Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles (now Invest 92L)
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
We could have a Caribbean cruiser with this one. Why no model support?
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
I mentioned a couple days ago that GFS was hinting at this developing.
It was kinda on again and off again for 850mb vort.
Convection is really going to town now.
Hitting 50W now where things usually start to heat up.
It was kinda on again and off again for 850mb vort.
Convection is really going to town now.
Hitting 50W now where things usually start to heat up.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
700mb vort is well developed.
Very likely going to run thru mid Carib.
Could be one of those classic west-Carib RI TCs.
Need to dig into the models to check the setup.
Very likely going to run thru mid Carib.
Could be one of those classic west-Carib RI TCs.
Need to dig into the models to check the setup.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
Models completely missing the boat on this one.
GFS and Euro showing practically no initialization of the LL vorts.
Very evident on CIMSS and just looking at the convection.
GFS and Euro showing practically no initialization of the LL vorts.
Very evident on CIMSS and just looking at the convection.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
CMC sends it out to sea because it develops it too early. It is a very large system and will take some time to consolidate and develop, hence getting further west and providing a seed for the caribbean and being a caribbean cruiser. This could be bad news for the caribbean, and then we will have to watch it very closely. GFS shows multiple cold fronts and troughs coming down about 7 days out, when this could be in the W Carib.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:CMC sends it out to sea because it develops it too early. It is a very large system and will take some time to consolidate and develop, hence getting further west and providing a seed for the caribbean and being a caribbean cruiser. This could be bad news for the caribbean, and then we will have to watch it very closely. GFS shows multiple cold fronts and troughs coming down about 7 days out, when this could be in the W Carib.
Latest GFS is also developing the vort and moving it NW to east of Bahamas and then OTS.
Very obviuous with the surface as an open wave and closed at 700mb, this will very likely run the Carib.
If this comes into the W Carib as a Cat 1 or 2, it could easily be one of those bad boys with a curve to the CONUS.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
If this runs the Carib, about 132 hrs out is when it should get near the Yucatan.
UL conditions clear as a bell, ripe for intensification.
UL conditions clear as a bell, ripe for intensification.
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- SouthDadeFish
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
The 06Z GFS shows at least 20 kt of westerly shear throughout the Caribbean and GOMEX in 120+ hours. There is a huge upper-level trough over the Gulf. Those conditions aren't very favorable for TC development.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
SouthDadeFish wrote:The 06Z GFS shows at least 20 kt of westerly shear throughout the Caribbean and GOMEX in 120+ hours. There is a huge upper-level trough over the Gulf. Those conditions aren't very favorable for TC development.
Didn't Franklin have even higher shear NE of its LLC when it was in the W Carib?
Shear can create lift and fire off convection.
Its then a matter of the deep convection pushing the circulation down to the surface.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
GCANE wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:The 06Z GFS shows at least 20 kt of westerly shear throughout the Caribbean and GOMEX in 120+ hours. There is a huge upper-level trough over the Gulf. Those conditions aren't very favorable for TC development.
Didn't Franklin have even higher shear NE of its LLC when it was in the W Carib?
Shear can create lift and fire off convection.
Its then a matter of the deep convection pushing the circulation down to the surface.
If there is positive vorticity in the upper-troposphere upshear of the TC, then yes, the shear can induce lift. This is related to quasigeostrophic omega arguments. However, I wouldn't say the presence of some shear is favorable for TC development after the genesis/weak TS stage. I'm not saying genesis is impossible, I just wouldn't call the forecast conditions favorable for TC development.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
This time of year a developed storm will move slowly and might meander around the Caribbean like Mitch so longer range forecast is problematic.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
SouthDadeFish wrote:GCANE wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:The 06Z GFS shows at least 20 kt of westerly shear throughout the Caribbean and GOMEX in 120+ hours. There is a huge upper-level trough over the Gulf. Those conditions aren't very favorable for TC development.
Didn't Franklin have even higher shear NE of its LLC when it was in the W Carib?
Shear can create lift and fire off convection.
Its then a matter of the deep convection pushing the circulation down to the surface.
If there is positive vorticity in the upper-troposphere upshear of the TC, then yes, the shear can induce lift. This is related to quasigeostrophic omega arguments. However, I wouldn't say the presence of some shear is favorable for TC development after the genesis/weak TS stage. I'm not saying genesis is impossible, I just wouldn't call the forecast conditions favorable for TC development.
Agreed. Once a TC forms, then shear becomes much more problematic. Thanks.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
though most of the convection is on the east side of the wave axis there is at least two vorts one well to the south ( most likely to survive) and the to the north without convection. Is is maintaining convection quite well actually and shear on the southern portion is low.
the cmc shoots the northern vort north west because it also wants to develop that convection well north so the two systems interact.
otherwise the steering is to the west or wnw.. definately needs to be watched. very surprised not even a mention from the NHC..
the cmc shoots the northern vort north west because it also wants to develop that convection well north so the two systems interact.
otherwise the steering is to the west or wnw.. definately needs to be watched. very surprised not even a mention from the NHC..
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
Aric Dunn wrote:though most of the convection is on the east side of the wave axis there is at least two vorts one well to the south ( most likely to survive) and the to the north without convection. Is is maintaining convection quite well actually and shear on the southern portion is low.
the cmc shoots the northern vort north west because it also wants to develop that convection well north so the two systems interact.
otherwise the steering is to the west or wnw.. definately needs to be watched. very surprised not even a mention from the NHC..
No special mention of the NHC good news... should stay a twave hopefully So great for us in the EC
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 08N52W to 18N49W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 46W-55W and
a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near
13N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from
07N-18N between 43W-54W.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
Gustywind wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:though most of the convection is on the east side of the wave axis there is at least two vorts one well to the south ( most likely to survive) and the to the north without convection. Is is maintaining convection quite well actually and shear on the southern portion is low.
the cmc shoots the northern vort north west because it also wants to develop that convection well north so the two systems interact.
otherwise the steering is to the west or wnw.. definately needs to be watched. very surprised not even a mention from the NHC..
No special mention of the NHC good news... should stay a twave hopefully So great for us in the EC
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 08N52W to 18N49W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 46W-55W and
a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near
13N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from
07N-18N between 43W-54W.
Well I would not write it off just yet. there is cleraly a low level vort on the north end. the cmc, gfs, and 12z euro eventually develop it in some manner. as for it being any sort of threat to the islands that was never really an issue. shear is lowering especially on the south side. chances are not zero.. more around 30 to 40 percent in a few days.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
Looks like a definite rotation around 12N 52W, at mid levels. Would think that the NHC would have given it a mention or % chance for development.
TG
TG
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