Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[sma10]

I can give you a late August track...Charley formed in the Southern Antilles and tracked WNW to just west of Jamaica before making its move north over Cuba and to Punta Gorda.

Yes, my point exactly. It's been an extremely long time since we've seen a Cabo Verde system track into the Eastern Caribbean, cross the Caribbean, and then curve into Cuba/Florida in October. In fact, I can't remember even 1 instance

Usually this time of year I don't even bother looking at Africa any more because anything that develops in that area of the Atlantic post 9/25 or so, is almost always a sure-fire recurve before the islands. Very interesting track, if it is realized.

About the only way something makes it all of the way across this late in Sep. is if it doesn't develop into a TC before 50W in most cases. The latest TC genesis of any storm E of 50W that made it all of the way to the Conus is 9/25.

Not surprised by this stat Larry. It will be interesting to watch this pouch as it's progged to only reach 35W by 9/25. Even so, the Euro/GFS are not bullish on development until after 50W so I imagine this won't challenge the genesis record.

[CycloneGuru]

https://twitter.com/JeanSuriel/status/778308510522208256/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Found this off mikes weather page

Translated for you
"GFS forecast model places a storm next week traveling south of the region in the Caribbean Sea. Probable hurricane."

[cycloneye]

Joan 1988 is very good analog for the GFS low runner.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I like Hazel as an analog. Also, around the same time period. This one may end up farther west but ECMWF seems a little similar. Think intensity does not get near Hazel.

[Alyono]

Thinking Isidore or Lili are better analogs than Joan as there are no indications as of yet that this will be confined to the southern Caribbean

[StormClouds63]

Ivan (2004) was a "low runner" too.
Ivan track: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/Ivan_2004_track.png/800px-Ivan_2004_track.png

Inez (1966) track is worth a look as well.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/Inez_1966_track.png/800px-Inez_1966_track.png?1474405105956

[Bocadude85]

Maybe hurricane Cleo could be an analog...though she developed in August.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo#/media/File%3ACleo_1964_track.png

[Alyono]

looking at the MU 10m winds, this is forecasting a hurricane at Aruba

[cycloneye]

I understand Blake not buying this for now given how the MDR has been performing.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/778322876244094977

[Hurricaneman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

My thinking is there may be something in that area in 10 days time and if it's anything like the gfs then this could be a huge problem for Jamaica, Cuba, and possibly the Florida peninsula but as we all know it could change

[xcool22]

I understand Blake not buying this for now given how the MDR has been performing.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/778322876244094977

I agree with Eric Blake

[Dean4Storms]

A Hurricane Hazel analog is pretty good to use here. Doesn't develop until it is in the Carib. Sea and then maybe a turn northward behind a Ridge a few hundred miles further West and we're talking early Oct.

[WeatherEmperor]

228 hrs over Venezuela. All it takes is 50 miles north or south means the difference between going over land or the Carib sea




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[cycloneye]

Nicaragua landfall.

[WeatherEmperor]

300 hrs fantasy land. Landfall in Central America. One thing to note is close proximity to land. Margin of error is small. Could make the difference between a hurricane in the Carib Sea or death over Venezuela.




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[blp]

Nicaragua landfall.

Very different upper environment similar to the 6z run. Also the land interaction keeps it in check. If stronger it will feel the tug.

[abajan]

I wonder if it will appear on the 8 PM TWO. We'll know shortly.
EDIT: It doesn't.

[cycloneye]

Here it is.

[cycloneye]

I wonder if it will appear on the 8 PM TWO. We'll know shortly.
EDIT: It doesn't.

IMO,they may be waiting to see how the models do in the 00z cycle.

[hurricanehunter69]

Definite Buzz about this one folks! Not just here; But everywhere else I've checked as well!