Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro further north. Has this bearing down on Texas as a modest TS.



Looks like each time the models show that the high is strong and well in place it moves west, and has trouble intensifying. Each time the high is depicted as weaker and it moves north, it strengthens. Seems that the WGOM/BOC has more dry air to limit development, compared to the NWGOM/NGOM.

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting that the Euro strengthens it as it moves inland across Texas. It's indicating quite favorable conditions in the far NW Gulf and across Texas.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS paralell is more bullish than the GFS operational.

[Kingarabian]

Can't post the 06z GFS since I'm on mobile, but it has dropped development on this system...

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas by the weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves slowly northwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/874953632126513152

[tolakram]

Euro land-cane?

[srainhoutx]

Euro land-cane?

http://i.imgur.com/FiixX7d.gif

Hermine 2010 developed in a similar fashion with a monsoonal gyre with leftover deep tropical moisture from remnants of an EPAC Cyclone. A massive flood event unfolded across portions of Oklahoma with a tight circulation center that remained warm cored and led to a core rainfall event. It can and does happen.

[gatorcane]

Euro long-range seems to have been overbullish on systems so far this season in the EPAC. So as it is in the long-range Euro, I am skeptical. A blend of the Euro and GFS is more likely.

[NDG]

Euro long-range seems to have been overbullish on systems so far this season in the EPAC. So as it is in the long-range Euro, I am skeptical. A blend of the Euro and GFS is more likely.

I agree, the Euro has been very bullish so far this season in its 7-10 day range, why I am very skeptical when I see it.

[weathaguyry]

Arlene of 2011 comes to mind...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al01/loop_R.shtml

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD this morning...

TROPICAL...

Well, well, well...it appears the 00Z Euro has decided to try to
make things interesting. But in the large scheme of things, not
much has really changed. The guidance continues to spin up a
tropical cyclone out of an easterly wave interacting with a broad
Central American gyre - and we are now at a range where it`s
really hard to dismiss it out of hand. That`s not to say there
will be development, but it is not merely some fantasy of partial
differential equations. The NHC gives a 20 percent chance of
development in the next 5 days, which seems fair.

Now, the "interesting" part. If you read the long term portion of
the discussion, you`ll recall that the Southwest ridge looks to be
positioned farther north than before. In the GFS, this is of
little consequence - the steering flow continues to drive a low
into Mexico, far south of us. The Euro, on the other hand, decides
to have a little fun. The northern position of the ridge axis
allows a low (that seems to have largely missed the Yucatan) to
drive up into the Gulf. And though the ridge tries to build in,
it`s too late. A tropical depression or weak tropical storm
manages to sneak onshore around Matagorda Bay.

So now you may be asking, "Is this what`s going to happen?". In a
single word, doubtful. Even farther north, the ridge is pretty
stout, and I tend to side with the GFS solution on this one.
Additionally, it`s not the GFS alone on this one - GEFS is pretty
clearly in support of its deterministic counterpart, and MSLP
anomalies in the EPS implies the Euro ensemble is more in this
camp as well, leaving the Euro Op on its own.

I fully expect this Euro run to be more of a fluke - but it does
serve as a reminder to ensure that all our hurricane plans and
kits are refreshed and ready to go.

&&

[Steve]

Joe B's daily update shows trough split with piece backing off W/WSW with the wave coming up from the West Caribbean. Pattern reversal behind the backing off piece of that trough builds ridge over the Western Gulf allowing for intensification of a weaker storm coming up. He thinks either it goes west into Mexico or comes up to the NC/NE Gulf and ECMWF may be splitting the solution. However, he does show that the MJO Phase 2 for this time of year actually has more likely chances of a system in NE Texas than just off the SE TX Coast. That was kind of odd to see, but he does have the graphic up.

In other words, European is splitting the CMC and GFS solutions. GFS seems more likely to me, but it's still way to early to know.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro Paralell has the same track as the Euro into central Texas, but a lot weaker. Seems to be showing increased shear, but its also showing a stronger EPAC storm making landfall over Mexico as well which may be causing the shear.

[Stormcenter]

GFS basically dissipates whatever is in the Gulf into just showers and thunderstorms. Again I still think it's way too early to draw any conclusions
on a possible path until we have something concrete. IMO

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS seems to think this system will not develop. Struggles to get its act together.

[Alyono]

the 0Z EC is a baroclinic development. It has it interacting with an upper low.

MU has an upper high, and it cannot develop

[tropicwatch]

What is the forecast for this ull in the southeastern gulf? Looking a little more interesting with some convection building. Will it be there long enough to sink to the surface?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25.5&lon=-88.5&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&zoom=2

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS and para basically drop any development.

[LarryWx]

After all of this, is the 12Z GFS suggesting that this is going to end up being still another fake W. Caribbean GFS tropical genesis after numerous runs showing a TC? IF so, this would not be the first time the GFS had numerous runs of a fake storm without time slippage. Of course, it is still too early to call this and it may still form. Also, the GFS has not been alone on this as we know. Even the great Euro has shown genesis near there on a number of runs. Let's see what ends up happening.