Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[Nimbus]

Stole Gatorcanes loop sorry..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

Just as it reached -30 longitude. Looks as invest worthy as 94L did.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Stole Gatorcanes loop sorry..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

Just as it reached -30 longitude. Looks as invest worthy as 94L did.

Is it just me,mor does it look like it's moving very slowly to the north? Maybe my eyes need to be checked.

[Alyono]

you may want to change your sig as there is NO Invest 94L currently and development chances are nowhere near 40% in 5 days. It also isn't official info as your signature states

[gatorcane]

To further support my thinking that the interaction of these pouches is giving the models problems, the 12Z GEM just out is now quite bullish on development but the 00Z run wasn't. The 00Z GEM ultimately dissipates pouch 17L but leaves pouch 18L around as a weak low much longer. The 12Z GEM develops pouch 17L and dissipates pouch 18L.

150 hours below:

[cycloneye]

But NHC doesn't bite.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[blp]

To further support my thinking that the interaction of these pouches is giving the models problems, the 12Z GEM just out is now quite bullish on development but the 00Z run wasn't. The 00Z GEM ultimately dissipates pouch 17L but leaves pouch 18L around as a weak low much longer. The 12Z GEM develops pouch 17L and dissipates pouch 18L.

150 hours below:
http://i58.tinypic.com/icsmwy.jpg[/img]

Gator you might be right. I was wondering the same thing. It looks like the steering in E. Atlantic is going to breakdown soon and cause pouch 17l to hang around for a while and the interaction with 18l does look to be complicating the model evolution. Not a surprise that the Euro is struggling as well since it does not do well with the evolution. Having the CMC onboard is a good sign that something may develop. I expect the 18z GFS to jump back in again as it continues to flip flop.

[gatorcane]

Significant change in the NAVGEM prediction with the 12Z now more quickly developing pouch 17L (by hour 120, though not strong) and it moves it more quickly westward with a large ridge to the north.

Here is the 120 hour position:


Here is the 180 hour position:

[Hurricaneman]

theres 2 schools of though for me on this one, its starting to look like 017L might absorb 018L is thats the case I believe this may have to be watched as it would be farther to the west than if the second though of 017L being absorbed into 018L which would most likely lead to little to no development and most likely an out to sea scenario so its going to be wait and see the next few days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N27W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W TO 7N27W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY INDICATE
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF THE LOW
CENTER...WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY LIMITED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 25W-
34W.

[Sanibel]

This one has much more convergence and circulation

It is coming into frame on the Central Atlantic visible loop.

[gatorcane]

tropical cyclone formation probability graphic, favoring Pouch 17L at the moment. Usually when I see those colors, the NHC has at least lemoned the area:

[floridasun78]

tropical cyclone formation probability graphic, favoring Pouch 17L at the moment. Usually when I see those colors, the NHC has at least lemoned the area:

http://i57.tinypic.com/ndo1nb.jpg

so now that been issue will nhc add it too outlook???

[blp]

The 12z ukmet shows what looks like 17l stalled then absorbing 18l. Definetly the models are picking up now on some type of development whether from 17l or 18l. We will see.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?lang=en&map=hnord&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM

[blp]

Sorry here is a better view looks like 17l weakens and then 18l takes over. Very complicated setup.

[Hurricaneman]

This and 018L combined could be lemoned some time later today to anytime tomorrow looking at both currently as I believe that 017L will be the winner as it already has a LLCC and may need to be watched farther down the line as we have no idea what the steering currents will be between now and next Saturday

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Andrew]

17L looks dry and unorganized, 18L is convective and tight. My bet is on 18L.

[tropicwatch]

17L has a nice circulation but the convection needs to build more within the circulation. It might be strong enough to survive and come out something like Bertha.

[Nimbus]

Maybe some of the models are advanced enough to handle the dry air situation.
Currently 17L is "rolling along" as a wave with storm relative motion pulling moisture up out of the ITCZ.

Not an easy call to say that will continue, but it could as long as any circulation stay south.
If P18L gets close enough to P17L it may force the 17L circulation further south near 10N.

On the other hand P18L might do better in the wetter environment left behind by a weakening P17L and completely overtake it.

[gatorcane]

I am not sure if it is pouch 17L or 18L but the latest 18Z GFS has a 1007MB low by day 5 and so far out through about 1 week is more bullish than 12Z. I am sure NHC is waiting for the GFS to come on board which it looks like it is - could see NHC lemon an area out there for the next TWO - model support appears to be growing:

132 hours:

[tropicwatch]

Ok, stupid question time. Where did the term "lemon" come from?