Tropical Wave off African Coast (Is Invest 95L)

[blp]

The 18z GFS has this basically in the same area for 180+ hrs before it moves Northwest. I don't know if we can start saying recurve when we don't even know which pouch will evolve.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The 18z GFS has this basically in the same area for 180+ hrs before it moves Northwest. I don't know if we can start saying recurve when we don't even know which pouch will evolve.

It then has ot do a loop in the Atlantic.

I think the GFS had a little too much catnip personally. These waves are moving. They are not slowing down on visible imagery.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18z GFS has this basically in the same area for 180+ hrs before it moves Northwest. I don't know if we can start saying recurve when we don't even know which pouch will evolve.

It then has ot do a loop in the Atlantic.

I think the GFS had a little too much catnip personally. These waves are moving. They are not slowing down on visible imagery.

as I said in the 017L thread the GFS has a tendency to break down ridges too fast and over do it on troughs so IMO this will get much farther west than modeled on the GFS but how far west is the question

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

Still no bite by NHC.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Obviously the NHC is waiting for consistency from the GFS since it has been showing this or Pouch 018L developing every other run it seems. Also the GFS does not have a very good record so far this season especially after it's mischief it put us through at the beginning of the season. The only other models that show this or Pouch 018L developing at the moment are the NAVY model, CMC, and FIM (which is basically the same as the GFS). None of these three models are very reliable, and until the Euro shows at least something of interest I'm not buying into it that much but will keep an eye out on it.

[Alyono]

Satan will give free sleigh rides on Christmas before the ECMWF shows something in the MDR

[NDG]

You keep smacking the ECMWF for development in the deep tropics but it has done very well so far in the Atlantic's MDR compared to the GFS which keeps spinning ghost storms, lol.

[gatorcane]

This Pouch 18L is looking rather good this evening. I wonder too (as Cycloneye mentioned) if Pouch 17L will end up being the "sacrificial pouch" when all is said and done, clearing out some of the SAL and eventually getting sucked into this pouch? Seems that two pouches joining together may be required to beat the SAL right now.

[abajan]

:cry: Sadly it looks like it would recurve rather quickly if it developes. Ridging looks fairly decent over NE Atl, but if there is trough in central Atlantic its goodbye.

So how is that a sad thing? We don't want these systems (weak or strong) to affect land masses even Bermuda.

Let's not get into that debate this year.

[Riptide]

Yeah, the current observations and satellite trends are leaning towards developement, sometimes you need formulate your own analysis rather than use the models. Will be interesting to see if the GFS is flip-flopping again at 0z.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Satan will give free sleigh rides on Christmas before the ECMWF shows something in the MDR

Now THAT is funny!

[SFLcane]

Wouldn't be surprised if both of these waves are dried up tomorrow morning.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wouldn't be surprised if both of these waves are dried up tomorrow morning.

I bet you one year's worth of embarrassing signature that you're wrong.

[SFLcane]

Wouldn't be surprised if both of these waves are dried up tomorrow morning.

I bet you one year's worth of embarrassing signature that you're wrong.

If anything develops it will probably wait till 40-50w were conditions maybe a bit more favorable. Fact is the mdr is still covered in sinking air and we'll below average sst's.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wouldn't be surprised if both of these waves are dried up tomorrow morning.

I bet you one year's worth of embarrassing signature that you're wrong.

If anything develops it will probably wait till 40-50w were conditions maybe a bit more favorable. Fact is the mdr is still covered in sinking air and we'll below average sst's.

17L is suiciding the SAL, clearing a path for 18L. SSTs are not that far from average. As for the sinking air, there you are right.

[gatorcane]

As a reminder, here is a floater loop provided earlier in this thread for the most updated images for this pouch:

West Africa Floater

What I am seeing is possibly some convergence just off the coast, with some deep convection still building this evening which is a good sign. Also there is some good outflow on the southern side especially. Once it moves further away from Africa will be the real test though.

It looks like the last ASCAT pass missed this pouch though. Would have been nice to see what it is finding.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: You keep smacking the ECMWF for development in the deep tropics but it has done very well so far in the Atlantic's MDR compared to the GFS which keeps spinning ghost storms, lol.

If you paid attention to the WPAC where we also have monsoonal development, the EC has been HORRENDOUS. Just cannot handle this setup

[cycloneye]

Nice low level convergence and vorticity.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: You keep smacking the ECMWF for development in the deep tropics but it has done very well so far in the Atlantic's MDR compared to the GFS which keeps spinning ghost storms, lol.

If you paid attention to the WPAC where we also have monsoonal development, the EC has been HORRENDOUS. Just cannot handle this setup

The Euro sucks within the deep tropics, but it's worse in the WPAC. It's okay in the EPAC, and slightly below average in the ATL.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looking real nice on SAT. We will have to see what it looks like in 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

It has not moved much since the 18z surface analysis position to the 00z one as is still just off the coast.