Tropical Wave East of 90L emerging West Africa (is 91L)

[Nimbus]

Its further south than 90L coming off the coast what does the moisture content look like near 10n?

[gatorcane]

This wave is quite large - may be the strongest of the season (convection on west side of the wave axis is nearing the West African Coast tonight). Much bigger than 90L off to the NW

[Gustywind]

This wave is quite large - may be the strongest of the season (nearing the West African Coast tonight). Much bigger than 90L off to the NW

Very impressive sat appareance and much souther... hope that ridging is not too strong during it treks on the MDR.

[gatorcane]

Up to 50%:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the west coast of
Africa is associated with a strong tropical wave. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system early next week while it moves toward the west or west-
northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[SFLcane]

Yep could be a big one models recurve rather quickly.

[Hammy]

I'm guessing this could be tagged an invest as soon as the bulk of it gets over water.

[TheStormExpert]

Yep could be a big one models recurve rather quickly.

Looks to follow 90L's path in the short term.

[cycloneye]

Hi gatorcane. To let you know that I edited the title to add emerging West Africa.

[SFLcane]

I will put it out there and say this one becomes 1st major of the season in the open atl.

[cycloneye]

I will put it out there and say this one becomes 1st major of the season in the open atl.

You are not alone. I talked about this at the start of page 2.

It would be good that this develops into the only major of the season to track it in the middle of the ocean without affecting anyone. I am dreaming right?

[gatorcane]

Hi gatorcane. To let you know that I edited the title to add emerging West Africa.

OK I think it won't be too long before you edit this thread again as it becomes our next invest.

[beoumont]

I will put it out there and say this one becomes 1st major of the season in the open atl.

Somewhere between Bermuda and the Azores?

(I am fairly sure there are exceptions: but it is old saying that if a developing
disturbance emerges off Africa after September 4th, it won't make it across the Atlantic).

[SFLcane]

I will put it out there and say this one becomes 1st major of the season in the open atl.

Somewhere between Bermuda and the Azores?

Hey! why aren't you posting often?

Talk to me what you see down the line? Might we go this yr without a major..seriously

[gatorcane]

So looking at the GFS recurve around 45W prediction - that to me is highly suspect. I would lean more with the ECMWF instead of the GFS. For one thing the GFS is likely blowing this up way too quickly as I don't see it becoming a hurricane as fast.

Then take a look at the 500MB steering by the 18Z GFS at 168 hours. Between 168 hours and 192 hours the GFS does show the same west bend that the ECMWF shows with that ridge off to the NW, but as soon as the model moves to lower resolution after that, it suddenly breaks down that big ridge and allows the system to move north then suddenly builds back in a big ridge in it's wake. Something doesn't seem right with that.

[beoumont]

I will put it out there and say this one becomes 1st major of the season in the open atl.

Somewhere between Bermuda and the Azores?

Hey! why aren't you posting often?

Talk to me what you see down the line? Might we go this yr without a major..seriously

As you probably noticed, I consider the "real" hurricane season runs from August 20th - Oct. 20th. So, right now we are just beginning the 2nd quarter of the game. Patience and Chance are the most important factors of this yearly journey.

[TheStormExpert]

So looking at the GFS recurve around 45W prediction - that to me is highly suspect. I would lean more with the ECMWF instead of the GFS. For one thing the GFS is likely blowing this up way too quickly as I don't see it becoming a hurricane as fast.

Then take a look at the 500MB steering by the 18Z GFS at 168 hours. Between 168 hours and 192 hours the GFS does show the same west bend that the ECMWF shows with that ridge off to the NW, but as soon as the model moves to lower resolution after that, it suddenly breaks down that big ridge and allows the system to move north then suddenly builds back in a big ridge in it's wake. Something doesn't seem right with that.

http://i62.tinypic.com/qreom9.jpg

Well the NHC seems to be leaning more towards the GFS at least track wise. Their 5-day shaded region has it heading WNW to maybe even NW rather quickly.

[Hammy]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=16kmgwvp&storm_identifier=AL902014&starting_image=2014AL90_16KMGWVP_201409050615.GIF

dry air already seems to be getting pulled in from the north.

[gatorcane]

So looking at the GFS recurve around 45W prediction - that to me is highly suspect. I would lean more with the ECMWF instead of the GFS. For one thing the GFS is likely blowing this up way too quickly as I don't see it becoming a hurricane as fast.

Then take a look at the 500MB steering by the 18Z GFS at 168 hours. Between 168 hours and 192 hours the GFS does show the same west bend that the ECMWF shows with that ridge off to the NW, but as soon as the model moves to lower resolution after that, it suddenly breaks down that big ridge and allows the system to move north then suddenly builds back in a big ridge in it's wake. Something doesn't seem right with that.

http://i62.tinypic.com/qreom9.jpg

Well the NHC seems to be leaning more towards the GFS at least track wise. Their 5-day shaded region has it heading WNW to maybe even NW rather quickly.

If the turn to the west happens, it would happen beyond 5 days so you won't see it in the current NHC 5-day graphic.

[Hurricaneman]

This one seems to be passing the poof test, might be an invest by morning and I cant wait to see what the intensity models do with it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[weatherfanatic]

Hello, I have been a reader here for a while and finally decided to join. I read all the rules and bear with me if I make a mistake do not hesitate to let me know if I did something wrong.

Anyways what are you all thinking on this wave? I am finding it to look pretty impressive and is further south which as I understand can be a good thing for intensity purposes. I too think it will be a invest soon and I have been feeling every since models started picking up on it it would be our first major. I am by no means a professional, I just love all weather and hope I can make good input. I do not know if anyone believes in it or not but I do not think it is a coincidence that the farmers almanac calls for a landfall in the mid-atlantic around the time this storm starts nearing the US on the models. I also feel the quick turn north is suspect. It is rare but storms have traversed the higher atlantic all the way to the US. With ridge in place a further west track IS possible and I have been somewhat concerned about this one. Not to mention also that the GEFS ensembles all pretty much agree until the very late long range when they start to diverge. NHC giving it 50% is a sign that it def has more of a chance than the others, BUT I do see the SAL so I guess time will tell.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.