Possible Development in the BOC (Is Invest 93L)

[gatorcane]

NHC floater page shows "Trudy" under the "North Atlantic" section now. Latest loop showing Trudy's remnants continuing to get slowly pulled NE towards the BOC:

[gatorcane]

12z Navgem still develops this attached to the front and has the system heading out. 18z should follow the trend and leave it behind.

http://oi57.tinypic.com/o6bn84.jpg

18Z NAVGEM just ran. Shows development in the BOC by hour 90 and in the long-range moves it E over the Yucatan and into the NW Carib where it turns NE. It has shifted north some and is stronger:

Hour 90:


Hour 180:

[TheStormExpert]

With the NAO and AO forecasted to go positive, and the PNA forecasted to go negative within the next week or so, the Euro's forecast track and setup seems quite likely IMO.

[cycloneye]

NHC mentions it.

8 PM TWO:

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some
gradual development of the system will be possible after that time
while it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[floridasun78]

so nhc notice some Mobile show area forming in boc

[SFLcane]

Impressive circulation over land. Now being mentioned in the TWO. Hmm...

[SFLcane]

00z Nogaps and GEM...

[SFLcane]

[blp]

00z Euro a little stronger than previous. Showing a decent TS. It has trended stronger last three runs.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[jlauderdal]

8 AM TWO:

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

30% not bad considering the most reliable model so far isnt doing much with it...everyone from houston to hamilton(especially you, its your year) be on the lookout

bermuda of course(if you have been there you understand what I mean, if you havent then the deal is they dont take shortcuts, they handle their business with class and professionalism and they dont panic) they handled two hits in a week as you would expect, other counties including the great USA can learn alot about how its done correctly..it really comes down to the residents more than the government...anyway, lets see what happens with this sytem and who knows maybe we will have a comparison to make...our track record dealing with hurricanes isnt real good considering the amount of resources we pound at the issue

[gatorcane]

Shouldn't be too long before we have an invest so we can run more models on this system. Guidance has trended stronger overnight and while there is supposed to be a cold front digging south into Florida and the Gulf next week, it doesn't look as strong as the ECMWF runs were making it previously where the cold front pushed all the way south into the NW Caribbean and squashed anything that tried to develop in the Southern Gulf or NW Carib.

That did seem suspect to me for this time of year as it was showing a gigantic cutoff low that formed around the NE United States and remained stationary for several days in a blocking pattern like you would see in November of December. Latest global models show a much more progressive pattern as this cutoff low heads ENE more quickly which is more typical this time of year.

[NDG]

00z Euro a little stronger than previous. Showing a decent TS. It has trended stronger last three runs.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/2zz2qg0.jpg

I don't know if I would call it Tropical Storm, if you look at the same ECMWF's wind profile forecast it shows near 50 knot UL winds over the low pressure and H85 strongest winds well away from the surface low pressure center, this is more indicative of at least a subtropical system.

[Sanibel]

Makes sense that in this weird year we would have a freakish EPAC-GOM cross-over storm. We need the rain bad.

[jlauderdal]

Makes sense that in this weird year we would have a freakish EPAC-GOM cross-over storm. We need the rain bad.

sw florida needs to be on yellow alert

[tolakram]

Reminder to start using the s2k disclaimer when making predictions please. Putting it in your signature is allowed. Thanks.

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase in the BOC, saved loop below:

[gatorcane]

I am seeing an elongated broad spin in the area I circled in yellow below. Also included VIS floater loop (second graphic) so you can see what I am talking about:

[SFLcane]

Wet system for Florida appears in the cards..

[TheStormExpert]

With the way it's been so pleasant and dry here in S. FL (and all of FL in general) it is hard to believe that there is still some slight potential of a TC impact.