Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[NDG]

The one thing that the Euro agrees with the GFS is for heavy rains over SE FL over the next 72 hrs, 3-6". With the GFS showing 6-10" I would think that 6" could be a good possibility if we average the difference. There's a lot of moisture moving westward thanks to converging surface winds.

[NDG]

[northjaxpro]

Again, for the poster who keeps on stating this is a coup for the GFS you are not correct. I posted about this earlier this morning. The vorticity for this tropical wave can be traced back to Sept 29, when the EURO picked up on it and the vort has tracked slightly north of due west since that time to current, which is in the Bahamas. The GFS jumped on board to the party late here. Just go back through this thread. as I encouraged earlier.

[ronjon]

Hard to see any tropical cyclone development with this wind shear. What is GFS thinking?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[gatorcane]

Hard to see any tropical cyclone development with this wind shear. What is GFS thinking?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Take a look at the 850MB 0 to 72 hour animation. The GFS is developing the area east of the Bahamas 36-48 hours from now when it is closer to South Florida. Looks like there is a window where the shear abates near South Florida according to the model. The model fully recognizes the high shear zone between now and then.

[NDG]

If any development near the FL Straights it will most likely by subtropical in nature with even the GFS showing 20-30 knots southerly UL winds over the low level vorticity, meaning strongest winds will be well away from the surface low that would develope, IMO.

I could see where a weak low pressure could very well form at the surface with such UL divergence setting up.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If any development near the FL Straights it will most likely by subtropical in nature with even the GFS showing 20-30 knots southerly UL winds over the low level vorticity, meaning strongest winds will be well away from the surface low that would develope, IMO.

I could see where a weak low pressure could very well form at the surface with such UL divergence setting up.

12Z about to crank...We will know in 15 mins if it abandons Idea or sticks to its guns.

[NDG]

12z GFS still shows low pressure developing but weaker and broader, makes more sense.

[northjaxpro]

1010 mb broad Low Pressure shown. on the 12Z GFS run in the Florida Straits within 42 hours.

[joey]

looks like this will be a maimi rain event dont see it getting further north from there doe anyone else thanks

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Again, for the poster who keeps on stating this is a coup for the GFS you are not correct. I posted about this earlier this morning. The vorticity for this tropical wave can be traced back to Sept 29, when the EURO picked up on it and the vort has tracked slightly north of due west since that time to current, which is in the Bahamas. The GFS jumped on board to the party late here. Just go back through this thread. as I encouraged earlier.

Okay. Thank you for understanding. I should say "early Euro" rather than "GFS", meaning that Euro was actually accurate in the past modela.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS back to a borderline tropical storm for South Florida in 42 hours yet NHC has 10% chance of development. Regardless looks rather windy and rainy for us here in South Florida.



Check out the low-level vort:

[gatorcane]

Whoa

[northjaxpro]

Well I have been saying all along that the models were not handling this system well and now they're picking up on a stronger possible tropical cyclone to affect South Florida in a couple of days. Looking at the satellite imagery there is some very deep convection down in the Bahamas and in the Florida Straits region and I'm wondering just how strong the winds are down in that region. I haven't checked the buoys lately but I'm very interested in that. I think the NHC is under estimating the development chances of this system. Currently they have it at only 10% I have to think they will have to increase those percentages for development especially given that that the GFS is showing development within the next couple of days.

[gatorcane]

Blowing rain here in my area already. Squalls coming in off Atlantic.

[northjaxpro]

The 18Z GFS moves this potential TC northwest across the Florida Straits and South Florida and then into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

This will likely be Nate if ASCAT on 90L got TD-winds only. Otherwise this would be Ophelia. The chances IMO are 60% for ASCAT TD while 40% for ASCAT TS.

[toad strangler]

Blowing rain here in my area already. Squalls coming in off Atlantic.

Been happening all day on the Treasure Coast. This morning driving into work I couldn't believe the wind with the showers moving in and said this feels like a strong wave moving in. I have just not been paying attention to it.

[northjaxpro]

NHC in their 8 p.m. tropical weather outlook this evening stated that ship reports just off the Southeast coast of Florida and around the Central Bahamas have reported wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph in squalls around this disturbance. This is quite impressive, even with the pressure gradient with those type of winds occuring down there this evening. There have been some deep convection down in that region all afternoon.

NHC still only going 10% right now, despite what the 18Z GFS was depicting. Well, if GFS 0Z run later this evening ends up still showing this developing, NHC has to raise percentages would you all think? Interesting...

[joey]

NHC in their 8 p.m. tropical weather outlook this evening stated that ship reports just off the Southeast coast of Florida and around the Central Bahamas have reported wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph in squalls around this disturbance. This is quite impressive, even with the pressure gradient with those type of winds occuring down there this evening. There have been some deep convection down in that region all afternoon.

NHC still only going 10% right now, despite what the 18Z GFS was depicting. Well, if GFS 0Z run later this evening ends up still showing this developing, NHC has to raise percentages would you all think? Interesting...

How far to the. East is this from south fl could the odds go up at 5 am if it still has time to form ?