Continuing GOM Watch
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
850mb vort is definitely improving per the CIMSS analysis.
I bet we get another yellow at 8PM, maybe 98L as well.
I bet we get another yellow at 8PM, maybe 98L as well.
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tropicwatch
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
Aric Dunn wrote:Well at least they put out a marine warning for it lol
There is one.
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Tropicwatch
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northjaxpro
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
I think given the 850 mb vort signature currently and the recent trend with convection buliding closer to the circulation, I think we will see the second invest to be tagged today. I think 98L will be designated.
I think it is at least invest worthy right now.
I think it is at least invest worthy right now.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
Ive seen worse looks full on TS lol
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
Convective debris from the MS Delta is going to hit this in a couple hours and moisten up the mid layers.
May see this ramp up then.
May see this ramp up then.
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tropicwatch
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
No mention of the gulf low in the 8pm TWO.
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Tropicwatch
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
We've got pressures dropping further west so this may not be the last vort.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
Frank P wrote:Is this thing going to head north or northeast?
Steering is pretty weak, may linger here for a while
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northjaxpro
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
You know it is interesting you mentioned that Nimbus. I think you may have been right in that the trough axis may be trying to cutoff on the tail end of it into.the North Central GOM. Southwesterly shear seems to be relaxing a bit finally in the GOM (actually nort to northwedt shear is occueing now across tge Northern Gulf) and to be frank, I would not be surprised to see another meso vort develop in the next day or two .
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northjaxpro
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
GCANE wrote:Frank P wrote:Is this thing going to head north or northeast?
Steering is pretty weak, may linger here for a while
.
It was showing a very slow drift or crawl to the northeast a few hours ago. But, right now it is in basically very weak steering at this time.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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tropicwatch
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
It appears to me that the low in the gulf is more distinctive than the low along the Carolina's. Really surprised that the NHC didn't mention it. imo
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northjaxpro
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
panamatropicwatch wrote:It appears to me that the low in the gulf is more distinctive than the low along the Carolina's. Really surprised that the NHC didn't mention it. imo
I agree. The Gulf swirl looks about as good as it has to this juncture. Maybe they think the dry airwill eventually infiltrate it put the whammy on it. At the moment, I am not seeng that occuring at the present time.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Aric Dunn
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
The system overall is well on its way. Its closed well defined and convection organized for a sheared system.
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Dean4Storms
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
We’ve got a good breeze from the ESE this evening and low clouds moving WNW in that flow, very uncharacteristic of anything but something tropical trying to develop in the vicinity, this is not normal August weather.
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gatorcane
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
I wouldn’t mention this system either if I were the NHC. Should be onshore tomorrow and the northerly shear looks to only increase.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2
Radar signature very indicative of a tc that is sheared. But the big things is the sw quad right now..
You dont see that type of convective pattern in a non tropical low.. sorry.. i know everyone wants to avoid it lol
You dont see that type of convective pattern in a non tropical low.. sorry.. i know everyone wants to avoid it lol
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...