Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[norva]

Seems a Florida hit keeps coming up in these model runs

[AdamFirst]

The theme seems the same: a cyclone in the Western Caribbean picked up by an approaching front. Now it remains to be seen what kind of analog we should be expecting...maybe like Hurricane Michelle in 2001, or maybe even a Wilma. Maybe it'll be just an extra surge of tropical energy picked up by the front and it'll amount to nothing at all.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems a Florida hit keeps coming up in these model runs

Not really, unless you trust the more unreliable models.

[Newbie]

AdamFirst, What is the earliest you think we will know?

[AdamFirst]

AdamFirst, What is the earliest you think we will know?

Likely not until late next week. Most of the models showing development are still beyond the 7 day range, and things can wildly change between now and then. As always, take our site's personal disclaimer in mind:

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[Newbie]

AdamFirst,

Thank you. I'm trying to figure out if it will head over Nassau. It seems this time of year hurricanes usually head north east, which doesn't look so good for me and my plans. I will take the posts here as opinions.

Fingers crossed it's nothing.

[AdamFirst]

AdamFirst,

Thank you. I'm trying to figure out if it will head over Nassau. It seems this time of year hurricanes usually head north east, which doesn't look so good for me and my plans. I will take the posts here as opinions.

Fingers crossed it's nothing.

You're more than welcome to draw up an opinion from our posts, especially from our Pro Mets (members with blue badges). I wouldn't worry about it right now, though. Keep your plans as scheduled, but just keep an eye out here and on the weather in general as we get into later this upcoming week.

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.2N 81.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2017 120 15.7N 81.8W 1002 36
1200UTC 27.10.2017 132 17.5N 81.6W 997 40
0000UTC 28.10.2017 144 19.7N 81.3W 992 49

[toad strangler]

0Z GFS finally shows Caribbean side low. A strung out multiple vort mess but it's definitely a step towards the rest of global models.

[USTropics]

00z GFS at 228 hours showing development again:

[blp]

00z GFS at 228 hours showing development again:

[]https://i.imgur.com/lAmsKHY.png[/img]

Problem I see is it keeps developing the wrong vorticity. It develops an EPAC crossover vorticity too far West. Instead of the purely Carribean based one.

Unfortunately I dont think we will see anything different until closer to the time this starts forming.

Maybe the Euro follows suit again tonight like last night. I can't predict anymore. Hard to believe anything when the two best models are having consistency issues.

[blp]

00z Ukmet 144hrs

[LarryWx]

Take it fwiw since it is only the not so good CMC ensembles (GPS) doing anything like this and the CMC often overdoes geneses and development: the 0Z has a whopping ~13 of its 20 members become a H with 10 of these hitting FL as a H! Even the 12Z had 8 Hs hit FL. the Hs hit anywhere from the Big Bend on around to SE FL with the Keys getting many of the hits. The hit dates have a wide range of 10/28-11/5. All geneses are in the W Caribbean. Genesis dates range from 10/23 to 10/31, meaning it is likely keying on at least 2 different systems. In addition to those 10 FL H hits, a TS hits the Big Bend and 1-2 other TCs skirt the SE coast. Also a TD/TS hits TX.

The much more reliable 0Z GEFS only has 4 Hs although 3 of them hit the Keys and skirt SE FL 10/29-30. Geneses are mainly 10/26-9.

Based on these 2 ensemble runs, I'd say that the highest threat period to FL, mainly south including Keys, is looking to be 10/29-31. But any possible TC could still easily pass SE of FL.

[LarryWx]

Don't look now but the 0Z Euro has a strong TC in the NW Caribbean at hour 192!

Edit: This becomes a H soon afterward in a very low shear environment and is moving NE day 10 still in the NW Caribbean. It is hard to say if that would later hit the Keys/S FL. It could still pass south of there from this position.

Edit 2: The 0Z EPS has 2 members which directly hit FL 11/1-2, one Keys and S peninsula and other Big Bend.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Don't look now but the 0Z Euro has a strong TC in the NW Caribbean at hour 192!

Edit: This becomes a H soon afterward in a very low shear environment and is moving NE day 10 still in the NW Caribbean. It is hard to say if that would later hit the Keys/S FL. It could still pass south of there from this position.

Edit 2: The 0Z EPS has 2 members which directly hit FL 11/1-2, one Keys and S peninsula and other Big Bend.

Yikes...Starts to take shape in as little as 72 hrs as well. No more fantacy time frame. Wilma or Michelle? Too early to tell.

[SFLcane]

Ok euro....

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/922078435668844544

[NDG]

Like I said a few days ago, it would take a very strong cold front to sweep across the Caribbean Sea to end this hurricane season in the western Basin, the cold front next week will not be strong enough to do so.

[toad strangler]

Like I said a few days ago, it would take a very strong cold front to sweep across the Caribbean Sea to end this hurricane season in the western Basin, the cold front next week will not be strong enough to do so.

I think many of us have been musing about this for a couple weeks. It felt pretty odd for a long stretch there to have the big two models with no development while NAVGEM, CMC, UKMET, NASA, etc latched on to Caribbean system.

[toad strangler]

GFS was a strung out multiple vort mess @ 00z and 6z GFS even less enthused.

[TheStormExpert]

Here is a saved loop of the 00z Euro with a Major Hurricane Philippe in the Northwestern Caribbean on Halloween. Has it heading NE towards the western tip of Cuba on Nov. 1st.