Western Caribbean disturbance - is INVEST 90L

[toad strangler]

Euro still going with EGOM solution. Note the winds and weather well to the SE of the system indicating a sloppy system:

https://s1.postimg.org/1xjokskjvz/ecmwf ... watl_7.png

Looks similar to TS Andrea from 2013

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Andrea_(2013)

[wxman57]

Looks like a weak-ish sheared TS into northern FL Sunday in the 12Z Euro. Not unreasonable. Mostly a rain impact in Florida. I'd buy this solution much more than the Canadian with a major hurricane into SE FL then heading for Gulf Coast.

[gatorcane]

Hard right turn on Euro at 168:

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like a weak-ish sheared TS into northern FL Sunday in the 12Z Euro. Not unreasonable. Mostly a rain impact in Florida. I'd buy this solution much more than the Canadian with a major hurricane into SE FL then heading for Gulf Coast.

Agreed. This setup seems very June-like. A sheared weak to moderate TS is very possible.

[gatorcane]

This setup as depicted by the ECMWF would bring coastal flooding to the Tampa area with onshore flow. Let us hope it does not trend stronger in subsequent runs.

[ronjon]

This setup as depicted by the ECMWF would bring coastal flooding to the Tampa area with onshore flow. Let us hope it does not trend stronger in subsequent runs.

Absolutely - we escaped flooding with Irma - not sure with this set up. It does appear to originate from that CA gyre which seems to me it'll be broad and take time to organize.

[BYG Jacob]

Look down in the SW Caribbean north of Panama. Convection is on the increase as the gyre develops. The area should lift north this week.

Convection, convection everywhere.

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM into Mobile with 991 mb storm. Anybody post the 12z UKMET?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017100212&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[DESTRUCTION5]

Today's 12z Euro was the most consolidated version of any model run I have seen yet. Makes most sense track wise as well with a October like cold front sweeping thru gulf coast.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

not trusting any intensity model. that water is boiling and there wont be much upper atmosphere resistance. you could easily have a hermine or wilma like storm and track

[NDG]

At this point I wouldn't be paying too much attention to the Euro's forecast on strength of this possible system, it tends to show systems much weaker than what they usually get. UL winds forecast do not look that horrible.

[otowntiger]

not trusting any intensity model. that water is boiling and there wont be much upper atmosphere resistance. you could easily have a hermine or wilma like storm and track

Doesn't mater about high sst's when shear could lop the top off like an ugly hedge, lol!

[NDG]

My immediate concern from this possible system will be at least the heavy rains, not a good thing for east central FL where area lakes are so high and St John River basin still on flood stage, yesterday's heavy rains over Brevard County not helping the situation either.

[TheStormExpert]

So much for the October major hurricane everyone was talking about. Wasn’t looking forward to one either!

[chris_fit]

So much for the October major hurricane everyone was talking about. Wasn’t looking forward to one either!

It's only Oct 2nd - Just sayin'

[gatorcane]

The Euro has been showing a similar solution since 12Z Saturday - a low develops and moves slowly north into the NW Caribbean/Yucatan area then into the Southern Gulf. It then turns NE into the FL peninsula anywhere from the Big Bend area down to SW Florida with the most recent runs near big bend or Nature coast of Florida. So that is some pretty good consistency. Meanwhile the other models are all over the place.

[Alyono]

So much for the October major hurricane everyone was talking about. Wasn’t looking forward to one either!

often happens in late October or even November in a niña

[fci]

not trusting any intensity model. that water is boiling and there wont be much upper atmosphere resistance. you could easily have a hermine or wilma like storm and track

Please. Again with the Armageddon type post.
"Hermine", "Wilma"????
"Catastrophe" in earlier post...
How about a possible sheared TS like the Pro Mets are saying?

[toad strangler]

So much for the October major hurricane everyone was talking about. Wasn’t looking forward to one either!

really?

[CyclonicFury]

So much for the October major hurricane everyone was talking about. Wasn’t looking forward to one either!

We're only 2 days into the month. Remember as late as August 20th people were saying we'd have no majors all season yet we had a category 4 make landfall in Texas 5 days later. This likely won't be a major hurricane but that does not mean we won't get another one before season's end.