CYCLONE MIKE wrote:NDG wrote:MiamiensisWx wrote:South Florida has had above-average June temperatures many times in recent years, yet nothing happened other than warmer-than-average Gulf SSTs. There really isn't any correlation between surface land temperatures and Atlantic activity.
Except that this year the atmosphere over the GOM is different than the last few years, over all so far this year the shear has been running below average and most important instability has been much higher than the last few years.
I'm not so sure about that. Shear across the gulf and caribbean has been pretty brutal overall except the times it drops for a few days at a time. In fact look for it to increase even more next week when our friend the east coast trough sets up. And like miamiwx said its always hot in June, we're flirting with upper 90's here in South LA and it doesn't lead to anything above normal in the gulf.
Not to get off subject from this thread but just wanted to show you the graphics below that show that since the middle of May overall shear has been near to below average over the GOM with Instability average to slightly above average, but most important instability has been much higher than at least the last 4 years if not longer across the GOM.
Conditions over the Atlantic Ocean east of FL over the Bahamas on northward has also been better than the last few years with shear below average and instability near average since the middle of May or so.
These two spots are going to be the hot spots this year, IMO.
Basically all in all anything north of 20N in the Subtropics is at least somewhat favorable to favorable for tropical/subtropical all season. South of 20N is the complete opposite nearly with hostile conditions and plentiful SAL and dry air.
