When will the first named storm form in N Atlantic basin?

[angelwing]

Aw well, there's always next year

[Hurricaneman]

Friday, may not be far off

[SeGaBob]

I bet the people that voted June 1-10 are rooting for the system that's currently being watched.

(I chose June 11-20 so I might bust on that guess.)

[Ntxw]

In about a week 3/4 voters will be knocked out of contention. Will we get a last minute hit? Majority voted for this week.

[TheStormExpert]

I voted for July 21-31 which would be about a month from now. I may have a chance since IMO I think this year will be a late start like 2009 for instance. At the very least a storm may form in late July but something tells me it could be later, maybe the first half of August.

Basically I'm still sold on what I said here two months ago.

[CaliforniaResident]

Who thinks it will pull another 1992 when the first named storm doesn't come til late August but it turns out to be a major one quickly? Hopefully, unlike Andrew, it won't strike landfall as a major.

[TheStormExpert]

Who thinks it will pull another 1992 when the first named storm doesn't come til late August but it turns out to be a major one quickly? Hopefully, unlike Andrew, it won't strike landfall as a major.

Not saying it could not happen, but I've noticed that storms like Andrew (where one day they look anything but promising and the next day they are major monster storms) have become less common over the past two decades. Of course this is just my opinion and observations from looking back in history but back in the day these surprise disastrous storms seemed to happen much more frequently and were more common.

[Kalrany]

Who thinks it will pull another 1992 when the first named storm doesn't come til late August but it turns out to be a major one quickly? Hopefully, unlike Andrew, it won't strike landfall as a major.

Not saying it could not happen, but I've noticed that storms like Andrew (where one day they look anything but promising and the next day they are major monster storms) have become less common over the past two decades. Of course this is just my opinion and observations from looking back in history but back in the day these surprise disastrous storms seemed to happen much more frequently and were more common.

Is it possible that the information gathering, as well as forecasting, has improved enough to account for that?

[tropicwatch]

July 1-10

[SouthFloridian92]

Leaning towards mid August now.

[WeatherGuesser]

In about a week 3/4 voters will be knocked out of contention. Will we get a last minute hit? Majority voted for this week.

Over 50% have already missed, and missed big. Not only no named storms so far, not even a numbered TD. Has there even been an official Invest?

[SeGaBob]

Yes we had Invest 90L a couple of weeks ago... It moved into Mexico before it had time to develop. NHC just about upgraded it to a TD though.

[tropicwatch]

How long has it been since we went the entire month of June without a named storm in the Atlantic Basin?

[TheStormExpert]

How long has it been since we went the entire month of June without a named storm in the Atlantic Basin?

Last time was 2009, and before that was 2004, 2002, 2000 (Despite Two TD's).

[hurricanes1234]

I am still going with around mid-July. There is one area near the southeast coast which is more favourable, but conditions are rather atrocious overall, which makes me think June will end with 0 tropical cyclones, and at least the first week of July might see nothing as well. The first depression, I think, will peak as a weak system (40-45 mph tropical storm at most).

The preceding was NOT an official forecast. It is just my amateur opinion (see below).

[WeatherGuesser]

I move we keep the present pattern (no TDs) through July.

Don't imagine anybody will second.

[stauglocal]

My uneducated guess is the last part of July (7/21-7/31).

[wxman57]

I move we keep the present pattern (no TDs) through July.

Don't imagine anybody will second.

I second that. First storm the 2nd week of August.

[hurricanes1234]

This will probably be a record if the first storm forms in August. While conditions are quite hostile over much of the basin, and I don't expect them to improve in the short-term, I don't think July will pass without a storm. Conditions may become at least marginally favourable by then to have a weak depression or storm form, in my opinion. However, as for the first hurricane, I think we might see that in late August, or September again, because conditions will need to improve a whole lot for one to form. What are your thoughts?

Just my amateur opinion which is not based on any sound meteorological data.

[ninel conde]

I move we keep the present pattern (no TDs) through July.

Don't imagine anybody will second.

wouldnt be surprised at all. im not predicting this but if someone said nothing till sept and 2/0/0 overall i wouldnt laugh at them. one other point. off the se coast will only be marginally favorable if the fronts stop moving off the coast and i think as the season goes on the pattern will just become more winterlike.