Eastern Gulf of Mexico Area of Interest
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low? - STWO=30%-40%
So far the low pressure still at mid-to-upper levels. Euro develops the low off the SW coast of FL by tomorrow morning then slowly drifts it NW. It actually gets shunted back southward into the GOM from 48-72 hrs before it heads NE into big bend of FL. Both new GFS and Euro develop 1003 mb tropical storm by 72 hrs.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low? - STWO=30%-40%
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Shear is way too strong though, is it not?
It looks like there's an area of decreasing shear near it.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low? - STWO=30%-40%
19 days until the official start of the 2018 Hurricane Season. The GFS model was showing different scenarios of tropical development last week. Now the SE GOM disturbance not yet an Invest but is being mentioned by the NHC this afternoon with a 40% chance of tropical development the next 5 days………and so it begins. A reminder that now is the time to be prepared for the upcoming season.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low? - STWO=30%-40%
Visually, convection has improved since last night. Doesn't appear to be very organized at the surface right now, though.
Wind shear will be a major inhibiting factor, with a constant displacement of convection to the E/ENE over Florida. We'll most likely see a system that struggles to maintain any sort of cloud coverage over an LLC, if one does develop:
You can see in the higher resolution SST images that the Loop Current does extend far enough north to support marginal temperatures for further organization.
Wind shear will be a major inhibiting factor, with a constant displacement of convection to the E/ENE over Florida. We'll most likely see a system that struggles to maintain any sort of cloud coverage over an LLC, if one does develop:
You can see in the higher resolution SST images that the Loop Current does extend far enough north to support marginal temperatures for further organization.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low? - STWO=30%-40%
18z surface analysis.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low? - STWO=30%-40%
If this were to be named this week, it would become the earliest in the season G.O.M. TC or STS on record for a Gulf genesis.
#1 of 1933 was a W. Caribbean genesis that reached the Gulf as a TS late on 5/15:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
#1 of 1933 was a W. Caribbean genesis that reached the Gulf as a TS late on 5/15:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low? - STWO=30%-40%
These early weak hybrid systems this time of the year have become almost the norm every year.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low? - STWO=30%-40%
ronjon wrote:So far the low pressure still at mid-to-upper levels. Euro develops the low off the SW coast of FL by tomorrow morning then slowly drifts it NW. It actually gets shunted back southward into the GOM from 48-72 hrs before it heads NE into big bend of FL. Both new GFS and Euro develop 1003 mb tropical storm by 72 hrs.
i zoomed in possible landfall. Mexico beach area, well west of the big bend.
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low - STWO=30%-40%
And so it begins
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- wxman57
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low - STWO=30%-40%
I don't think that there was ever any thinking that a low wasn't going to develop in the Gulf early this week. The big question was whether the NHC would consider calling it a TD or STD before it moves ashore. Now that the folks at the NHC are back from their hurricane preparedness tour, it looks like they are thinking of upgrading the low on Tue or Wed. With moderate shear and coolish SSTs, this will only be a rain maker - for areas that need rain. Little chance of any wind impact.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low
Good early-season warmup. Helps me get all my model links back together.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low
Latest Gusts according to 3k NAM
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low
NAM is nuts. no way. ill eat crow if i am wrong. Still fixing IRMA damage round these parts..
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:NAM is nuts. no way. ill eat crow if i am wrong. Still fixing IRMA damage round these parts..
NAM always overdoes TCs, don't look at it as it's not meant for tropical systems
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low
NotSparta wrote:SEASON_CANCELED wrote:NAM is nuts. no way. ill eat crow if i am wrong. Still fixing IRMA damage round these parts..
NAM always overdoes TCs, don't look at it as it's not meant for tropical systems
Did ok with Harvey. Of course this isn't typical so it is always a wait and see as the environment will be unfavorable but a 45-50 knot tropical storm like Arlene or Alberto is possible.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:NAM is nuts. no way. ill eat crow if i am wrong. Still fixing IRMA damage round these parts..
NAM only drops it to 1000mb or so. It's not that unreasonable
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low? - STWO=30%-40%
NDG wrote:These early weak hybrid systems this time of the year have become almost the norm every year.
What’s unusual is that it’s in the Gulf of Mexico. It feels like these pre-season hybrid systems usually happen on the Atlantic side of Florida, and off the Carolinas. Looking at the data, the more aggressive solutions of the ECM & NAM don’t seem out of the realm of possibilities.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low
00z GFS has a bit more consolidation of vorticity this run through 12 hours compared to it's previous runs, similar to the 12z run of the ECMWF at the same time frame:
00z GFS:
12z ECMWF:
00z GFS:
12z ECMWF:
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low
There's a bit more organization from the 00z GFS run, but a similar outcome to previous runs (doesn't move as far north as the ECMWF solution, thus remains over the NE GOM). The vorticity becomes elongated and the system appears to be transitioning to frontal after 72 hours:
Rain will remain plentiful over Florida, especially enhanced convergence along the east coast of FL:
Rain will remain plentiful over Florida, especially enhanced convergence along the east coast of FL:
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Re: Gulf of Mexico: Possible development Sub-Tropical or Tropical Low
it is always fun watching cyclogenesis on radar.. the sheared environment makes it that much more interesting.
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