So more looking into this years that were El Nino/PDO+/AMO+ during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 86% of the time. Years with El Nino/PDO+/AMO- reading during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 80% of the time. Years with El Nino/PDO-/AMO+ readings during hurricane season have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 0% of the time. This set up has only happened on time in 1951. Years with El Nino/PDO-/AMO- have had a landfall Gulf Coast hurricane 100% of the time. This set up has only happened two times in 1963, and 1969.

So, what I am asking is. Even though we all know that El Nino years produce fewer named storms for the most part, could El Nino years actually increase the chance of a Gulf Coast strike? If so, could it be due to where the shear is located actually decreasing the shear in Caribbean, GOM, and East Coast regions?

The CFS is showing HIGHER shear for the Caribbean. The reds are higher and they cover the entire Caribbean. It is the SUBTROPICS that have lower shear, not the deep tropics, except maybe for the area immediately west of the Coast of Africa

O.K. I see what your talking about for Sept through end of year. I was looking at July and August where CFS is showing below average wind shear for entire Caribbean for July and below average wind shear for East Caribbean in August with average to below average wind shear for 75% of all the MDR, all of the GOM, and East Coast.

[wxman57]

Is this the same CFS that predicted the very warm winter east of the Rockies?

[TheStormExpert]

Also notice how it shows higher than average wind shear for at least 80-90% of the E. Pacific.

[Bocadude85]

Is this the same CFS that predicted the very warm winter east of the Rockies?

It has been a very warm winter down here in South Florida

[Ntxw]

As many eyes are watching the Pacific, I decided to do some numbers crunching for ACE regarding El Nino. Perhaps it may give some insight as to what might occur when looking at total energy output of a season.


Using this graphic posted by our friend Cycloneye as guidance

http://i58.tinypic.com/aewapw.jpg

Average Atlantic ACE a season: 93.2 units

Average ACE during El Nino: 72 units; equates to in general below average
_______________________________________________________________________

Breaking down between the intensities:
Weak El Nino; 1951, 1976, 1977, 1994, 2004, 2006
Average ACE: 96.5 units; equates to in general near average to slightly above

Moderate El Nino: 1963, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2009
Average ACE: 62 units; equates to below average

Strong El Nino: 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1997
Average ACE: 53 units; equates to well below average

Super El Nino or arguably +2C or the big 3; 1972, 1982, 1997
Average ACE: 32 units; equates to bottom tier top 15 quiet seasons



Disclaimer: All assuming an El Nino does play out by ASO. Does not assume any individual storms or impacts. For any land-falling statistics refer to Stephen23's great work

[CFLHurricane]

I'm think we'll have a slightly below normal year since anything as slow as last year again would be the anomaly.

[Hurricane Jed]

I'm going to hold off til April or May on any predictions. I want to see how things develop with this likely El Nino.

[Ntxw]

AMO had another negative reading at -0.020 however it was a little higher than last month. This would be back to back months.