WeatherEmperor wrote:April 4 update from CSU goes with 13/5/2
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A bit higher than I was expecting, I think.
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WeatherEmperor wrote:April 4 update from CSU goes with 13/5/2
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cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1113818509669163008
vbhoutex wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1113818509669163008
Dr. Klotzbach gave a very good and thorough presentation this morning during the release! It was so thorough and compelling no one had any questions. That is unusual when you have 115 weather nerds, NHC employees, NWS employees, and Broadcast meteorologists in one room!
That is the million dollar question. Too many parameters to have that kind of predictability this early.SFLcane wrote:vbhoutex wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1113818509669163008
Dr. Klotzbach gave a very good and thorough presentation this morning during the release! It was so thorough and compelling no one had any questions. That is unusual when you have 115 weather nerds, NHC employees, NWS employees, and Broadcast meteorologists in one room!
Quote from Jeff Masters...
April hurricane season forecasts have little or no skill
On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no skill (Figure 3), since they must deal with the so-called "spring predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Last year’s CSU April forecast called for a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2018, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. This forecast ended up being successful, as the season actually had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 129.
If we only knew were those 13 storms are going to track?
SFLcane wrote:vbhoutex wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1113818509669163008
Dr. Klotzbach gave a very good and thorough presentation this morning during the release! It was so thorough and compelling no one had any questions. That is unusual when you have 115 weather nerds, NHC employees, NWS employees, and Broadcast meteorologists in one room!
Quote from Jeff Masters...
April hurricane season forecasts have little or no skill
On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no skill (Figure 3), since they must deal with the so-called "spring predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Last year’s CSU April forecast called for a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2018, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. This forecast ended up being successful, as the season actually had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 129.
If we only knew were those 13 storms are going to track?
Kazmit wrote:Interesting forecast from the CSU- 13/5/2 is a near average season. We’ll have to see what happens with El Niño.
TheStormExpert wrote:What time does TSR release their updated forecast numbers?
al78 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:What time does TSR release their updated forecast numbers?
Within the next two hours.
wxman57 wrote:Kazmit wrote:Interesting forecast from the CSU- 13/5/2 is a near average season. We’ll have to see what happens with El Niño.
The 30-yr average is 14/7/3. His 80 ACE is well below average. Analog years we're using had an average ace < 50.
cycloneye wrote:You can check all the predictions from the experts and agencies/private entities on the list at first post
Sorry but I never add GWO and this year is the same.
OuterBanker wrote:cycloneye wrote:You can check all the predictions from the experts and agencies/private entities on the list at first post
Sorry but I never add GWO and this year is the same.
I agree on not including GWO. I have a hard time believing their 100 % claim.
I also have a problem with their rather exorbitant fees.
Just wondering though if anyone here has ever bitten the bullet and purchased anything from them.
I personally have never gone to a fortune teller. I feel that that's what GWO is like.
jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has a good track record past several years, is going for slightly above normal activity with forecast ACE of 125. They are one of the few outlets that forecast landfall numbers. They are forecasting two US landfalls, which is above normal as well
They note that their outlook is "subject to considerable remaining uncertainties due to conflicting stratospheric and tropospheric indicators in recent
months". The tropospheric indicators favor a very active season, while the stratospheric ones favor a quieter one.
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_0 ... 1fd1ba.pdf
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