2019 TCRs

[galaxy401]

Hurricane Juliette has been released.

[galaxy401]

Jerry and Lorenzo have been released by the NHC.

They did not downgrade Lorenzo. It remains a Category 5. They noted the uncertainly among the 6-hour fixes of Dvorak with a wide range of estimates. They kept it a 5 partially due to the impressive satellite appearance.

[MarioProtVI]

Jerry and Lorenzo have been released by the NHC.

They did not downgrade Lorenzo. It remains a Category 5. They noted the uncertainly among the 6-hour fixes of Dvorak with a wide range of estimates. They kept it a 5 partially due to the impressive satellite appearance.

Seems like they used the "single frame analysis" thing here in Lorenzo. IMO, 2 hours of T7.0 does not justify having an upgrade to C5. Also ADT sucks at estimates because of cloud top problems. Should've been downed to 135 kt or even 130 kt (also surprised why the first peak wasn't raised to that value).

[cycloneye]

Here is why they kept at 140 kts.From report:

The 140-kt peak intensity of Lorenzo at 0300 UTC 29 September is based primarily on a
Dvorak data-T pattern of T-7.0/140 kt that lasted from 0100 UTC to 0300 UTC with corresponding
ADT values of 143 kt. In real time, special 0130 UTC Dvorak classifications of T7.0/7.0 were
provided by both TAFB and SAB, while a SATCON fix showed a similarly high value of 135 kt.
No reconnaissance data was available at the time of Lorenzo’s estimated peak intensity.

[CrazyC83]

The uncertainty is definitely enormous there. However, the satellite signature was more impressive than even Dorian was when it was at its peak intensity. But as we see in the WPAC a lot, it can be so hard to analyze high-end hurricanes when no Recon is available. There is good consensus on the 115 kt intensity at 1800Z and the 90 kt intensity at 1800Z the following day though.

I'd have made the initial peak 135 kt at 27/0300Z for the same reasoning.

Satellite also blew it with Jerry. At its peak intensity of 90 kt (supported by Recon, a case for 95 kt could also be made), it was around T4.0 which would be 65-70 kt at most.

[aspen]

Jerry and Lorenzo have been released by the NHC.

They did not downgrade Lorenzo. It remains a Category 5. They noted the uncertainly among the 6-hour fixes of Dvorak with a wide range of estimates. They kept it a 5 partially due to the impressive satellite appearance.

I’m not sure what surprises me most: the fact that both are done already, or that Lorenzo survived post-season analysis.

[Nancy Smar]

Tropical Storm Priscilla report has been released.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP192019_Priscilla.pdf

[Nancy Smar]

Subtropical Storm Rebekah report has been released.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko report is up. Peak intensity was 115 kts.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Raymond report is up.

[galaxy401]

Melissa from the Atlantic and Gil from the Pacific have also been released.

For the Pacific that just leaves Flossie, Octave as well as TD 21E for the EPAC and Ema from the CPAC.

Update: ...And Flossie came out a few hours later so now it's just Octave and TD 21E.

[cycloneye]

Melissa from the Atlantic and Gil from the Pacific have also been released.

For the Pacific that just leaves Flossie, Octave as well as TD 21E for the EPAC and Ema from the CPAC.

Hurricane Flossie is also up.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1221894559401037824

[galaxy401]

TD 21-E was also released today as well. Octave is the only storm in the EPAC left.

[CrazyC83]

Operationally, Gabrielle was briefly a remnant low, but that is gone in the post-analysis and the TC duration is continuous. As for 21E, I think the ASCAT passes should have supported an upgrade to TS but I know that the NHC rarely upgrades (or downgrades) from TD to TS or vice versa.

[wxman57]

TS Karen report is out.

[cycloneye]

Fernand is also up.

[CrazyC83]

I would guess that Pablo and Sebastien will be next, since they were pretty straightforward. Dorian should take a while with its plethora of data (as well as Imelda), while Nestor and Olga likely have question marks about their lifespan with significant changes (probably lengthening of the track on both ends) possibly involved.

[DioBrando]

I would guess that Pablo and Sebastien will be next, since they were pretty straightforward. Dorian should take a while with its plethora of data (as well as Imelda), while Nestor and Olga likely have question marks about their lifespan with significant changes (probably lengthening of the track on both ends) possibly involved.

Humberto: "I exist"

[1900hurricane]

Tropical Storm Imelda is out.