Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 93L)

[blp]

Is this thread for the first area that recurves or the second that hangs around longer? The second area on the Euro shows it a little further West. I think that one might miss the first weakness.

[lordkev]

This is for the first that has already exited Africa. I don't think the second has made it to water yet, has it?

[wxman57]

Looks like the GFS/EC develop a weak low that recurves by 45W. Big gap between high centers around then. Doubt it will amount to much. NHC's 60% chance of development is quite high for a wave that lacks convection and has only marginal model support.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%-70%

Shower activity has increased over the past 24 hours in association
with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next several days while the system moves west-
northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[abajan]

Looks like the GFS/EC develop a weak low that recurves by 45W. Big gap between high centers around then. Doubt it will amount to much. NHC's 60% chance of development is quite high for a wave that lacks convection and has only marginal model support.

Well, it's even higher now.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS/EC develop a weak low that recurves by 45W. Big gap between high centers around then. Doubt it will amount to much. NHC's 60% chance of development is quite high for a wave that lacks convection and has only marginal model support.

Well, it's even higher now.

18z GFS develops this within 5 days into a strong TS then it looks to become a major hurricane as it recurves over the Central Atlantic. I am sure that us why the nhc raised development chances as the GFS develops this within 5 days. Looks like a big ace pumper for the ATL. Convection is on the increase.

Should be an invest very soon. Yet again, another possible storm out of the MDR.

18Z GFS showing a MAJOR hurricane which eventually goes on to hit the Azores (though it weakens a little on its approach):

[LarryWx]

If this becomes a TS east of 50 W while still within the MDR, it would make an unreal FIVE! The record high for a strong Niño for the 17 seasons before 2015 was only three, set in 1899! What an MDR season we're having with never a dull moment!

[floridasun78]

i am confuse it spin i see by 30w or one more to east ??? i put this in other topic post

[gatorcane]

i am confuse it spin i see by 30w or one more to east ??? i put this in other topic post

I see the spin you are talking about further west but the models are thinking the area the NHC has marked is the area that will eventually form into something, the area further west may just merge with the NHC marked area.

This is not to say the models are correct. We have a very active ITCZ with an elongated trough where something might spin up anywhere along this trough.

[gatorcane]

Here is a WV loop of the United States and you can see an anomalously strong trough heading east with a powerful upper-level low heading east over the Ohio River valley. It is this low that ends up combining with another low from over Eastern Canada and forms another powerful upper-level low which erodes the ridge across the Central Atlantic which should allow whatever forms here to recurve over the Central Atlantic.

The reason for such strong upper-level low and troughs for this time of year? Typhoon Kilo - it has inserted some energy into the Jet stream which has caused this. Pretty cool to see how something on the others side of the world can do this.

[Hammy]

GFS already has a hurricane by 120 hours as per latest run--this should be an invest by the end of tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%-80%

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of disturbed weather several hundred miles
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next few days days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Gustywind]

Always no invest a bit surprising with these percentages.?

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 93L