#42 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:52 pm
Ntxw wrote:weathaguyry wrote:17/9/4 I'm not seeing many strong signals for above average, however there aren't many strong signals for below average, so I would say that near-slightly above average seems reasonable
Last year with an unfavorable weak La Nina, active Atlantic and a falling PDO the EPAC still managed over 180 units of ACE! What conditions do you see that is less than 2016? if anything, they look even better
True, I guess those numbers are pretty conservative, but if the Atlantic gets going earlier this year, with some Hurricanes in July/August, that may put a cap on the EPAC storms rolling out, and by my understanding the most active time of year for storms in the EPAC is usually August (Please correct me if I am wrong, because I'm not familiar with the EPAC as much) Also, there weren't many good quality Atlantic storms until the PDO crash in late September, without that the Atlantic would've been fairly quiet, with maybe some more messy sheared storms in October. Also the latest CFS forecasts shows some increased precip for the Atlantic Tropics, and the MDR seems to be warming as of late, but still, anything can happen and I've only been tracking hurricanes since 2015, when I was still only 12 years old
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
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